Yesterday Bill Clinton responded to calls for Hillary to drop out for the good of the party with these comments, as reported by the San Francisco Chronicle:
In the packed McEnery Convention Center in San Jose, Bill Clinton reminded the delegates that things looked bleak for him in June 1992, after a tough and often vitriolic Democratic primary season.
"I was so beaten up, worked over and churned up that I was third in the national opinion polls behind Ross Perot and President (George H.W.) Bush," he said.
But by the national convention, he was in first place and never fell behind, he said.
Great point, Bill. There's just one problem. This statement undercuts the argument you've been making to superdelegates that Obama will be unelectable due to slippage in head-to-heads vs McCain due to Wright. Since Bill was so far behind at the end of his '92 primary and still won, the Clinton campaign can't credibly argue to superdelegates that current polling showing Obama much more competitive with McCain, even at the height of Wright, is reason to overturn the pledged delegates.
Oops.
This reminds me of how the Clinton campaign tried to argue that Obama was unready to be Commander-in-Chief but somehow ready to be a heartbeat away as vice-president.
Just within the last couple of weeks, Mark Penn sent out a memo arguing that Obama poll slippage at the height of the Wright controversy (which has since recovered) indicated that he was not going to be electable in the fall:
To: Interested Parties
From: Mark Penn, Chief Strategist
Date: Thursday, March 20, 2008
Re: Polling Memo – The Shift to Hillary
There are some pretty big changes happening out there with the voters. Barack Obama recently declared himself the frontrunner in the race, although there are 10 contests remaining and MI and FL have not yet been decided. But a look at the polls shows that Sen. Obama’s lead nationally with Democrats has been evaporating. The Gallup daily tracking poll shows Hillary leading Sen. Obama among Democrats by 7 points, and the latest Zogby/Reuters poll has Sen. Obama’s lead down from 14 points last month to just 3 points now. This suggests a strong swing in momentum in the race to Hillary since the Texas and Ohio primaries earlier this month.
The more that the voters learn about Barack Obama, the more his ability to beat John McCain is declining compared to Hillary. For a long time we have explained that poll numbers for a candidate who has not yet been vetted or tested are not firm numbers, and we are beginning to see that clearly. Just a month ago, the Obama campaign claimed that the polls showed Barack Obama doing better than Hillary against Sen. McCain. Now such numbers are a lot harder to find.
In the latest USA Today/Gallup poll, Hillary leads John McCain by 5 points (Hillary 51 / McCain 46) while Sen. Obama is only 2 points ahead of Sen. McCain (Obama 49 / McCain 47). This is a reversal from February, when Sen. McCain led Hillary by 4 points. The latest CNN poll also shows that Hillary leads Sen. McCain by a bigger margin than Barack Obama.
Well, obviously Obama's numbers have come back in a big way after his speech.
But forget that for a moment. Even if the numbers had stayed down, according to Bill Clinton, it would not have been mattered because he himself was running third behind Bush Sr. and Perot in June '92 and he still won the election anyway.
I think Bill Clinton committed the ultimate gaffe on Sunday: he told the truth. The fact of the matter is that head-to-heads are worthless until the nominees give their convention speeches. Bill Clinton having admitted as much, the Clintons can no longer credibly use polling data to convince superdelegates to overturn the pledged delegates and give the nomination to Hillary because she may do better in some head-to-heads here and there.
So, my friends, who knows what's left in that Clinton kitchen sink to throw at Obama? It's possible there will be another manufactured feeding frenzy of some sort that will temporarily depress Obama's head-to-heads again, which the Clintons will cite to tell superdelegates that they should go with her instead.
But if and when that happens, let's not forget to tell Mark Penn and other electability concern trolls what Bill Clinton told us on Sunday March 30th::
"Chill out we're going to win this election"
Indeed!