I clicked on a headline at RCP and landed on this USA Today story: "New Swing States Pop up in '08."
Great, I thought, I have been thinking a lot about how the electoral map will change this year, given Republican scandals, an unpopular president, the ways that demographics are favoring the Dem party, the effect of these two somewhat unique candidates on the blue/red palette we're used to looking at. The occasional "McCain looking at electoral landslide" article nonwithstanding, my impression has been that McCain has a very small playing field, in terms of expanding into blue states, while 2008 will put anywhere from 5-12 "red" states realistically into play for Obama.
But that headline seemed pretty neutral: Was I wrong about the opportunity this election will be for the Dems? Is McCain a real threat to appeal to independents, upsetting the familiar Dem coalition from Washington to Michigan to Maine?
Well, I don't know if I was wrong, but nothing in the USA Today analysis convinces me otherwise. Lurking behind the very fairminded (read: bending backward to accommodate all sides of the issue) headline is an article that makes me feel very good about our chances.
All the red-to-blue "swing states" you'd expect to hear about are discussed in the article, some with extensive detail: Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa, Indiana, Virginia--even Mississippi and Montana get a mention. There's extensive detail of what puts these states into play for the Dems.
On the blue-to-red side, here's the quality of analysis we get:
Among the factors reshaping the battlegrounds: a prospective flood of young voters in the West, growing numbers of Hispanic voters in the Southwest and the serendipity of popular candidates running for the Senate or governorship in Virginia, Oregon and elsewhere. McCain's maverick appeal helps him in New Hampshire and other states with many unaffiliated voters.
Ah. That maverick appeal is a legendary cudgel against the inexorable march of demographics. But wait, didn't New Hampshire vote for Bush in '04? [Update: Nope, that was '08] Let's see what other states will go from a losercrat blue to Maverick Red.
Down around paragraph 13, we get an inkling:
Republicans see openings in Michigan and Wisconsin, near Obama's home state of Illinois, even though both states have gone Democratic in last four elections.
and several paragraphs later, Mark Mellman weighs in on states that Obama "could lose":
He names Wisconsin and Michigan as well as New Hampshire.
A dispute over Michigan's primary, held earlier than party rules allowed, meant Obama didn't campaign there and missed the chance to identify supporters and build an organization that could be useful in the fall. Two weeks ago, he finally stumped in the state.
Finally, Oregon is mentioned, and here's why:
Even so, DuHaime calls McCain "a different kind of Republican," similar to those who have fared well in elections in the region. McCain could be boosted by Republican Oregon Sen. Gordon Smith, who is running for re-election, and Washington state gubernatorial contender Dino Rossi, a Republican who nearly won the governor's race in 2004.
So McCain's chances rest on being boosted by Gordon Smith and a Republican who lost the governorship in Oregon, and it depends on holding out hope in a state where Obama hasn't yet campaigned in? (and we all know how Obama's numbers go down after he starts campaigning in a particular state).
Seriously, I've given you about the full extent of the arguments in favor of "red-to-blue" swings, while leaving out extensive "blue-to-red" swing commentary from analysts on both sides along the lines of what you'd find in a real newspaper.
All of this is to say, I am feeling better about this election and looking forward to seeing the polling come in after Obama's "unity bump," especially in places like Michigan and Pennsylvania, the only blue states I see McCain having even a shot at turning. Increasingly I get the feeling that the only real swing states will be the ones where Obama plays offensive and McCain tries to hold him off to keep the '04 map intact.
Meanwhile, I suggest a better headline for the USA Today:
"New Swing States favor Dem takeover in '08."
On the plus side, check out the neat electoral map stimulator at the site (sorry, problems with direct linky).