Today the internet is abuzz over Hillary Clinton’s new apparent scheme, to try to force her way onto the Democratic ticket as Vice-President. Bet on it, this will be on the news tonight. Even while debunking her credibility, Keith Olbermann will still devote at least 15 minutes to it. Chris Matthews will validate the idea and Dan Abrams will practically pass petitions. Meanwhile, the Clinton followers continue to be whipped into a state of rebellion.
The Super delegates could end this anytime they want. The delegate math, though, shows that in order to do this, support must come from not just the elected officials who serve as superdelegates, but also from anonymous DNC-Member superdelegates who are possibly afraid to make such a decision. So instead, the party continues to appease Clinton and her supporters, hoping that each concession, each additional consideration, will be the one that allows her to step aside. It hasn't happpened, it isn't going to happen, and it's time that we stepped up and started to match the energy of the Clinton followers and forced the result that we seek and that our country needs.
Here is the delegate math, right up front. If Obama permits, or if Clinton succeeds, in allowing the Michigan and Florida delegations to be seated as voted (giving Obama all of the "uncommitted" seats in Michigan), Obama will still have a sizeable lead. Assuming the anticipated results in Puerto Rico, Montana and South Dakota, Obama needs to swing only 75 more super delegates in order to win the nomination, even with Michigan and Florida included.
The problem is, we are running out of super delegates. Although 211 remain undeclared, 39 of those are Add-on delegates who haven’t even been named yet. That leaves 172. Of those 172, fully 98 – that’s 57 percent – are anonymous, unelected, accountable-to-nobody DNC members. Those are the people who are most vulnerable to pressure tactics, and most likely, the most fearful to make any sort of endorsement at all until the outcome of the race is determined. Unless 75 of the 85 elected officials/party leaders who remain undeclared are willing to come out in mass for Obama, this thing won’t stop.
And therein lies the problem.
But in order to really appreciate the problem, let’s review how we got here.
On Super Tuesday, we were told that there would be a run of Obama-favorable states in February. The big tests, we were told, would be Wisconsin and the Potomac primaries. If Obama did well, we were told, the race would be over. Well, he won big in those, as well as in every other state that month. But Clinton didn’t go away. The February states didn’t matter, we were told. From Iowa to South Carolina, Vermont to Minnesota, Idaho to Kansas to Louisiana to Virginia, none of those states counted. What states counted? Apparently, there was only one common criteria. If Sen. Clinton won the state, then it counted. If she didn’t win it, it didn't count. She went an entire month without winning a single state; and so none of those states counted.
Then we were told, let her hang in for Texas and Ohio, mini-Super Tuesday. We were told that she had to have wins in both states – resounding wins. Not only that, but by now, the republicans have already concluded their nomination. Republican voters, whether tempted by Rush Limbaugh or acting on their own, are now entering the Democratic primaries in droves, and voting for Clinton in order to influence the outcome of our primary in a manner most favorable to republican chances in the fall. Well, Texas turned out to be a draw. Yet now, we were told, a win is a win, and the caucus in Texas didn’t count, and, well, even though her margin in Ohio wasn’t as big as hoped, she should have a right to continue on to Pennsylvania.
We were told that the delegate math foreclosed any chance for her to catch up, but Clinton should be allowed to state her case in Pennsylvania because she "won" in Texas and Ohio. By May 6, or at least May 20, Obama will have enough delegates and she’ll have to bow out. So, the goal posts move again.
Well, here comes Pennsylvania. Uh oh, wait - not so fast. It’s 6 long weeks till Pennsylvania. During that time, we hear about the "Commander in Chief test", Rev. Wright, the "dream ticket" putting Clinton on top, lapel pins, William Ayers, "as far as I know", and all of the other distractions. At first, we were told that Clinton had to win big in Pennsylvania. But then, within the final run-up, Clinton informed us that any old win would do.
When the dust settled, the margin in Pennsylvania was 9.2 percent, but the talking heads "rounded" it to 10% and called it "double digits." This was proclaimed across the land as a Big Win for Clinton. The Experts announced that she earned the right to continue, as long as she toned down her rhetoric. We were also beginning to be told that it’s not really about delegates, it’s about popular vote. And slowly but surely, the popular vote narrative began to seep into the media. Never mind that "popluar vote" doesn’t even exist, and never mind that her "lead" in that vote is a lie that includes Michigan and excludes at least 4 caucus states. We should not trifle with such details.
So, next up is May 6 – yet Another Super Tuesday, when North Carolina and Indiana would vote. Yes sir, Everything would come down to North Carolina and Indiana. If Obama wins both, it’s over. If Clinton comes close in North Carolina, then Obama’s candidacy is in jeopardy.
Well, Obama blows out Clinton in North Carolina and Clinton barely escapes Indiana with the narrowest possible win. Not only that, but left unreported (though apparently well known among party insiders) was the impact of the Limbaugh voters. Exit polling showed that a sizeable number of voters who voted for Clinton said that they would vote for McCain in the fall, even if Clinton was on the ballot. (There was a corresponding question for Obama voters, but the number was much smaller). Removing all of those voters from both primaries, Obama actually wins Indiana, 52-48, and cruises even more easily in North Carolina, by 60-38 percent.
Tim Russert proclaims the race over. Everyone else proclaims the race over. Clinton cannot recover from the blow in Indiana. The delegate math is done. The only question remaining is when and how for her to pull out. But what happens? SHE DOESN’T PULL OUT! Now, the spin is that we have West Virginia and Kentucky coming, where Obama is going to lose big, and Clinton needs to stay in the race so that the presumptive nominee won’t be embarassed by losing big while unopposed.
So Clinton stays in, even tones down her rhetoric a bit. Then come the anticipated blowouts in West Virginia and Kentucky. Suddenly, those two states have become "swing states" that "matter". Obama can’t win the votes of "hard working white voters", and therefore can’t win as the nominee. This is suddenly significant, even though everyone knew it the night of Indiana. Oregon gets no press, because its results come in after prime time out east. Never mind that Obama won among the Oregon "working class white voters".
So here we are. The primary schedule has effectively ended. The super delegates – and by extension, the Obama base of support, which includes all of us – have willingly APPEASED Clinton at every turn. We have PERMITTED her to push out the goal posts ever further, every week. We have APPEASED her supporters, by thinking that allowing her one more chance at a graceful exit would bring about unity. Instead, we are now looking at her newly emboldened attempt to hijack the democratic party, and the Obama candidacy, by forcing herself into the Vice-Presidential nomination.
The new narrative will start tonight. The emails have already started. The media, with its point-counterpoint substitute for journalism, with comply and give validation to the story just by putting the surrogates on TV, just by analyzing its "merits." It doesn’t matter that Clinton should have been home for two months by now. If Clinton wants those things said, they will be reported, and her supporters will be further energized and party unity (or at least Obama’s ability to campaign against McCain) will be further distracted. Clinton supporters don't appease, they fight back.
It is time for us to push back too. The party – the 85 fence sitters among the elected-official superdelegates (I’m looking at you, Rahm Emmanuel, my own Congressman), and the 98 faceless DNC members – need to feel some heat from our side. They need to feel support to break our way. They need to know that the Clinton supporters are not the only ones out there who feel passionately about our candidate, and that the Clintons’ threats can roll off them, because they will have a huge group protecting their backs. The 98 DNC members, especially, need to have some assurance that they need not fear stepping out and taking the right stand for the party. That they need not wait for some future, perhaps unattainable marker before following quietly. They have the responsibility to act for the best interest of the party, and we must show them we have their backs.
But they also need to feel heat if they give in further to the scare talk and the threats. They need to know that we will not sit back and let the Clinton zealots call them sexist in order to control the outcome, and get away with it. They need to know that if they do, this will be viewed as the most racist thing the Democratic party will have done in decades. Can anyone tell me that Barack Obama would have been allowed to stay in the race past February after losing all of those contests?
It’s really time that Barack’s supporters let these people, and the media, know that it’s not sexist to put pressure on the Clintons to get out, instead, its cynical and demeaning to permit the Clintons to further manipulate and sacrifice both the feminist cause and the future of the Democratic party to their own personal ambitions.
It is time for the Super Delegates to hear from us!
It is time for the media to hear from us!
It is time for the Rules Committee meeting to be packed with at least as many vocal Obama supporters as there will be screaming Clinton supporters!
It is time that the silent, APPEASING party apparatus begin to feel heat from someone other than the Clintons and their carefully nurtured fans!
It is time for us to make noise and begin to influence the outcome! Time for the Super delegates to know that their constituents want them to end the fight, and end it now!
Use the list at DemConWatch to locate a superdelegate near you, and start working it!