I think it was Chuck Todd who pointed out that if Hillary had been up 6% to 7% most of Tuesday night and only widened the lead to 9% at the end, the story line would have been very different. The traditional media are very impatient and by around 10pm the story line has to be written—something dictated I suppose by print deadlines and the fact that 10pm to 11pm is the peak hour for election coverage.
In the case of PA, the impatience of the traditional media hurt Obama as it was decided early on that Clinton had won by double digits and crossed some threshold defining a "big win." These dynamics may, however, play to Obama’s favor on May 6.
First, where are NC and IN likely to come out? My hunch is that NC is an 18 to 20 point win for Obama and IN is an absolute coin flip. Others may disagree, but bear with me for a moment and assume I’m right. How is this likely to play out in the traditional media? Well, NC will be called immediately and it will become very clear that it’s a double digit win approaching and maybe even exceeding 20%. IN will be nip and tuck and we won’t know for many hours who is going to win. But, just as nature abhors a vacuum, the traditional media abhors an undeclared verdict. Their strong preference is to declare a big night for one candidate or the other. Absent that, its acceptable to call it a draw as long as there’s some finality to it. But, saying its 11pm and we just don’t know goes against their nature. What to do?
Well, they can’t say big night for Clinton ... after all, if she loses IN even by a hair, the thing is immediately over. By the same logic, they can’t call it a draw ... cuz if Obama wins IN it sure wasn't a draw. They could say we just don’t know what’s happening—why don’t you flip the channel and check back in tomorrow. But, that’s a last resort for these guys. Well, what about calling it a big night for Obama? That's safe ... even if he ends up losing IN, you don’t look foolish.. So ... and here’s the point I’ve been driving toward ... if it looks like IN will be within a point or two either way, the traditional media may decide that a tie goes to Obama. I.e., they may start saying things like, "regardless of what happens in Indiana, this is a very impressive win for Obama in North Carolina and really puts Ohio and Pennsylvania in perspective," and "even if Obama loses by a point or two in Indiana, this is an awfully big night for him and perhaps enough to unleash a flood of superdelegates into his camp." And, of course, the more they start saying these things, the more they will believe them and the more definitive they will become and the more they may begin to spin it as the night Obama clinched the nomination.
Something to keep in mind if Indiana continues to look extremely tight as we approach May 6th.