Wow. So it’s come to this.
I always knew deep down that there was a possibility that I would cave to my better instincts and go with a winner. Jeez.
It’s been a bit spastic around here lately with competing thoughts about whether or not Hillary and Obama should merge their efforts for the Democratic Party and form the "Dream Ticket".
First let me say that in my view Barack and Hillary are essentially twins when it comes to policy prescriptions. Sure there is some divergence here and there, on the nature of health care mandates, gas tax holidays and of course, the infamous carrot to ditto-heads to obliterate Iran, but all in all, when I look at what I consider serious vs. what I consider politics, I just don’t see and never did see that much difference.
I think Hillary brings a lot to the ticket, some good, some bad, but in my view the good out weighs the bad by a long shot. The same could be said for Obama. I’ve always thought and written that either one of these candidates at the top of the ticket would win in November. I just preferred Obama be the one leading the dance. He’s got that extra rhythm and it shows.
Hillary will be the idea VP candidate, the pit bull that trashes the republican’s leadership and policies on the campaign trail so fiercely they’ll be staggering for decades. Bill will be shaking every Bubba’s hand within spittin’ distance everywhere he goes telling them what a great guy Barack is and how Barack and Hillary will be the best thing for this country since George and Martha Washington. All the while, Barack will be sailing along on the high road that everyone has come to expect of him.
This primary campaign at times was incredibly tough. It proved that not only is Hillary a fierce fighter, no holds barred, but also that while Barack may be skinny, he’s tough too. Hillary has done more to inoculate him from the right wing/traditional media attack/noise machine than anyone could have imagined. That’s my view. It’s like what is often said about regurgitated attacks in campaigns, "that’s old news".
I probably should mention that I think the "Dream Ticket" will in short order earn about a 10-15 point bump in the polls over McCain. Little old ladies will fall in love with Barack, after all, well, you know, because, he’s such a smart young man to have picked Hillary to help him lead the nation over the next eight years. Okay that could be considered condescending but make no mistake there are those voters out there and many are over the age of.....well, they’re pretty much way up there on the longevity scale.
I think Hillary and Bill might actually add electoral votes to the ticket. I do believe they can help the ticket in many states that are not now part of what I consider the Obama coalition. In my view it’s a matter of whether we are talking about Obama winning with 322 EV or perhaps as many as 459 EV. I think the "Dream Ticket" has an easier shot at the 459 EV in 2008 and even more in 2012. That’s why it’s always been known to it’s supporters as the "Dream Ticket."
I don’t want anyone to get the wrong idea here but I’ve just got to tell you that I have been incredibly impressed with Hillary’s ruthlessness, her downright fighting till the last dog dies approach during the waning days of this primary season. Of course, I didn’t particularly enjoy being on the receiving end of her shocking assaults but hey if I want to send the meanest baddest among us into the ring with "Freedom Watch", I think she’s probably the best.....plus she’s got Bill as her wing man.
What might be some drawbacks of the "Dream Ticket"?
Loyalty? I doubt it. She’s been a pretty good Senator from NY and she’ll have every reason in the world to ensure that an administration which she is a part of succeeds. I think she will have to distance herself from or bring some discipline to some of her surrogates but that’s not really that much of a daunting task....at least not for her. If they mess with her, she’ll throw them under the bus, hop in and repeatedly drive back and forth over them. Word to the wise.
I remember almost a year ago writing that I would not want to let Hillary know that I wasn’t one of her supporters. I was afraid she would kick my ass. See, I’ve always thought she was tough, even long before this campaign. Now, even more so. I think unlike most VP picks she adds a dimension to the ticket that few others, if any, could.
One of the charges against her on our side is that she will fire up the republican base. She has high negatives. Let me tell you a secret. Once she hops on the "Dream Ticket" her negatives will go down a bit and her positives will go up a bit. She’ll have a net positive rating. Just watch. And another thing, some republicans have actually been campaigning for her already. I mean, sure, there was a lot of disingenuousness in those efforts but they made the case for her nonetheless. It’s sort of makes any future attacks less effective. People will see it as just politics.
So there you have it. I’m on board with the "Dream Ticket" should Barack and Hillary decide that is the way to go. They will have my unequivocal support. I will max out to the campaign. I will send even more support to the DNC and I’ll work both in TN and in OH on the ground (the two major places I will be between now and November) to support their efforts. I have family on the ground in NC and I’m sure I will be able to get them to hit the streets as well.
It is time. We didn’t stop thinking about tomorrow. Tomorrow is here today and for all those who want to ride the O-train across the threshold, I encourage you to get on board with the "Dream Ticket".
Update: Trial Balloon going down in flames on dkos. :)
Update II: These are the 280 + 42 = 322 EV that I think Obama wins in November: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, IA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, NJ, NM, NY, OH, OR, PA, RI, VT, WA, WI = 280; MO, NV, NH, VA, CO = 42;
These are the states where I think he can compete: NC, TX, FL, ND, MT, SC, GA, TN, IN = 127 EV
I loosely used InTrade market data and the Markos Prediction Methodology to arrive at my conclusions.
Update III: FWIW, as many of my previous comments will verify, I have supported the Obama campaign exclusively and sometimes passionately since the beginning of the year. I made 25 separate dontations to the campaign eventually and sadly maxing out at $2,300. I have never before in my life donated to a Presidential campaign. I've followed the race pretty closely and so I know that 75-80% of all the voters in the Democratic Primaries as a whole would be satisfied with either candidate at the top of the ticket. I, personally as an independent, would only be satisfied with Obama at the top of the ticket. I gather from the comments to this diary that much of the sentiments shared by the 20% or so of Obama supporters who would not be satisfied with Clinton are clustered more heavily on dkos than most other places I might happen to visit.
Update IV: From the comments: Iddybud: I was an Edwards supporter/still Edwards Democrat ..and a look at many of my comments from the last few days will tell you that this is not a currently popular view at Daily Kos, yet I suspect that view may change as days go by.
Final Update: I’d like to add that in the summer of 2007 I considered reluctantly voting for Hillary so I guess you could probably stretch a little bit and say that I wasn’t a true blue Hillary hater ever. I’ve not particularly liked her. I’ve definitely disliked some of her tactics but it occurred to me long ago that we, as Obama supporters, were going to face this sooner or later. I didn’t want to think about it but I knew it was true.
When she proclaimed that Obama was going to be vetted by her campaign, I don’t think she was doing it to make him a stronger candidate in the fall. I think she was trying to win. So I fought back along with millions of others. But the truth as I see it is that she did indeed make him a stronger candidate for the fall. No matter how bad the traditional media and Hillary pounded Obama with one distraction after another, no matter the spin and manipulations, Obama bounced back. His support was rock solid. I always used the Rasmussen data on Favorables to track his Strong Support vs. the other candidates and he has always out performed the others by about 33%.
Now here at the end when most are recognizing that the primary race is over, it is evident to all, even some supporters who may have been worried, Obama is the real deal. He will not be defeated by the republicans, the traditional media or any "swift-boat" type 527 that arises. He’s proved that.....but he did that because Hillary went Nuclear and threw the entire right wing playbook at him. Yes it was a painful experience at times but I had very few doubts that he would win this. It was just a matter of time.
The regular season is now or soon will be over. Its tournament time and we are ready. We are ready because we had the toughest season in any recent memory and we came out of the season with the party championship. Let the playoffs begin and if we can play with an All-Star team, I’m not going to oppose that. In the beginning, Obama called on me to believe. I said okay, but I think I more hoped than believed. Today, I can say I believe as much as I hope and in my view that is a good thing.