The numbers just aren't there. Any reasonable person would have long since realized that Hillary no longer has a realistic chance of winning the nomination. And yet she continues to run, pouring money into her own campaign and stepping her rhetoric against Obama even more. True, Obama is not so close to the magic number that a swing in the superdelegates could not overturn his lead in the popular vote over some as-yet-uncommitted Obama gaffe - they could yet deliver her the nomination and save her from wasting her time in the Senate. But is that really it? This is a Clinton we're talking about - would she really let a little thing like losing keep her from her rightful place as Queen?
The answer may well be no. And that leaves her with one final option - run as a third party. It worked for Lieberman, so why not her?
I should probably mention that I was living in Connecticut when Lieberman first lost his place as the Democratic candidate and then managed to win his seat in the Senate anyway thanks to a legally dubious last-minute shift to the "Connecticut for Lieberman" party. I voted against him twice but he won anyway. Incidentally, I was living in Texas when Bush was elected Governor, and thus I have voted against him twice and lost both times. I'd really hate to see history repeat itself with Clinton, but I would be a fool to discount the possibility.
So here's my breakdown of my take on the situation, appropriately enough in 6-6-6 format:
THE MOTIVE:
- Despite mathematically hopeless odds for months and more recently being thrown over by the media, Hillary has shown no signs of stopping her campaign. There is no reason to doubt her resolve.
- There is no love lost between her and Obama, and thanks to increasing race-baiting in this late stage of the race any dream of a combined ticket has fizzled. She would have had no interest in the Vice Presidency anyway, as Obama would not afford her the sort of leeway given to Cheney.
- Thanks to the an unpopular Republican candidate and an unpopular Republican president, Republican turnout may be its weakest in decades. Thus splitting the Democratic vote and picking up a large fraction of independents and with any luck pragmatic Republicans could give Hillary a path to victory.
- An unsuccessful third party campaign would most likely come at Obama's (and the Democrats) expense, giving Hillary another shot at McCain in four years.
- If Obama were to win, Hillary would have ample opportunity to criticize him during the general election and four years to distance herself from the Democratic party in the Senate and build up her
- Hillary's campaign is in such deep debt and owes so much money that she cannot afford to quit running - doing so would make her campaign's fiscal irresponsibility an embarrassing issue in her legacy.
THE MEANS:
- Timing is everything and she cannot afford to quit campaigning. Quitting the democrats would prompt an immediate backlash from the party, which would only intensify the longer she was there. Therefore she must drag the primary out as long as possible, preferably past the convention. Hillary must therefore keep herself relevant over the summer.
- Hillary's first order of business is picking up some delegates amongst the remaining states to reduce Obama's lead. Puerto Rico and West Virginia should favor her, although other states will not. In any case, it is absolutely imperative that she narrow Obama's lead between now and the end of the primaries.
- Hillary must further fight for the absolute least fair distribution of votes from Florida and Michigan - meaning fully seating the delegations and zero votes for Obama from Michigan. This is of course contrary to her prior pledges and to the existing rules.
- Superdelegates must be courted - but more importantly, she must convince enough of them to hold off on pledging their support until the convention, as it is highly unlikely she can get enough of them to support her to win the Democratic Nomination.
- Hillary must also make it seem that the regular delegates are in play, and thus the count cannot be trusted. The only way to accomplish such an unusual and controversial move is extremely strong criticism of Obama, which we are seeing. Again, she has announced her intention to fight for these votes. Clinton's tenacity is such that the media are unwilling to "count her out" so long as she is still campaigning.
- Hillary need not run on a fully independent ticket - a ready made party for her current tack already exists in the Centrist party. Of course at the moment it has zero power, but that would make it that much easier for her to run. At the least it makes for a better brand than "America for Hillary". Other outsider politicians like Lieberman and Bloomberg may be inclined to join her in order to boost their own significance, and if she can gain momentum she may be able to pick off ambitious incumbents for her own party.
THE OBSTACLES:
- Lieberman was only able to keep his Senate seat thanks to his incumbent status and Connecticut Republicans literally abandoning their own candidate to pragmatically vote for the conservative former democrat. Despite McCain's unpopularity Republicans nationally are unlikely to do that (although Ann Coulter implied that she would rather have Clinton than McCain at one point - and given Clinton's more recent tone, she may actually mean it).
- Many Democrats will of course not take such a betrayal lying down (although some will). Every fault and misstep - including the ones that were never allowed to make the news before - will be laid bare.
- Clinton's hopes are pinned on increasingly strong statements against Obama. There is however a fine line between sharp criticism and desperately ridiculous and offensive criticism. Her recent "working whites" statements are already pushing boundaries even if they may pay dividends with certain voters. It will be difficult to push any further in the months ahead without her support completely imploding.
- Abandoning the Democrats in such a spectacular fashion will greatly offend dyed-in-the-wool Democrats, but may also offend a large portion of Independents who be turned off by such disloyalty and exploitation. Any gains from centrists may be offset by a backlash.
- In order to mount a serious challenge to Obama and McCain backed by their respective parties, she's going to have to raise some serious money. Given that her campaign is already in debt that can be difficult, but not impossible with some strong backing from rich opportunists. She'll also need support from the media (who given today's fair-and-balanced coverage and delight in conflict will surely give her all the press she needs).
- Hillary Clinton may be willing to run on her own, but one person in particular could stop her cold. That person is her husband William Jefferson Clinton. Besides his lifelong affiliation with and leadership of the Democratic party, he's got his own legacy to think of - not to mention his personal fortune which she is already dipping into. Of course, he may feel he still hasn't made up for the whole Lewinski thing.
So, there you have it. Am I crazy or could this actually happen? You be the judge.