Much of the MSM throw NC into the Obama column without much thought, but a recent PPP poll had Clinton down by only a point, well within the +/- 4.3% margin of error.
"Some folks in the national media have been treating North Carolina as if winning it is a given for Barack Obama," said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. "The reality is that the state is pretty close, and either candidate could emerge with a victory."
Could a blowout win in PA create enough momentum to push her over the top in NC?
If you're resting your hopes on this poll, you might want to look elsewhere. A couple of things:
- Obama's support among blacks in the poll is only at 72%. He'll get at least 80%, if not 90%.
- Obama LOSES 18-29 year olds 55%-43%? About as likely as Clinton winning back the blacks.
A SurveyUSA poll conducted about a week before the PPP poll had Obama up by 8% in the state. He carried 78% of blacks and 54% of the younger voters.
There is some good news for Clinton in the poll, however. Her lead among women, 44%-42%, could be much improved upon. She lost women to Obama in the SurveyUSA poll.
Since it is highly unlikely that Clinton has gained favor with the majority of young voters, and equally as unlikely that she'll get 20% of the white vote, I'd say it would take something far greater than a big win in PA to push Clinton over the top in NC.