Hillary Clinton was right. It took a village!
The Dededo Village, the most populous village in Guam, has finally reported. 509 for Clinton, 313 for Obama. This results in a win for Obama of exactly seven (7!) votes.
OBAMA 2,264 50.1%
CLINTON 2,257 49.9%
Source: Pacific Daily News.
The results have to be certified, and the Obama folks areupset about spoiled ballots, according to the Pacific News Center.
Barack Obama lead the count all day (it is now morning on Sunday, March 4th in Guam), but his margin was always too small to be sure of victory.
The likely delegate split for the pledged delegates from Guam will be 2-2 (4 half delegates each).
A superdelegate slate to Obama was also elected in a landslide.
My final "magic map" of Guam is attached:
Congratulations to Guam and to Senator Obama!
According to the Pacific News Center, three precincts have reported so far (I believe there are about 20 in total):
As of 12:00 a.m. on 5/4 Guam time (9:00 a.m. on 5/3 Central Daylight Time)
The results of three precincts are in, but the ballot counting at election central is still behind at this hour. After Maina, Ordot and Inarajan reported, Senator Barack Obama is leading Senator Hillary Clinton by 26 percentage points.
Earlier updates indicate that Clinton won Maina by a little bit, Obama won Ordot by a lot. From those two precincts, Obama leads 56 delegates to 40. It seems to me that if he now has a "26 point lead" that he must have also won Inarajan.
More updates as they come!
UPDATE: Groundbar09 says that CNN is covering the Guam Caucus. CNN currently reports Obama has 64 percent and Clinton has 36 percent with "10 percent" reporting. As the Mainstream Media is covering this, I will not be giving as many updates.
UPDATE 2: For those geography buffs, a map of Guam's villages/administrative districts is here. Attached to this diary is my own attempt at one of those magic maps that John King makes (unfortunately I don't think CNN will be giving us any magic maps), using the best data I can find.
UPDATE 3: The delegate tally in Inarajan, according to the Pacific Daily News, was 151 for Obama and 81 for Clinton, yielding total counts of 207 for Obama (63%) to 121 for Clinton (37%). The Lujan/Paulino ticket for Chair/Vicechair are way, way ahead right now (245 delegates to less than 60 each 65 and 55 for the other competitors).
UPDATE 4: Remember, what's at stake here is whether Obama wins the pledged DNC delegates 2-2 or 3-1. He needs to finish with more than 63 percent to secure the third delegate to Denver. Also, the Chair/Vicechair race, as a few commenters have noted, affects who will be superdelegates. BHouston79 points out that it is actually 8 half-delegates at stake, which means it could split 2.5 to 1.5. Kudos to BHouston79 for thinking outside of the integer box.
UPDATE 5: KUAM-TV reports that two more precincts reported about a half-hour ago. Obama now leads 56% to 44%.
Despite some delays in the tallying of votes from Saturday's Democrat Caucus, in which Guam is playing a key role in determining who will gain the nomination for the race for the United States president for that party, Senator Barack Obama leads Senator Hillary Clinton by a margin that continues to narrow as more precincts report in. As of 12:40am Sunday, 5 out of the 21 precincts had been tallied, with Obama's count besting Clinton's 56% to 44%.
The initial projections were for the votes to have been counted by 11:30, but slight delays pushed such work back. Still, the Democrat Party of Guam told KUAM News they were quite pleased with the sizable turnout, more than they had expected. Those villages that have now been tabulated are Asan, Inarajan, Chalan Pago, Ordot, and Maite.
I'm somewhat confused by this report, as it is my understanding that Chalan Pago and Ordot are both in the same administrative district. Apparently precincts and villages/administrative districts overlap, but do not have the same boundary lines. Asan, Chalan Pago, Ordot, and Maite are all in the area around Agana, the capital of Guam. I will update my magic map when I have more clear numbers. Some of the comments have updated delegate totals that I find to be highly plausible, but until I have a link to a territorial, party, or media web site I am reserving judgment.
UPDATE 6: CNN confirms the numbers posted by commenter Sophie Amrain: Obama 497 (55%), Clinton 401 (45%). CNN says this is 37 percent of precincts; this translates to 8 of 21 precincts, I think. this represents 7 of 19 caucus sites (a few precincts were combined, apparently). I have no idea where in Guam these numbers are coming from, so I can't update the map yet.
UPDATE 7: Kos has a front-page article on Guam. As they say in the Marines*, GUAMANIA IS RUNNIN' WILD! GUAMANIA COMIN' ATCHA BROTHER!
* I have no actual evidence of this.
Meanwhile, the Pacific Daily News says the latest count is 683 (53%) for Obama, 596 for Clinton (47%).
UPDATE 8: A commenter notes a new update from the Pacific Daily News stating that it is now 719 for Obama (53%) and 629 for Clinton (47%) with 10 of 19 precincts counted. Again, I'm not sure where the numbers are coming from, so no map update for now.
UPDATE 9: As some folks have noted, it might be a good time for the Obama folks to put away the champagne. Pacific Daily News states that at 2:00 a.m., "Obama at 768 votes, Clinton at 680 after 11 districts counted. " That's still a 53% to 47% split, but Obama is going to need some big margins in the remaining boxes (like what he apparently got in Inarajan) to win by blowout proportions.
UPDATE 10: The Pacific News Center states:
1:45 a.m. Guam – With 11 out of 19 precincts reporting, Senator Barack Obama is leading Senator Hillary Clinton by 6 percentage points. The total preference count so far is Obama with 768 to Clinton’s 680.
Meanwhile, the race for Party Chair and Vice-Chair isn’t as close as the delegates’. With over half of the counting done the team of Pillar Lujan and Jaime Paulino is leading the three teams with 48 percent of the vote.
I think we can safely call the race for Party Chair for Lujan and Paulino; the vote is half counted, and they'd have to lose the remaining votes by a ridonkulous margin in order to lose the plurality. That said, is a plurality (48 percent?) good enough? Or will there be a runoff?
UPDATE 11: The Pacific Daily News tweaked its web site, and now more information is available:
2 a.m. — Sen. Barack Obama continues to hold the lead in the Democratic caucus after 11 Democratic caucus districts have been counted.
Obama got 37 votes in Ordot, 19 in Maina, 151 in Inarajan, 46 in Asan, 55 in Chalan Pago, 87 in Santa Rita, 102 in Mongmong-Toto-Maite, 28 in Hagåtña, 158 in Barrigada, 36 in Merizo and 49 in Piti for a total of 768 votes.
Sen. Hillary Clinton took 18 votes in Ordot, 22 in Maina, 87 in Inarajan, 33 in Asan, 87 in Chalan Pago, 73 in Santa Rita, 81 in Mongmong-Toto-Maite, 29 votes in Hagåtña, 166 in Barrigada, 33 in Merizo and 51 in Piti for a total of 680 votes.
In the race for chairman/vicechairman, the team of Pilar Lujan/Jaime Paulino has 719 votes in the 11 counted districts. Antonio Charfauros/Mary Ann Cabrera have 312 total votes and the team of Joseph Artero Cameron/Arlene P. Bordallo has 475 votes.
With this new information I can update my map:
UPDATE 12: Looking at the map (FYI, Asan-Maina and Chalan Pago-Ordot involved adding numbers, so that is why only nine areas are colored in despite 11 precincts being counted) it appears that several of the largest precincts remain outstanding. Only one of the five largest villages, Barrigada, has reported so far.
According to Wikipedia:
Dededo 42,980
Yigo 19,474
Tamuning (including Tumon) 18,012
Mangilao 13,313
Barrigada 8,652
I believe though that many of these areas are heavily U.S military, so a lot of the people are going to be registered to vote elsewhere.
UPDATE 13: The Southern central village of Sinajana just came in big (131 to 89) for Obama, according to the Pacific Daily News. Obama leads 899 (54%) to 769 (46%).
UPDATE 14: KUAM's Mindy Aguon says that a big showing in Dededo is Hillary's last chance for a win in Guam:
Guam's support for Barack Obama continues to mount, as the senator from Illinois has extended his lead over his New York counterpart, Hillary Clinton, in the 2008 Guam Democrat Caucus. With 12 out of 21 local voting precincts now having been accounted for, Obama has 899 of the 1,668 total votes (54%). Volunteers from the Democrat Party of Guam have counted 769 votes (46%) for Clinton.
But the Clinton faithful still have hope, as the critical precinct of Dededo - the island's most populous village - remains uncounted.
Dededo will probably be one of the last to report, but if Obama wins it or loses it by a thin margin, then in that case I think we can safely call Guam for Obama. If not... then we keep waiting.
UPDATE 15: The Pacific Daily News reports a narrow win for Obama in Agana Heights. Their math seems to be off, however (they are saying Obama's total is still 899 but Hillary's has jumped to 874 -- highly improbable I think). At any rate, 13 of the 19 precincts have been counted, and Obama is still leading by some margin or another. My best guess is that they forgot to add 108 (his votes in Agana Heights) to 899. If I'm right, then the current tally is 1,007 (53.5) for Obama, and 874 (46.5) for Clinton. Here's an updated map:
UPDATE 16: Pacific News Center provides some context on the results from Agana Heights:
Guam - Despite being the home of Senator Barack Obama’s arguably most outspoken supporter, former Governor Carl Gutierrez, Agana Height’s vote was split nearly 50-50. Josh Tenorio from the Obama camp, speculates Republicans and Independents registering as Democrats for the day may have swayed the vote, but says he could not explain definitively why the village’s turnout was so close.
OK, you know it's officially silly season when we've reduced the quantum of the Expectations game to a small precinct in Guam. It matters just like every other precinct in America, to be sure, but nobody spun my precinct!
UPDATE 17: The Pacific Daily News has two more precincts reporting, Mangilao (which went for Obama 194-155) and Tamuning (which went for Hillary by a single vote, 193-192). Obama leads now by 1,393 votes to 1,222 (53% to 47%). New map:
Meanwhile, there's been some tightening in the race for Party Chair, but Lujan and Paulino are still ahead by a margin of over 300 votes (out of about 2,500 cast).
UPDATE 18: KUAM's Mindy Aguon notes that only four boxes remain, but they are big ones:
With more than two-thirds of the votes for the 2008 Guam Democrat Caucus now in the books, presidential candidate hopeful Barack Obama has claimed a major victory after winning Mangilao, one of the island's larger and more populous villages. That village reported that it has 262 new registered Democrats. Voting for several other big villages is still pending, including Talofofo, Yigo, Yona, and, perhaps most significant, Dededo.
UPDATE 19: Walt starr notes that the Pacific Daily News is reporting that Obama has won Umatac, 27 to 24, and that the vote totals are now 1,420 to 1,246. Three precincts remain outstanding.
UPDATE 20: More updates from the Pacific Daily News:
5:40 a.m. — After 18 districts have been counted, Sen. Barack Obama maintains about 54 percent of the vote, leading Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Democratic caucus. One of the largest districts, Dededo, still hasn’t been counted toward the total vote, however. The other two districts yet to be counted are Agat and Yona.
Obama got 37 votes in Ordot, 19 in Maina, 151 in Inarajan, 46 in Asan, 55 in Chalan Pago, 87 in Santa Rita, 102 in Mongmong-Toto-Maite, 28 in Hagåtña, 158 in Barrigada, 36 in Merizo, 49 in Piti, 131 in Sinajana, 108 in Agana Heights, 194 in Sinajana, 192 in Tamuning, 27 in Umatac, 76 in Talofofo and 224 in Yigo for a total of 1,496 votes.
Sen. Hillary Clinton took 18 votes in Ordot, 22 in Maina, 87 in Inarajan, 33 in Asan, 87 in Chalan Pago, 73 in Santa Rita, 81 in Mongmong-Toto-Maite, 29 votes in Hagåtña, 166 in Barrigada, 33 in Merizo, 51 in Piti, 89 in Sinajana, 105 in Agana Heights, 155 in Mangilao, 193 in Tamuning, 24 in Umatac, 52 in Talofofo and 211 in Yigo for a total of 1,298 votes.
In the race for chairman/vicechairman, the team of Pilar Lujan/Jaime Paulino has 1,299 votes in the 18 counted districts. Antonio Charfauros/Mary Ann Cabrera have 653 total votes and the team of Joseph Artero Cameron/Arlene P. Bordallo has 967 votes.
Here is my updated map:
Yigo came in for Obama but not overwhelmingly so. I am wondering to what extent Yigo and Tamuning foreshadow the results we are likely to see from the neighboring village of Dededo. My guess is that it may presage something of a wash (both Tamuning and Yigo were very close). Any predictions?
UPDATE 21: A commenter notes that the PDN totals are wrong (this has been a constant problem all day, but give the folks credit -- it's like 6 a.m. in Guam, OK?) The real totals, according to cph, are 1,720 (53.3%) for Obama and 1,509 (46.7%)for Clinton. It's a 6.6% spread right now. The remaining boxes could wipe that lead out entirely. But I'm leaning right now (see above that Dededo will be a wash. If we get back results from the other two boxes that are really good for Obama, I will come to the conclusion that it's time to call the race.
UPDATE 22: Perfectly timed for the early morning newscast there (it's now 6:00 a.m. in Guam), the tension is mounting. From KUAM's Jason Salas:
The Democrat Party of Guam, admittedly pleased at the unexpected surge in voter turnout during Saturday's caucus for the delegates/superdelegates (Guam citizens cannot directly cast votes for president, despite being full United States citizens), found themselves spending the last 10 hours overwhelmed at the volume of work required to count all the ballots. Initial party representatives hoped to have full results completed within a few hours after the polls closed at 8pm Saturday; they're now projecting a final tally - with the remaining municipalities being among Guam's largest - being completed sometime late this morning or even sometime Sunday afternoon.
So while the local community awakens to learn of an all-too-familiar conundrum of incomplete next-day election results (with the global audience paying astute attention to the political events unfolding half a world away), the next few hours will be critical for Guam, for Democrats, and for each candidate.
Stay tuned.
This may be the biggest horse-race in Guam history, and the local media aren't missing a beat.
UPDATE 23: The PDN tells us that Yona reported, 104 to 98 for Obama. The total now stands at 1,824 to 1,607 (53.3% to 46.7%). Update map attached:
UPDATE 24: Somewhat contrary to my expectations, Agat reported with an edge for Clinton, 141-127, according to the PDN. The upshot:
6:30 a.m. — With only Dededo left to count, Sen. Barack Obama leads Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Democratic caucus. Clinton will need to win Dededo by 204 votes to overtake Obama. Dededo is Guam’s most populous village.
The total is now 1,951 votes for Obama to 1,748 for Clinton (52.7% to 47.3%). Dededo has about 25 percent of the Island's population, so this remains too close to call. Remember, this is where Anderson Air Force Base is, so this may have a slight military slant to it.
In the race for Chair/Vice-Chair, however, the Lujan/Paulino ticket has expanded their margin to well over 400 votes, and I think it is safe to call that race (actually, I thought that was safe to call hours ago). Obama will get a favorable superdelegate slate out of Guam.
Map:
UPDATE 25: I am going to take a break. Dededo is still out. It's morning in Guam. They'll be giving us a count at some point soon. Keep posted to the sources I've linked to in this diary. I will be checking back in around 5:30 p.m. CDT.