Puerto Rico is next in line to be disenfranchised!
or not ...
how exactly is it that they vote for the primaries but can't for the general?
Poor Hillary's about to lose her 'popular vote' claim to fame after South Dakota and Montana since the PR votes don't count for the general election ...
the smallest violin in the world is playing somewhere
In Puerto Rico
if HRC takes 50% then that's plus 27.5 for her
and BHO takes 37% then add another 20.35 for him
and for fun let's play that Clinton gets those four more from Michigan her 'supporters' feel are hers and Obama gets knocked the 59 he was awarded - meaning that the 238,168 votes for 'uncommitted' remain just and all the votes from Michigan are belong to Hillzory
the spread becomes 209 needed to 102.65 hypothetically speaking with Clinton holding at +0.45% of the popular vote (hypothetically speaking)
Now, in Montana The Missoulian is reporting from a poll taken about 2 weeks ago that
Obama leads Clinton by 52 percent to 35 percent among likely Democratic voters, with 13 percent undecided in the poll, which was taken May 19-21. The Democratic primary portion of the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.
and in South Dakota the the AP notes
Obama is generally considered to be narrowly ahead of the former first lady here even though South Dakota's demographics appear to favor her.
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just for giggles lets play that Clinton gets 50% in South Dakota and 40% in Montana ... for a total of 7.5 votes from South Dakota and 6.4 from Montana (13.9), leaving Obama with 7.5 and 9.6 (17.1)
our new hypothetical totals become 195.1 (95.1707%) needed (HRC) and 85.55 (41.7317%) needed (BHO) out of 205 supers outstanding
the real totals needed (as I'm sure you remember) are +4 for Clinton and -59 for Obama
so, even at 199.1 projected Supers needed hypothetically (that would be 97.0731%) Clinton will (IMNSHO) try to push the "I won the popular vote!' card to sway the remaining supers to come to the dark side support her as the voice of the people
that is unless she doesn't have the popular vote
.45% is a very small margin: 52,331 votes to be exact ...
she needs (desparately) to stay ahead by that much. She needs to win both South Dakota and Montana by 50+% to effectively continue to claim her much touted and mostly mythical (and mystifying) popular vote majority - frankly I don't think it's gonna happen ...
but I guess we can't keep her from dreaming - as much as it risks the nightmare that we all end up saddled with a Neo compassionate conservative schmuck like McCain ... but i digress, such is the nature of the early AM
Montana and South Dakota have a combined population of 1,726,551 as of the 2006 US census. Now with 23.1% and 24.9% respectively under the ages of 18 ... (does more math) ... that leaves about 76% of voting age.
if we take both states as possibly in play and take roughly 50% voting Democratic that gives us 863,275.5 potential Democratic voters ...
South Dakota Secretary of State Chris Nelson believes 8,000 new voters will have been added this spring before the registration deadline closes for the June 3 primary.
Of course some of those may be the victims of a Boston, Massachusetts, organization called the "Voter Participation Project" is sending mailings into South Dakota telling our citizens that under "state law" they need to re-register to vote.
Hillary probably will turn a blind eye to this disenfranchisement also, as long as she wins ...
Nonetheless
He’s forecasting 40 percent to 45 percent Democratic turnout....
In Montana lets assume a similar turnout - we would see about 345,310.2 Democratic voters going to the poll.
more than enough to close out the fantastic claims of a 52k lead by Camp Clinton
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The New York Observer says that "[t]he bottom line is that if Clinton picks up a net gain of 75,000 votes in Puerto Rico, Montana and South Dakota, she will be able to claim a popular-vote lead over Obama."
but that's only if Puerto Rico actually counts ...
so, the questions remain
how do we count Puerto Rico?
will Obama have a inarguable popular vote?
and
what are the odds that Hillary counts PR as part of the popular vote while continuing to refuse to admit any count from Michigan for Obama? and, more importantly, how much would such a claim be swallowed whole by her 'supporters' as proof positive of her rightful coronation nomination?
Or what about the fact that more Californians now support Obama than Clinton?
even more: it's disgusting to see how she is fomenting the reactionary mob-like nature of her constituency and threatening to saddle the country with another Republican President
I suppose it's her prerogative if she wants to be that metaphorical snowflake in hell; but it would be awfully nice if she could do it without dragging the entire country down there with her
and yes, my math is off and much here is speculation
I hope I may be forgiven for it is early, or late depending on how we look at it
thanks for reading
have a happy Sunday