(UPDATE): Pennsylvania is NOT a winner take all state. It is proportional representation, which means every vote counts. There is NO excuse to not do what you can to help him get as many votes as possible there.
Once again we see Obamanation getting their expectations out of whack. Talk about a narrow, 3-7 point margin of victory for Clinton is starting to take hold as the consensus for tomorrow.
This is bunk. The numbers are clear. Just as they were in Nevada. Just as they were in Texas and Ohio.
Obama will not break 45% on Tuesday. He may not break 43%.
The real math, not Howard Wolfson's spin, below the fold.
Let's go over this point by point.
1. The pollsters are almost all unanimous in how much support Obama has at this point--it's below 45%.
Here are the April polling results for Obama's support:
43
43
44
43
45
41
40
41
37
40
44
42
43
37
41
38
43
43
38
45
42
44
41
42
Obama has touched 45% twice in 24 poll results.
45 is his CEILING.
By contrast, Clinton is closer to 50% than Obama is to 45%.
2. The undecideds are going to break to Clinton, big-time.,
From MSNBC's Chuck Todd who is as straight a shooter as anyone:
So what happens on Tuesday? Well, let's take a look at the undecided vote. Going inside the poll's demographics, one finds the highest undec. totals in the more rural parts of the state; that's not good news for Obama. In the so-called "T" region of the state (i.e., almost everything between Philly and Pittsburgh), Clinton leads 51-37 with 11% undecided; this is one of the few demographic groups sporting double-digit undecided.
Two other interesting cross-tabs with high undecideds also indicate the potential that undecided vote will break for Clinton. Among bowlers (24% of the electorate) and gun owners (38% of the electorate), Clinton leads big. She's up 54-33 among bowlers and 53-28 among gun owners; There were 13% undec. among bowlers and 17% undec among gun owners.
So while the poll shows Clinton with a narrow lead (and arguably a narrowing lead), the clues inside the numbers indicate this is her race to lose and that her lead could expand. Should this race end up as close as this poll indicates (i.e. 5 points or less), then this means many of these undec. potential Clinton voters decided to stay home; If the come to the polls, she could see her lead climb to over 5 points.
Undecideds breaking to Clinton is a regular and dependable phenomenon in this campaign:
If the pattern of previous primaries and caucuses holds, the biggest procrastinators - those who make up their minds on Tuesday - will probably break for Senator Hillary Clinton. If they side with her again in Pennsylvania, it may help Clinton hold off Senator Barack Obama with a big-enough victory to save her candidacy, again.
In three polls conducted last week in Pennsylvania, which showed Clinton holding single-digit leads, 9 to 13 percent of voters said they were undecided.
Through 27 contests where exit polling on late deciders is available, Clinton has won those voters in 20. Combined, she has a median showing of 50 percent among voters who decided on the last day, compared with 43 percent for Obama. Such voters have, on average, made up about 13 percent of the Democratic electorate in each state, the exit polls show.
These voters have helped cement Clinton's crucial victories in Ohio and Texas on March 4, which kept her campaign afloat after 11 straight victories by Obama. And they may have made the difference in their closest contest, her narrow victory in New Mexico on Feb. 5.
Indeed, Clinton often has done better among late deciders than among all voters, at times drawing more of them even in primaries Obama won, including Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, and Maryland.
This paragraph should be stamped on the foreheads of everyone predicting a close race on Tuesday:
David E. Johnson, a Republican strategist who heads the polling firm Strategic Vision, said there has been a similar trend in many states: Clinton starts out with a large lead in polls; Obama, as he holds rallies and airs ads, closes the gap to the point where he looks positioned for a possible win; and then Clinton, buoyed by late-deciding voters, pulls out a larger-than-expected victory.
So, the question is, are Obama supporters stupid enough to irrationally fuel expectations to give Clinton the appearance of another moral victory and defeat of expectations--thus handing a media win to her?
Best case scenario for Obama is 54-46. Worst case scenario is 58-42. Split the difference and call it 56-44. And, quite frankly, that's optimistic given the media's attempts to Swiftboat Obama every single day for the past two weeks.
The media will call this one within 30 minutes of polls closing.
Bottom line: Obama needs every single last vote he can get!!!
N.B. For those who think I myself am just gaming expectations, I refer you to my prediction for March 4
Clinton wins Ohio by 10, Texas by 5, RI by 13
my prediction for Super Tuesday
Arizona
Arkansas*
California*
Connecticut (tossup)
Massachusetts*
Missouri
New Jersey*
New Mexico
New York*
Oklahoma*
Tennessee*
Obama:
Alabama (tossup)
Alaska*
Colorado
Delaware (tossup)
Georgia*
Idaho*
Illinois*
Kansas*
Minnesota
North Dakota*
Utah
and my reality check regarding Nevada.