This issue has come up and up and UP, over and over and OVER again. Both sides of the arguement have merit at therir cores. However, I desire a solution that puts this thing to bed... both, in an effort to resolve the issue in a positive manner (re-enfranchisement along with a justifiable sanction), AND to kill the BS talking points... come below to see how this breaks out...
Hillary went as far as to claim that she actually had the popular vote lead, after the PA primary. She cynically claimed the MI vote for herself, and threw the 40% uncommitted aside. It is the only way that she could possibly claim the lead. She keeps using this as her spin to try and convince the Supers to support her (which has been a failing strategy altogether... regardless of the OH and PA results, and her spin on electibility, the Supers have been drifting into Obama's camp by a ratio of at least 3:2, if nor greater. Her once double digit lead, perhaps even greater than 100, memory fails me, is down to 11... all this despite the contraversies, the talking points, negative press, and appeals to electability regarding the "states that matter"... but I digress).
We can put this whole mess to bed right now... It takes an sense of good will by Obama and his supporters, and some rational thought by the DNC and state parties. I admit, that I am willing to go this route, because Obama holds his lead in the end, but I see this as the best approach to resolve the issue in a positive manner (re-enfranchise FL and MI, while still implementing a sanction).
- The delegations from the states of FL and MI will be halved (to include a sanction, as to deter future violations).
- For the state of FL... assign delegates based on the vote as-is. I understand that Obama did not get to campaign in FL, and this could have affected the numbers... but things are what they are. We don't have to concoct some ad hoc mathmatical system... we just move forward. Halving the delegation, as well as being a sanction, also mitigates the impact of the marginalization of Obama's support...
- For the state of MI... assign delegates according to the vote as follows:
a) Give Hillary her 55% as per the actual vote
b) Give Obama his exit poll numbers, from the uncommitted... this ammounts to about 37% of the total.
Again... this "eliminates" imagined mathmatical systems and grants totals based on reality. It is still compromised data based on the circumstances, but that marginalization is once again mitigated by the sanction of halving the delagate count.
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Now... here is how this plays out...
For the delegate counts:
FL has 185 pledged delegates. At 50% of the total popular vote, this gets her about 93... halved for the sanction, she pulls down around 47 (rounding up in her favor, because I am such a gracious guy). At 33% Obama gets about 61... halved to about 30 (for a net gain of 17 delegates for her).
MI has 128 pledged delegates. At 55% of the total popular vote, this gets her about 70... halved to 35. At 37% Obama gets about 43... halved to 21 (for a net gain of 14 pledged delegates for her).
This cuts his lead in Pledged delegates from 166 to 135. With the 11 Superdelegate gap, he is at a 124 delegate lead.
Just for arguement sake... even without halving them (full delegation), he has over a 100 delegate lead... give him no delegates in MI and guess what??? He still has the lead by over 50.
The popular vote margins would lie at +306,989 for Obama *
(* The popular vote of uncommitteds for MI was taken from CNN.com since he was not on the ballot... and multiplied by 37% based on the exit poll numbers. This was added to the "Popular Vote (w/FL & MI)" stat listed on Realclearpolitics.com).
I also want to point out that he still holds the popular vote lead by nearly +90,000 even with 0 votes from MI counted for him...
In any event... This solution to resolve the FL/MI crisis, gives the voters in those states a voice... includes a sanction (which has precedent based on the RNC way to address the situation)... and mitigates the overall impact resulting from the marginalization of voters who did not show because of the situation, did not get to hear/see campaigning in their state... the fact that Obama was not on the MI ticket.
I think this is an amicable resolution that puts the issue to rest, and takes away the BIGGEST talking point that Hillary has. Even with MI and FL results, you are OUT.