If the Democrats do not revote Florida and Michigan John McCain will be the next President of the United States. The electoral votes of these two large swing states are critical to victory in the fall. Florida has 27 electoral college votes. Michigan has 17. That is 44 out of 538, a swing 88 votes, more than 15% of the total. It is a virtual certainty that these states will go to John McCain if we do not allow them to participate in the nomination process, so we are talking about a 15% handicap before we even start the race. This is like going into a fight with an even opponent with one hand tied behind your back.
It's even worse. Other voters all over the country will be turned off by the chaos and undemocratic practices of a Democratic Party. There will be some swing voter fallout against a party that nominates a candidate without including all the voters from all the states.
Right now, as everyone knows, furious discussions are underway about how to fix this problem. The options are to have a revote of some sort, or to stiff the delegations of FL and MI. The Clinton campaign is for a revote, and the Obama campaign wants to stiff FL and MI.
I know some will say that Obama has suggested the "compromise" that they split the delegations 50%-50%. This is essentially meaningless since it does not recognize the voters. It's almost an insult. That they have the nerve to even make this non-offer with a straight face is stunning.
I understand the Obama camp's calculus. They think that if FL and MI revote, at least Florida will go to Clinton. Michigan is a toss-up at this point, but they are very nervous about Clinton's momentum. If Clinton wins Pennsylvania by a big margin, then goes on to win revotes in Michigan and Florida big, then it will be very hard for the party to not select her as the nominee. Winning most of the big states, and most of the critical swing states will be impossible to reject.
So Obama thinks that if he can run out the clock on the nominating process that his delegate lead will hold up and the party will have no choice but to nominate him. It is critical to recognize that this is a strategy that wins the battle, but ultimately lays the groundwork for losing the war. What good does it do to get the nomination if you do it in such a way as to insure your defeat in the general election.
The talking points are flying. One thing you hear a lot is, "FL and MI screwed up, It is their problem." This has a ring to it, but it could not be more wrong. It does not matter who screwed up. Many people have some responsibility including the Republican lead Florida Assembly, but it simply doesn't matter who's fault it is.
Again, the real question is: Who is responsible for fixing this mess? It doesn't matter who caused it. It is now the repsonsibility of the Democratic candiates for the office of President of the United States to fix it, and fix it fast. Whoever is our nominee has a responsibility to win the presidency. Both nominees have a responsibility to win the nomination in a manner that preserves their chance to beat John McCain. Obama's strategy to win the nomination virtually insures defeat. As such, it is a completely irresponsible strategy.
The very fact that at this stage Obama is trying to gain the nomination in a manner that results in the Democrats losing should trouble all Democrats. Supporters talk about Obama's vaunted leadership ability. Faced with the reality of the criticality of FL and MI to Democratic victory, how can it not be his responsibility to do this right? He is running for President of the United States and right now he is pursuing a strategy that will destroy the Democrat's chances to win in the fall if he gets the nomination this way. How is this not his responsibility? You don't get any points for being Democratic nominee. You have to win the Presidency too. The Democrats have to win in the fall.
Here is my plea to all of Obama's supporters. Talk to your candidate. Tell him that he has to agree to revote FL and MI. Tell him that he needs to do it, even if it hurts his chances in the Primary, because it preserves his opportunity to win the Presidency of the United States.
It is not too late yet, but if he keeps up his stalling and empty offers of 50-50 "compromises" he is going to back himself into a corner. He will lose support in these states as it becomes clear that he is trying to stiff them, while Clinton is arguing for a revote. He will have no choice but to pull out all the stops in his efforts to run out the clock. If he succeeds in stiffing MI and FL, they will be will be lost in November, and John McCain becomes President. If he fails and these states have a meaningful revote, they will be so angry at him that he will be clobbered in the revote, and Clinton becomes the nominee. The only road to the White House for Barack Obama is to get on the right side of this one. Agree to meaningful revotes and campaign there and win. It's the right thing to do. It's called leadership.
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UPDATE Post discussion closing:
Thank you for considering this diary and voting on this issue. It is clear that most people who commented disagree with me, but the vote is much closer than I would have hoped given the spirit of most of the comments.
In any case, please give this more consideration as the week plays out. I think you will begin to more clearly see the obstruction as each day goes by and it will be bad for Obama to be on the wrong side of this one, no matter what tactical advantage he thinks he has to gain at this point.
In closing this off for today, in anwer to those who say that stiffing FL and MI won't matter in the general election, I just wanted to share one comment from the cross-post on MyDD. I know many here think that site is awful, but it is not as unbalanced as you might think. In any case, here it is, and thanks for your time:
Florida is a throw away now, "Mr and Mrs. Sixpack" in Michigan will vote Democratic regardless of how the state is treated. Wow.
Let's walk through the path to disenfranchisement, shall we? Let's assume the Michigan/Florida problem is not settled in a way that actually includes the will of the voters in Michigan -- say they aren't seated at all or the delegates are split 50/50.
I'm a typical Michigan voter and this story has been on the front page of the two major papers on and off for months. I'm at risk of losing my job, my wife has lost hers, I'm surrouding by "for sale" signs in my neighbors' lawns, all the politicians out there seem all so concerned about the ECONOMY but no one seems to give a wet rat's ass what the people of Michigan think.
Am I going to listen to my union? Hell no, they helped get me into this mess. Jennifer Granholm? Kwame Kilpatrick? What has a Democrat done for me lately?
Now here comes the Democratic Convention. Oh look! The entire country matters except for the people in my state and Florida. Our chairs are essentially empty. Awesome how voters in Guam got a say in this but not me...because the Democrats in my state tried to push our agenda to the forefront and the party shut us down in favor of the will of New Hampshire. So much for post-convention bump.
Nobody needs to worry about my problems, the national press and the Democratic contender have made it clear I'll vote Democratic no matter how I'm crapped on.
Yeah, watch me.
Good night, and good luck.