On this and all the other blogs I read, on all the cable political shows I watch, in newspapers available to me, I have yet to see any serious discussion of possibly the second most important decision each prospective nominee faces this summer other than his VP choice.
That question is - when should each candidate make his annoucement? And should Obama play games and try to force McCain to annouce first?
Because of specific factors this year, this is a particularly interesting question. But before reviewing the them, some history first below...
Younger readers (under 45) might not be aware that choosing a VP candidate before a party's convention, unless he is being renominated, used to never be done.
Mainly this was because conventions were somewhat to very much anything but pro forma in the process, making any early announcement possibly premature. But it also was always considered something appropriate for the convention, and usually announced in the hours after the presidential candidate was nominated (on Wednesday) and before the acceptance speeches Thursday night (in other words, a fast-paced, rushed process).
Not until Walter Mondale named Geraldine Ferraro in 1984 has the choice been named before a convention.
Others have been announced within a fairly narrow period - Kerry the earliest, but still within three weeks of the convention.
With that background, we enter into this year's circumstances:
- There is no incumbent Vice President. (In fact, this will be the first election since 1952 that no sitting President or Vice President will be on a ticket). So, both candidates will be picking someone new
- Both conventions will be very late, unlike most previous years when at least one was in July, thus much closer to the November election.
- The Republican convention is one week after the Democrats - that has never happened before. Usually there have been several weeks inbetween, making it more logical for the announcements to be spaced apart.
- The Olympics are expected to dominate much of the airwaves in August, leading to the suggestion by many that both announcements will be made earlier.
So where we are at is that the normal timing of past years don't necessarily apply, even under the more recent pattern of the choice being made within three weeks.
And that leads to the point - who goes first? And what difference could it make?
Never - let me emphasize never - has the nominee with the second convention in a year when there is no current VP made his choice before the other party.
But could this happen this year?
It sure could - and thus we have the most underreported story of the season.
It seems to make sense that the candidate who is clearly behind going into August, if there is still a definite gap, might need to make his choice to have the advantage of shaking up the race and making news.
Or Sen. Obama might decide, you know what, I could wait until the convention and add to the suspense AND possibly force Sen. McCain to make his choice before. Remember, choosing second is a big advantage.
Sen. Obama could decide to wait until just before the Olympics, making McCain do it during the possibly less-visible period during the games.
Sen. McCain might decide to try to steal some thunder and make his choice known during the Democratic convention.
But if either waits to the last minute, it decreases the amount of time to introduce the choice (hardly matters if it is Clinton or Romney, but is a big deal if its Sebelius or Rob Portman).
So again - this is a huge decision, almost as big as the choice itself. And yet no one, outside of I assume the highest echalons of both campaigns, seems to be paying any attention.
So let's play the game - if you were Obama or McCain, when would you make the announcement?