In a 4 point turnaround, Obama now leads McCain in Rasmussen's latest Michigan poll, 45% to 42%. The poll was taken six days after Obama clinched the Democratic nomination.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/...
In Rasmussen polls in May and late-March, McCain had a one-point lead.
Interestingly, Obama's gains have come from male voters. Obama has reduced the gap among male voters down to eleven points from a nineteen point deficit in May. Obama leads by thirteen among women, not a significant change from May. So it would appear that his improved numbers do not reflect a movement of female Clinton supporters in his direction.
McCain is supported by 83% of Republicans, down from 84%, while Obama currently gets the vote from 74% of Democrats, up from 70% with much room to grow his lead. McCain leads by five points among independents, down from a thirteen point lead in May.
Expect Obama's margin in Michigan to continue to grow. Michigan is a blue state, and his prior polling numbers were artificially reduced by the scuffle over the seating of the Michigan delegates and the lack of support from Clinton's female supporters. For the same reason, I expect Obama to start moving up in Florida as well.