SurveyUSA have just posted their latest polling with VP matchups. The big news is that with no VP mentioned, Obama is up by 9 - in OHIO!
http://www.surveyusa.com/...
This is the first poll since 2/27 to show Obama with any kind of substantial lead in OH. FiveThirtyEight.com's listing of polls shows the following history of Ohio polls:
2/17 SUSA: Obama +3
2/27 SUSA: Obama +10
2/27 Ohio Poll: Obama +1
2/24 Rasmussen: McCain +1
3/13 Rasmussen: McCain +6
3/15 SUSA: McCain +7
3/16 PPP: McCain +8
3/28 Quinnipiac: Obama +1
4/8 Rasmussen: McCain +7
4/12 SUSA: McCain +2
4/26 Quinnipiac: McCain +1
5/15 Rasmussen: McCain +1
5/17 Quinnipiac: McCain +4
FiveThirtyEight projects that Obama will win Ohio with 40% probability, prior to this poll. With any luck, this result from an extremely reputable pollster should boost that over 50%.
Ohio has been considered one of the tougher swing states for Obama to flip to blue. If this result bears up, the presidency is in the bag.
Update: if anyone is considering rec'ing this diary, please rec the one below from billysumday instead - he covers this poll and two others which are also great news for Obama.