The latest Rasmussen polling numbers indicate that both Virginia and North Carolina will be closely contested in November, and that Obama and McCain have very different profiles of support in those states.
Virginia: Obama 44(41), McCain 47(52)
North Carolina: Obama 45(47), McCain 48(47)
That is a fairly large move in Virginia (where the previous poll was released on March 27), and little to no movement at all in North Carolina (where the previous poll was released on April 10.) This is the first time that Rasmussen has shown McCain with only a single digit lead in Virginia, and it is the second time they have shown North Carolina to be essentially tied.
Perhaps even more interesting is the nature of the support for Obama and McCain in each of these states. There is not a lot of difference in total favorable opinion and total unfavorable opinion for these candidates in each of these states:
Virginia: McCain 60/37 (favorable/unfavorable); Obama 51/35
North Carolina: McCain 53/44; Obama 51/46
However, the electorate in these states is much more polarized in its opinion of Obama, and much more wishy-washy in its opinion of McCain. In Virginia, Obama's "very favorable" and "very unfavorable" numbers are the same at 31; only 33% fall into the combination of "somewhat favorable" or "somewhat unfavorable." Much the same is true in North Carolina, where Obama's "very favorable" (37) and "very unfavorable" (30) numbers are both high, while only 30% fall into the combined "somewhat" categories. Pretty much the opposite is true for McCain in both Virginia and North Carolina, where his "very favorable" and "very unfavorable" numbers are relatively low, and the "somewhat" numbers account for most of the electorate -- 61% in the combined "somewhat favorable" and "somewhat unfavorable" in Virginia, 56% in North Carolina.
I expect that this pattern will repeat in many states, with the electorate polarized on Obama and wishy-washy on McCain. If Obama can avoid increases in "very unfavorable", and can persuade even a few of McCain's weak supporters away, then he should do very well in Virginia, North Carolina, and nationally.