In today's New York Times, there is a claim that Clinton is going to have a superdelegate problem:
Yet Mrs. Clinton’s once formidable lead among superdelegates who have announced preferences has shrunk to 34 by the Obama campaign count. The pool of remaining uncommitted superdelegates for her to draw from has dwindled to around 330, fewer than half the overall total of 795 superdelegates
Believe it or not, that actually understates her problem.
If you go to the premier site for superdelegate information, DemConWatch, the chart on the left breaks down the delegates by type. Of the 327 remaining unpledged delegates, 69 are add ons.
The thing about add on delegates is (in most states) that they're chosen by the pledged delegates. The state by state breakdown from those remaining to be decided is:
Obama States (in order of when they'd be selected):
Maryland - 2
Louisiana - 1
South Carolina - 1
Illinois - 3
Utah - 1
Colorado - 1
Kansas - 1
Nevada (in his category because this is a delegate vote) - 1
Alaska - 1
Georgia - 2
Wyoming - 1
Hawai'i - 1
Maine - 1
Mississippi - 1
Minnesota - 2
Texas - 3 (again, this is a delegate vote)
Vermont - 1
Wisconsin - 2
Idaho - 1
Iowa - 1
Virginia - 2
Washington - 2
Nebraska - 1
I'm assuming that he's going to get all of the singletons. The rest is guesswork. His margins in GA, MD, and WA, and VA are high enough that that I expect him to get them by at least 6-2. Wisconsin and MN will probably split. I expect TX will go 2-1 in his favor. IL might break 3-0, but I'll give it as 2-1.
That's 33 superdelegates that are likely to break 27-6 in Obama's favor.
Clinton States (in order of when they'd be selected):
New Jersey - 2
Arizona - 1
New Hampshire - 1
New Mexico - 1
New York - 4
Massachusetts - 2
Ohio - 2
California - 5
Rhode Island - 1
I'll say that NY goes 3-1 for Clinton, say that MA, NJ, and OH go 4-2 for Clinton, and I'll give her a freebie in California and say it goes 4-1, when 3-2 is more likely.
That's 19 more delegates that break down 15-4.
Undecided (as of now) States (in order of when they'd be selected):
KY - 1
PA - 3
MT - 1
WV - 1
IN - 1
NC - 2
OR - 1
PR - 1
SD - 1
I expect those 12 to break out close to even (Clinton gets KY, 2 out of PA, WV, IN, and PR) I'll give her one out of NC to break it down 7-5 in her favor.
(In case you're wondering why this adds up to 64 instead of 69, it's because 5 of the add ons haven't declared yet.)
So after all of that, trying to be as generous as possible to Clinton, I have Obama having 36 add ons and Clinton having 28.
So actually, the likely count of remaining superdelegates is closer to 263 instead of 330. If Obama can just split the remaining pledged delegates and the add ons break down close to how I predicted above, Clinton will have to pick up 145 more superdelegates than Obama out of the 263 - a 204 - 59 split.
That's the math how I see it. Feel free to point out any mistakes I've made.
So no, Times, she won't need to win more than 2/3 of the remaining superdelegates. She'll actually have to win over 3/4. This is indeed a long shot.