With all the uproar about Florida and Michigan I think a reality check is in order.
The bottom line is that even if you count the Florida and Michigan delegates the way Clinton loyalists would like ( and I don’t concede that point at all, especially in Michigan), I think you get this.
1. Obama still leads in pledged delegates (1457-1426)
2. Obama still leads in votes cast.
3. Obama leads in states won.
4. Obama leads among Senators who have endorsed: (15-13)
5. Obama leads among Governors who have endorsed (11-10)
6. Obama leads in money raised and cash on hand
7. U.S. Representatives are a tossup, Clinton leads by 1 (72-71)
8. The only place that Clinton has any substantive lead is in
Members of the DNC who are super delegates. (139-105).
In the polls Obama runs better against McCain than Clinton, he'll clearly have longer coat tails, and will not energise the Republican Party the way Clinton will.
So lets Look at the remaining states. The likely outcome in some at least is known.
Look at the remaining states. The likely outcome in some at least is known.
Obama wins:
*North Carolina
*Oregon
*Montana
*South Dakota
Clinton wins:
*West Virginia
*Kentucky
Indiana and Pennsylvania are still in play. Even if Clinton wins them it will not be by large margins and she'll gain little ground.
We get to the end of the game, the picture will remain largely as described above and the only way Clinton wins is with superdelegates and then only with the DNC Committee Member super delegates.
So are we really going to allow the nomination to be dictated by DNC insiders, many of them DLC types left over from the McAuliffe regime?
That would be in essence a repeat of the Supreme Court decision giving the 2004 election to Bush. That would be devastating to the Democratic Party.
The remaining 300 + super delegates would be fools to be party to that.
So I say accept the Florida results, redo Michigan and lets get on with things. Enough of all this wailing, flailing and gnashing of teeth. The course it seems to me is clear.
It is also clear to me that this is a balttle not just between two candidates but between two different concepts of what the Democratic party should be. The Dean view vs. the McAuliffe view. Seen that way the necessary outcome is clear. Its time to move on.