I'm going to have to keep this one short today because I have so many things to do, my apologies. Today I'll be looking at Southern candidates besides those in Virginia.
As much as everyone hoped that Barack Obama would be able to realign the electoral map in the South this November, trends in many of the Southern states do not point that way. While African-Americans across the South (and the entire nation) will vote for Obama is tremendous numbers, most of the South remains unapologetically conservative and will most likely stay that way. Pundits and poll watchers argue that the last two Democratic presidents have been Southern and therefore it might be in Obama's best interests to choose a vice-president who could swing the South to the Democrats.
The four Southern (non-Virginian) politicians who I have heard mentioned the most as a good running mate for Obama are: John Edwards, Kathleen Sebelius, Sam Nunn, and Al Gore. We'll look at each candidates advantages and disadvantages.
- John Edwards
Advantages:
a) He already is well known nationally and well liked. Recent polls indicate that Obama does extremely well with John Edwards as his running mate. I wish I could provide a link with evidence but if you search you can find it.
b) Obama and Edwards share similar styles with their change in Washington themes.
c) Obama's and Edwards' combined popularity in North Carolina may be able to tip it to the Democrats.
d) Edwards has already been vetted by the media so there won't be any nasty surprises along the way.
Disadvantages:
a) John Edwards has run for president twice and vice-president once. And there were rumors that he didn't campaign nearly as well for John Kerry as he should have and didn't defend him enough. Take that for what you will.
b) He really isn't that much more experienced than Obama. He was only in the Senate for one term.
c) Edwards has already said he won't run for vice-president again:
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/...
Although recently he has backed out of his past statement and seems willing to accept the job. Even if Obama does not pick Edwards as his running mate, he would make a great Attorney General.
- Kathleen Sebelius
Advantages:
a) Sebelius may be able to sway the disillusioned female voters who are leaning towards McCain. She is also very strong on women's rights.
b) She is a highly successful governor with a history of bipartisanship and has installed Republicans as lieutenant governors.
c) She is another early supporter of Obama.
Disadvantages:
a) Sebelius has no experience in national security.
b) She is not the best public speaker as her response to President Bush's last State of the Union address indicates.
c) Hillary supporters may be angered that a female candidate that is not Hillary Clinton has been chosen.
d) It is doubtful that she could swing Kansas or any state blue.
- Sam Nunn (former senator of Georgia)
Advantages:
a) Obama's popularity, combined with Bob Barr's candidacy (which we can only hope will gain much more popularity among evangelicals), and any lingering Nunn popularity could give Obama Georgia.
b) Nunn is an expert on national security and foreign policy. He has worked to reduce the growth of nuclear warheads.
c) Nunn has plenty of experience in bipartisanship and has worked with conservative stalwarts such as Fred Thompson and Richard Lugar.
d) Nunn left Washington because he became disenchanted with Washington D.C. and has endorsed Obama. Nunn may be the perfect blend between old Washington and change.
Disadvantages:
a) Nunn will turn 70 in September. One of Obama's biggest personal advantages over McCain is his age and liveliness. I expect that when people see Obama and McCain debating on television it will turn into a recap of the John F. Kennedy/Richard Nixon televised debates where people see how wooden and old McCain is compared to the sharp, charismatic, young Obama and will vote for Obama in droves. Do the Democrats really want a vice-president almost as old as McCain?
b) Nunn has a horrible record on gays in the military. Check it out:
http://pandagon.net/... . And while Nunn has since revised his opinion he should still give a public apology if he is chosen as vice-president.
c) Besides his stance on homosexuality Nunn is either moderate or conservative on social issues. He is in favor of school prayer and against limiting death penalty appeals. Obama needs a running mate who shares most of his views and Nunn may be too conservative.
d) Nunn's patriotism would probably be called into question because he voted against authorizing the Gulf War.
- Al Gore
Advantages:
a) All the experience Obama could ever need. Gore has been in the House, the Senate, and Vice-President for 8 years.
b) Gore still has quite a national profile and has won an Academy Award, a Nobel Peace Prize and brought global warming to international attention, and still being the guy who won the presidential election in 2000 but was deprived due to a bad Supreme Court decision and Joe Lieberman.
c) He could mop the floor with McCain on environmental issues and like Obama has always opposed the Iraq War.
Disadvantages (if you can call them that. I'm going to be harder on Gore then the other candidates because I like the idea of him as vice-president so much.):
a) What if Gore doesn't want to be vice-president for another four (to eight) years? Does anyone really want to play second-fiddle for more than eight years? Why would Gore want to re-enter the muddy world of politics that ended up biting him when he is now a Nobel Peace Prize winner? Al Gore has moved beyond partisan politics, would he really want to jump back into the fray?
b) A criticism of the Gore candidacy in 2000 was how moderate he presented himself. These days he is unabashed in his liberalism and his popularity has only climbed. If chosen hopefully he will not swing back to such a moderate position again.
c) He most likely couldn't win Tennessee for Obama. But then again no one could, what with t-shirts being printed there with pictures of Obama as a monkey.
d) Gore has been very vocal on his opinions about global warming and the Iraq War. But the Democrats need him to speak about other things like the faltering economy and high gas prices.
e) Where is Gore's base? Most people voting for Obama already care about the environment and the Iraq War. What new group of people does Gore bring to Obama's side?
All four of these candidates are strong, particularly Edwards and Gore. But just because Obama picks a running mate doesn't mean that person will accept.
That's it for this entry. My next article will be a brief interlude from the examination of individual vice-presidential candidates and will instead examine a generalization of the running mate process called: Running Mate Expectations: The Successor Strategy
Update: Two things:
- My bad for calling Kansas part of the South. The state is indeed part of the Midwest. To make up for it, I'll talk about Sebelius when I cover the Midwest and include her in the poll.
- I probably should have mentioned Wesley Clark but I don't know if he is being considered a serious contender. Besides the various liberal blogs and rumor mills, has anyone heard anything official about Clark being in the running for vice-president? Wesley Clark would shore up Obama on national security but would he accept the vice-presidential nomination? Is Wesley Clark still well-known? And there are criticisms on his campaigning abilities and what he actually stands for. Truth be told I don't know much about the man but I found this old New York Times article interesting:
http://query.nytimes.com/...