Metapocalypse is an ongoing act of protest against the vituperation and invective that has permeated the Netroots during the Presidential primary. Until there is a presumptive Democratic nominee, the author refuses to post any non-meta diaries. See this diary for details. Only you can end the Metapocalypse—Join the mehvolution!
I’ve previously written that I believe the Netroots in general, and DailyKos in particular, are about to experience a long-term period of transformation as a result of the increased importance of online organizing to the Presidential ticket.
I think today was likely the first step in that transformation--the Schism.
Those of us who, for whatever reason, spend upwards of 6-8 hours a day on the blogs (I get paid for it: what's your excuse?) have noticed for some time the stark contrast between DailyKos and MyDD that has developed over the past 2-3 months.
But today, thanks to Alegre and Bob Johnson, that contrast expanded into a Schism: Clinton-supporters leaving DailyKos, Obama supporters leaving MyDD.
This was predictable, and, in a way, inevitable. (It's also getting attention--see Ambinder.)
As I discussed in this diary, the Netroots has yet to experience a Golden Age, where we have a sympathetic administration and a strong legislative contingent taking us seriously. I wrote that
The changes we're likely to see within this next year could have profound ramifications for American political development, and we--the pajama-clad masses--are going to be tasked with determining what works, what doesn't, and what is harmful to our cause of producing Progressive change in Washington and around the country. In many instances, we'll be forced to choose the lesser of two evils; in many other instances, we'll be looking for the greater of two goods. Understanding what our movement is, and where we want to take it during a Democratic administration (a situation we've never had before), is going to be critical if we want to avoid chaos. How should we interact with allied groups when we disagree with their goals or tactics? How do we best advocate President Obama or President Clinton's agenda when dealing with our elected leaders, and how do we leverage our power to influence that agenda without marginalizing ourselves?
I also wrote that I think the most likely outcome of this new political reality is a Netroots fractured into three main wings: the Pragmatists (who will work with the party leadership and the administration to promote the most progressive agenda possible); the Idealists (who will work against the party leadership and the administration when necessary to promote the most progressive agenda possible); and the Organizers (who will leverage the collective strength of the Netroots to create pressure for change at the state and local level).
Originally, I thought the diary sections at DailyKos and MyDD would both become hubs for the Pragmatists. However, given today's events, I now believe that we're in an either/or situation. To wit:
If Obama becomes President
- DailyKos will become the hub for pro-administration Pragmatists.
- MyDD will become the hub for anti-administration Idealists.
If Clinton becomes President
- MyDD will become the hub for pro-administration Pragmatists.
- DailyKos will become the hub for anti-administration Idealists.
(The question is obviously moot should McCain become President, since the whole "Golden Age" will be off the table.)
Now, of course I have caveats for these predictions, such as the fact that DailyKos has such a higher volume of traffic means that we're more likely to have Pragmatists, Idealists and Organizers co-habitating on the threads than MyDD is (their threshold for diaries to hit the Rec List is low enough that a discussion group or listserv of about a dozen and a half people can put whatever they want up, whenever they want to, which makes it easier for a cliquish atmosphere to thrive). But, on the whole, I think this is where the fault lines will be drawn.
So who gains the most from the Schism? If I were to guess, I'd say Arianna Huffington. The emnity between DailyKos and MyDD is about to explode, to the point where I'll be amazed if RedState gets trashed 10% as much as MyDD on the threads here, and vice-versa. We're about to engage in cross-site pie fighting of the highest order--no different than any other intraparty squabble, except for the degree of openness that we'll exhibit, flinging all our shit at one another in front of the entire online audience--and I'm betting the atmosphere gets toxic enough on both dKos and MyDD that the bigger-named, established politicians are going to prefer to get posts up on her site than on either this one or MyDD, just to avoid the bickering.
And who loses most from the Schism? I would think our eventual nominee is most hurt. Again, this split is necessary for the Netroots to maintain both a hand in the agenda-setting in Washington while simultaneously continuing to insist on accountability. But I had hoped that the split wouldn't be between supporters of one candidate against supporters of the other until after the Convention, when the disillusioned would start demanding recognition. Instead, the split isn't between the disillusioned and the passionate, but between two impassioned groups still locked in a primary fight. This scenario means more vituperation, more petty ad hominems, more meaningless and unproductive attack diaries from one side to another, and more cliquishness. In small doses, all of those are tolerable (and, in their own ways, part of the whole Netroots experience). But in other, bigger ways, they represent another major hurdle for the eventual nominee to overcome in growing and activating online supporters.
In some ways, I think the single biggest blow to Netroots unity so far in this election was the loss of the John Edwards campaign, either because his supporters set the standard for how candidate partisans should behave (positive whenever possible, self-organizing and optimistic), or because the Clinton and Obama partisans lost a mutual enemy/group of potential future supporters. Now, with two sites--both alike in capability--taking sides in an intraparty Civil War, we're looking at a potential for an implosion on a grand scale. In this sense, I think Senators Obama and Clinton are probably thankful for their tech teams setting up their own online organizing capabilities early on--if this bickering keeps the traditional Netroots community sites like dKos and MyDD from being effective activists, at least the nominee will be able to organize around us.
We've reached a breaking point. If we can turn this break into the dividing line over how we view the Netroots' role in a Democratic administration, and avoid letting it simply become a pro-Obama/anti-Obama split, we can mitigate the negative effects it will have on the Netroots' long-term abilities and, perhaps, we can even strengthen our position vis-a-vis the Party. If this remains simply a Hatsfield/McCoy family feud, we may never recover from it in time to help win the White House.