So, remember a few weeks ago when the CW was that Barack Obama's dysmal performance in the West Virginia primary meant that there was no way he could win that state in the fall?
(For the sake of unity I won't rehash some of the things that were said, but I know you all remember them.)
Anyway, Rasmussen released a poll today that shows Obama well within striking distance of McCain in the state:
McCain 45%
Obama 38%
First I want to make clear, this poll was conducted on June 2nd. The night before Obama officially won the Democratic nomination.
That said, these results are increasingly more promising based on the fact that they are not going to be indicative of any post-primary poll bounce.
Some interesting findings from the poll:
Neither man is terribly popular in the state. McCain earns favorable reviews from 48% and unfavorable ratings from another 48%. The numbers for Obama are 40% favorable and 57% unfavorable. Those figures include 26% with a Very Unfavorable opinion of McCain and 35% with such a negative view of Obama.
But this is what I find most interesting, and what I believe could ultimately be foreshadowing of a landslide victory all over the country this fall:
While President Bush won 56% of the West Virginia vote in Election 2004, just 27% of the state’s voters now believe he is doing a good or an excellent job. Most—58%--say the President is doing a poor job.
By a 59% to 32% margin, West Virginia voters say it’s more important to get the troops home from Iraq than to win the War. Forty-five percent (45%) say victory is at least somewhat likely if John McCain is elected President. Just 20% say that victory is that likely if Obama is elected. However, 48% believe a President Obama would be at least somewhat likely to get the troops home within four years. Just 35% say a President McCain would be likely to do the same.
Folks, Bush and this war are going to sink John McCain. For all the media's ignoring of the war in Iraq, the fact is that it is still a very important issue all over the country.
For Barack Obama to be competitive in a state that he couldn't even crack 40 percent in during the primary is insane. However, the fact is that Bush has absolutely destroyed the Republican name and there may be nothing John McCain can do to save it.
Once Obama starts hammering McCain on the war in general election, it should be interesting to see if these numbers tighten.
Keep an eye on West Virginia, it could really be a sign of things to come.