Some people are already talking landslide. In historical terms, we are actually heading in 2008 for another election with a below average electoral vote total for the winner.
No doubt our perceptions have been skewed by recent presidential elections, the last four of which have been won with below average numbers of electoral votes received by the winner, the last two of which were among the closest presidential elections in U.S. history. Even the 1988 election was only slightly above average in terms of electoral votes. A bit of historical perspective is in order.
Since 1908, the average percentage of the electoral vote received by the winner of the presidential election is almost exactly 75%. In 2008, that would mean 404 EV. The median is not much different; in fact, it is slightly higher: since 1908, 11 victories were of less than 75% and 14 victories were of more than 75%. I would argue that the threshold for true landslide elections is 90% of the electoral vote. That means 1932 was a near miss, while 1936, 1964, 1972, 1980, and 1984 were all landslides -- although 1980 is suspect because Reagan received less than 51% of the popular vote, while the other landslide winners received 60% or more of the popular vote.
In 2008, the chances of a 90% electoral vote and 60% popular vote win currently look to be slim to none. Best estimates currently give Obama a win in the mid to high 300s. That is a long way from a landslide and is actually quite a way short of even an average electoral vote win. To see just how much below average it is, find an interactive electoral vote map like the one at 270towin.com and see just how deeply into red states you need to go before Obama totals more than 400 electoral votes. My most likely scenario for Obama winning an historically average number of electoral votes has McCain winning only ID, WY, UT, AZ, NE, KS, OK, TX, AR, MS, KY, TN, AL, GA, and SC. I consider that large of a win for Obama to be possible but very unlikely. Thus we are heading not for any kind of landslide, but rather for another below average election.
Just a gentle reminder that there is no room for complacency and much work still to be done -- both before and after the election.