So I was looking into Hillary's big state "strategy" and found the following quote from "a post-Super Tuesday memo from Mark Penn" at this link:
As super-delegates consider which candidate to support, they will be looking at which one candidate has a base and can win the big states, including the crucial swing constituencies. We believe the impressive wins in NY, CA, MA, MI, FL, NJ, AZ suggest that Hillary is the one who can motivate a strong turnout in November.
Follow me over the fold:
So, I asked myself, "self, what constitutes a Big State: physical size or population?" Since NJ in the above quote is considered a Big State, I guess it must population, and (Clintonian) logic would suggest we may as well look to the Electoral Votes for each state to determine which ones are Big and which ones are not big.
So how big is a big state? Again, from the above list, we find AZ has the fewest electoral votes of any Clinton-defined Big State, at 10 EVs.
So, now that I know that Clinton considers any state with at least 10 Electoral Votes to be a Big State, let's see how that is working out for her so far:
Big States:
State | - #Evs | - Winner | - +Delegates won in Dem Primary/Caucus) |
AZ | - 10 | - C | (+6) |
CA | - 55 | - C | (+38) |
GA | - 15 | - O | (+33) |
IL | - 21 | - O | (+55) |
IN | - 11 | | |
MA | - 12 | - C | (+17) |
MD | - 10 | - O | (+14) |
MN | - 10 | - O | (+24) |
MO | - 10 | - O | (-) |
MS | - 11 | - O | (+7) |
NY | - 31 | - C | (+46) |
NJ | - 15 | - C | (+11) |
NC | - 15 | | |
OH | - 20 | - C | (+7) |
PA | - 21 | - C | (+10) |
TN | - 11 | - C | (+12) |
TX | - 34 | - O | (+5) |
WA | - 11 | - O | (+26) |
WI | - 10 | - O | (+10) |
WV | - 13 | | |
So, of the 19 -- oops -- 20 Big States that have counted in the Primaries/Caucuses, 3 have yet to vote, while 8 have gone for Clinton, and 9 have gone for Obama.
SCHWIIIIING! Guess that blows the "Obama can't win the Big States" theory.
[UPDATED] to fix that MD showed MO numbers and MO was missing.
Plus, basic argument, simplified for you-know-who-bots:
Hillary says Obama can't win Big States.
Looking at Hillary's count of Big States in the text quoted above, which ones are Big States? (States that have 10 EVs or more)
How many of those has Obama won in the Primaries/Caucuses?
Conclusion: Obama CAN win Big States; in fact, of the states that have counted in the primaries/caucuses so far, he has won 1 more than she has.
* Primary numbers from:
DemConWatch
** Electoral Vote numbers from:
Electoral-Vote.com
*** I searched for a similar diary and didn't find one, nor do I know if this is still even relevent; if the former, I'll be happy to delete; if the latter; it will fall off the front page soon enough anyway.