CNN Poll published on Friday shows how Nader and Barr affect the votes. I haven't seen it diaried, but if I missed it, let me know and I'll delete this.
The poll shows that Obama (49) narrowly beats McCain (46), leaving 5% "other". That is, Obama +3. And since the poll has a 3% margin of error, that's statistically a tie.
But with Nader and Barr added, the results are Obama (47), McCain (43), Nader (6) and Barr (2), leaving 2% "other". That is, Obama +4. Interestingly (to me, anyway) the 8% that went to Nader and Barr came from 2% from Obama, 3% from McCain, and 3% from "other", so it looks like there are a fair number of people that don't like either Obama or McCain. Perhaps Ron Paul supporters?
Based on those numbers, even if Nader runs and Barr doesn't, assuming that Nader's votes all come from Obama, the result might be a very narrow Obama (47) lead over McCain (46), with Nader (6) and 1% "other". Obama +1. Ouch.
More fun, the results if Barr runs could be Obama (49), McCain (43), Barr (2), with 6% "other". That's Obama +6.
The poll is at http://www.cnn.com/... .