Now that Obama has won the nomination, it's time to look back and analyze the top ten people who most helped him reach this point. After paying close attention to Obama's rise, I've concluded that the following individuals played the biggest role.
1. Oprah. Long before Obama decided to run for president Oprah began promoting his candidacy. As early as November 2004, Oprah gushed over Obama in her magazine explaining that she doesn't get involved with politics because she doesn't consider herself political, but that Obama feels like something above and beyond politcs; that Obama feels like something new. On September 25 2006 she endorsed Obama for president on Larry King. Then on Oct 19, 2006 Oprah once again asked Obama to run for president, this time on her top rated show, and used her status as the single most influential person in the history of American publishing to endorse his book the Audacity of Hope, sending it to the apex of the best-seller list. For millions of Americans the Oprah appearance marked the first time they had ever heard of the Obamas. Immediately following Oprah's two endorsements, Time magazine put Obama on their Oct 23, 2006 cover with the capation "Why Barack Obama could be the next president". The endorsements by Oprah, the success of his book, and the cover of Time magazine all converged to make Obama the greatest grassroots fundraiser American politics had ever seen. Then in May 2007, Oprah reaffirmed her endorsed for Barack Obama when asked about it again by Larry King:
This was followed up when Oprah held a fundraiser for Obama in the Fall of 2007, generating several million dollars for his campaign. But the media really began to take notice of Oprah's involvement in late November 2007 when Obama announced that Oprah would be campaigning for Obama in three early states. Almost instantly Obama began to rise in the polls (especially among white women in Iowa, and black women nationwide) as the media and others began to wonder what it was about Obama that would inspire someone as politically neutral as Oprah to dive into a presedential race. Almost instantly the notion that Hillary was inevitable was called into question, because Obama had the support of the one woman statistically tied with Hillary as the most admired woman in America. If Oprah could get get several million people to read a book, many imagined her having the same impact on Obama's campaign, and that created the sense that Obama had become a winner, especially when the Oprah rally attracted tens of thousands of people in South Carolina (a record at the time), and Howard Fineman described Oprah's speech there as one of the best he ever heard. It also created a sense of panic in the Clinton camp, causing them to overreach with silly comments about Obama's kindergarten record and past drug use.
In a race between the first black and the first woman, the black female vote proved decisive; black women had long been described as Hillary's base until Oprah jumped in. While Obama always did well among highly educated Americans, he needed a mainstreet figure like Oprah to capture the average American, and as Howard Fineman said, there's no more mainstreet a figure than Oprah. Oprah also mainstreamed Obama among white voters, especially low information white voters who watch daytime TV and feared Obama was a muslim. Having a comforting mainstream all-American figure like Oprah, who had been in their living rooms for 22 years campaign for Obama was essential in helping some of these voters feel less fearful of Obama. About one of third of all Americans reported that most people they know would be more inclined to vote for Obama as a result of Oprah's endorsement. Another study found that Oprah's late 2007 campaigning had dramatically increased Obama's visibility, especially among African Americans. With the help of Oprah eating into Hillary's base, Obama not only won Iowa but Hillary came in third, dramatically changing the trajectory of the race; this combined with his blowout victory Oprah delivered in South Carolina caused Edwards to drop out of the race and set the stage for the endorsements of Ted Kennedy and Moveon.org.
2. David Axelrod Obama ran an extremely well organized campaign against the most powerful political machine in Democratic politics and Axelrod deserves a lot of the credit.
3. John Edwards Edwards dropping out early was crucial for Obama's success because most of his supporters migrated to Obama.
4. Moveon.org No less an authority than Hillary Clinton credits Moveon.org with with flooding the caucuses, making it difficult for her supporters to dominate. Moveon.org deserves a lot of credit for Obama's 11 straight victories.
5. John Kerry It was at John Kerry's convention that Obama first captured the imagination of America, and more importantly Oprah, with his landmark speech in 2004.
6. Chris Dodd Hillary is a brilliant debater who was very difficult to score a knockout punch against. Dodd scored the first when he claimed Hillary contradict herself on the question of drivers licences for illegal immigrants. This stumble made many Democrats look for an alternative to Hillary and thus set the stage for Obama's subsequent rise in Iowa.
7. Tim Russert. It was under Russert's tough questioning that Hillary gave her drivers licence stumble.
8. Ted Kennedy Though his support may not have had an impact right away, he was essential in convincing traditional democrats that the new kid on the block Obama was worthy of the Kennedy brand and cared about traditional Democratic values. This almost certainly contributed to Obama's 11 consecutive victories.
9. Michelle Obama Seeing this educated accomplished black woman standing side by side with Oprah Winfrey in South Carolina in suport of Obama inspired millions of black women. It sent a message to the black community of reject the politics of blacks tearing successful blacks down and questioning their blackness, and showed that black women can unite behind a black man.
10. Nancy Pelosi Having the support of the most powerful woman in American politics sent a powerful message to superdelegates.
HONORABLE MENTIONS
Frank Rich The most influential columnist in the world's most influential media outlet. The rest of the media more or less repeats everything the NY Times says and does. Rich served as a much needed counterweight to the criticisms of Paul Krugman and the fact that the paper itself endorsed Hillary.
Bill Richardson Could have had a bigger impact (especially on the Hispanic vote) had he not waited so long to endorse, but may be still prove useful as a Vice president candidate.
Howard Dean Opened up the door for new leadership in the Democratic party.