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Ok, more than one. But I've been talking to my Ron Paul soldier about yesterdays vote.  I don't understand how Obama did not do better.

I won't address Obama and Clinton's race because so many others have and I don't really have much new to offer. But even though Ron Paul dropped out of the race my soldier has still been working for his campaign. (what does it take to kill a campaign? a wooden stake in the heart of every supporter?) These guys are fanatics.

But even still, the fact that John McCain only got 73% of the vote in basically a one man race, really says something.

When 27% of your own party votes against the only canidate...

McCain has problems.

His own party does not like him. over 210,000 republicans got up, drove to the polls just to say "we don't like you" by voting for Paul and Huckabee. Now it is true that he did get 585,000 to turn out and vote for him. But 27% is a sizable chunk of support he does not have.

It will be interesting to see how he does in the remaining votes. Is he going to try to firm up the republican support or blow it off and start trying to be main stream? On the surface he has nothing to lose by moving to the center, he has no opponents and has the nomination locked. But what he does have to lose is those people willing to get out and put up yard signs, make phone calls, argue that McCain's not wearing a flag pin is not the same as Obama's. You know, the grunt workers.

Add in that the total Republican vote turn out was just over 800,000. A little more than half of what Clinton got (1.258 million) and far less than the 2.3 million votes for democrats. Now we keep being told that McCain is polling close to Clinton/Obama. To do that, a very large number of non-democrats must be pulling for him. We see it's not the Republicans since a sizable chunk voted against him.

Now I have talked to Obama/Clinton supporters and I have yet to hear "If my candidate is not the nominee i'll vote for McCain" or "I won't vote". I'm sure there are some, but mostly they will vote Democratic. Now in the Repuclian side, i've heard Huckabee and Paul supporters emphatically (mostly Paul's) state they would vote against McCain or not vote or vote third party. Prior to yesterdays vote I would have put that to hot air, but 27% got up and voted no to McCain.

So in order for the polls putting McCain as a contender, there must be 1.5 million independent voters in PA ready to vote for him. Total Democratic vote total ~2.3 million, Assuming 2.2 million for the nominee, McCain got 585,000 so to come over the top he needs to find an additional 1.5 million votes. (this assumes some anti-McCain voters support him) 1.5 million independent voters only works if 0 independents vote Democratic.

Yet we get told PA is going to be a battle ground state?

McCain's staff has to see this. Or maybe they think that the 1.x million who voted for the non-nominee will jump ship in mass and vote Republican?

Makes me wonder if McCain is not the lamb they tossed on the alter and the real candidate will be his VP in 2012.

Originally posted to Drill Sgt K on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 07:46 AM PDT.

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