As the nomination winds down, so does some of the damage Obama has taken during the past couple of months. Tough months. In Rasmussen, Obama's favorable-rating is once again competitive with McCain's. He's got things close in the daily-nationals, with only Rasmussen showing him behind McCain(1)
Obama is recovering in Colorado, now opening up a 6 point lead. In New Mexico, another battleground state, Obama has a 9 point lead. Nevada is another potential pick-up in the West for the Democrats, with some early polls showing Obama beating McCain despite McCain's home state being right next door.
He's continuing a comeback in Ohio. Two months ago, he was down 12 points. Last month, 7 points. Now? 1 point, McCain on top 45%-44%. There's plenty of room for Obama to thrive. One clear trend is that the Democratic vote isn't entirely locked up by Obama. McCain constantly has more of a grip around his party than Obama does, which is something we can expect to change. Pennsylvania looks locked up for Obama. Indiana looks like a possible mid-western pickup. Iowa is in his grasp. This is another strong region for the Democrats this year.
Recent polling in North Carolina and Virginia shows Obama being can still be competitive there. Polling isn't available for South Carolina, but at the end of February, Survey USA had it at 3 points. This is an area that John McCain will be forced to defend. Going further south, to Florida, Obama is also resurgent there. Quinnipac had him down 9% in late March, then 1% in late April. In early April, Rasmussen had him down 15% in Florida, now 10%. Obama's biggest weakness? Again, only 57% of Democrats. 27% of them are planning to vote for McCain.
Michigan, now just 1 point towards McCain in one poll, 3 to Obama in another. Wisconsin, total tossup. Likely to change as the Democratic nomination winds down and more Democrats get used to the idea of Obama as their nominee. With exception to a single poll, Obama has been doing well in Wisconsin. I think he's likely to grow in Michigan as their issue with the DNC gets settled. I have no doubt this area is on Obama's radar. His appeal in Colorado and New Mexico allows him many paths to the nomination. If we took Kerry's states, including MI and WI, then added in CO and NM, it'd be a win for Democrats.
SurveyUSA seems all over the map lately. Their recent NC general election polls under-sampled AA's, was done over the weekend, and didn't include cellphone calls. Their recent state-by-state polling shows Obama/Edwards to be the strongest match-up! However, like in the other polls, the biggest area of improvement for Barack Obama lays in his own party. John McCain is almost always attracting more Republican votes than Obama is getting of Democratic votes. As the primary winds down, so too will this disparity.
The Republican's new weakness in the mid-to-Southern Atlantic is another glaring omen. Their financial and organizational condition doesn't need to be repeated. It's been gone over enough. If Obama can make this area, the Mid-West, and the West competitive, then the Democrats will have a lot of options and the Republicans will be forced to defend far more than they can handle. The fact that Obama is still raising more money than John McCain during McCain's best month is just another variable being factored in by the O Team. The Vote for Change registration drive will be an important indicator for November.
Obama needs to work on unifying the party as soon as possible. He needs to mend those fences. His biggest weakness, and his largest area for growth, is in the Democratic party itself.