I did a diary after Ohio and Texas about how the future contests from March-June would not allow an obvious exit point for Clinton. I jotted down some quick back-of-the-napkin predictions for the remaining contests with very little in mind other then she does well in Appalachia. I sort of forgot about it, but when I revisited the blog again and realized how easy it is to project proportional elections within a fairly small margin, because most baseline estimate will only be off by a few here and there. For example, I had cumulative totals from 3/8 to now as 258(O) to 267(C), but the actual was 256(O) to 269(C).
For remaining superD's, I was overly generous to Clinton going at a clip of 55%(O) to 45%(C)... A pretty clear trend for some time shows it at about 70%(O) to 30%(C). So here is some new napkin numbers:
Obama Clinton
Current: 1961 1777
Remaining Pledged: 49 44 (includ outstand. Edwards D's)
Supers: 150 62 (at 70% clip)
Total: 2160 1888 (w/o FL/MI)
Add ballpark MI/FL: 170 200 (including superD's)
New rule Total: 2330 2088
Bottom-line: the numbers have always pointed toward waiting for the steady trends to chug to the finish, not about sweating out the primary results since late Feb. (near 50/50 in pledged and 70/30 in supers)