Let me start by saying I am a HUGE Obama supporter. I started supporting him as soon as he entered the race in early 2007. My previous diaries will attest to this. I made calls for him in Iowa, New Hampshire and elsewhere, and went door to door for him in Pennsylvania. I am no "concern troll."
I am writing because I feel Obama made a serious strategic mistake in the past month, after running an incredibly strong campaign through the rest of the primaries.
Obama learned early on that campaigning counts. Obama built strong organizations in caucus states and made sure to visit these locations several times. Hillary ignored these states, and Obama racked up enormous vote margins and delegate totals as a result. Yet after Obama's thrilling North Carolina blowout and near Indiana win, his campaign made a significant mistake. (explained below the fold).
After May 20th, Obama and his campaign realized that he had for all intents and purposes won the Democratic nomination. True, he had.
Obama decided to campaign in general election states. Again, a wise choice.
But Obama decided to essentially GIVE UP on states where Hillary was favored: West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico.
Let's examine these states individually.
A. West Virginia- Let's be honest. Obama was NOT going to win this state. Yet he could have narrowed Hillary's margin somewhat. He was endorsed by Senator Jay Rockefeller, and he has a strong economic message which should resonate with a fair number of West Virginians. Instead, he visited ONCE.
Result: he was blown out by 41 points. A 30 point loss would have still been a blowout, but it would have cut Hillary's popular vote advantage by 30,000-40,000.
B. Kentucky- There is even less excuse for only coming here once. Kentucky has a large city (Louisville), a decent-sized college community and a not insignificant African American population. Yet Obama appeared just once while Hillary covered the state for most of the week.
Result: Obama loses by 250,000 votes.
Again, one or two more days in Kentucky would have likely lopped off 50,000 or more from Hillary's margin.
C. Puerto Rico- This is the WORST Obama campaign error. I know, Puerto Rico does not vote in November. Yet a huge popular vote win by Clinton could give her a popular vote lead.
The Clintons (either Bill or HIllary or both) were in Puerto Rico EVERY DAY last week. Remember, Hillary already had a HUGE name recognition advantage over Obama. He should have spent at least 2 or 3 days in order to reduce that advantage. Instead, he came only ONCE. Two polls had him down 13 points in April and May. Yet Hillary's barrage may result in a 30 or 40 point win, which likely will WIPE OUT Obama's popular vote advantage, even not counting Michigan AND giving Obama an estimated 110,000 for the unreported caucus states.
Will these mistakes cost Obama the nomination. NO! But they will keep Hillary in this thing longer, and make her most adamant supporters even more embittered. Maybe the Obama campaign should have followed the brilliant campaign strategy they perfected prior to May 20th.