Recently much of the discussion on this board has centered around Obama's position on issues such as FISA as well as other issues in which many members of this community feel he has betrayed his strongest supporters. The sense that I get is that it is not the specific issues that people are concerned (though the issues themselves are important) but to larger extent what it means about Obama as a candidate and future leader. The question is asked, are we heading towards another Bill Clinton style Presidency full of triangulation a little accomplishment? Every speech he gives, every comment he makes is heavily analyzed by those who would take both sides of this question. Before we judge Obama we must wait until we see how he acts when in power with congress solidly behind him. Comparing the campaigns of leaders such as Lincoln and Roosevelt with what they later accomplished shows why this is the case.
I believe we are entering a period in history on par with the revolutionary war, civil war, and the depression/world war 2. The books Generations and the Fourth Turning show a cyclical pattern to history in which every 80 years or so we confront a crisis that has the potential to tear society apart or allow us to rebuild in a new way. The crisis of peak oil and global warming alone have the potential to require drastic changes to our infrastructure with the risk of food shortages and a paralyzed country if we do not deal with them. If we add in to that the risk of confrontations both with middle eastern nations over oil but also with nations such as China and Russia as the supplies dwindle the situation seems potentially terrifying.
The 2 most recent crisis periods in the history of our country were the civil war and great depression/world war 2. A recent diary compares Obama to Lincoln noting especially his election campaign. While Lincoln's time period is a good comparison the current situation it is different in one key way. In Lincoln's time the country was hopelessly divided over slavery. A crisis period requires a head on attack of the important issues of the day. In Lincoln's time, confronting this issues seems to have required a drastic split in the country, held off only by continued comprise. Fortunately we are not nearly as divided today. We can confront our difficulties together as a nation. The diary above makes the point that it wasn't clear exactly what Lincoln would do until he was elected and ultimately freed the slaves and held the country together. If we examine Roosevelt's first election campaign, we see a similar situation. Let's take a trip back to the summer of 1932....
I pledge you, I pledge myself, to a new deal for the American people.
The words of course of Franklin Delano Roosevelt on the floor of the 1932 democratic convention. A promise of something new, a new beginning for the people of America. Today of course we associate this with the great infrastructure projects of the 30's, with social security, and collective the strengthening of collective bargaining. The question then, how clear were his plans in the campaign of 1932?
He campaigned on hope, honesty and not being bound by the traditions of the past.
From the same speech:
Let it also be symbolic that in so doing I broke traditions. Let it be from now on the task of our Party to break foolish traditions. We will break foolish traditions and leave it to the Republican leadership, far more skilled in that art, to break promises.
He campaigned on unity:
That is why we are going to make the voters understand this year that this Nation is not merely a Nation of independence, but it is, if we are to survive, bound to be a Nation of interdependence—town and city, and North and South, East and West. That is our goal, and that goal will be understood by the people of this country no matter where they live.
Also ending the period of selfishness that proceeded this time period:
One word more: Out of every crisis, every tribulation, every disaster, mankind rises with some share of greater knowledge, of higher decency, of purer purpose. Today we shall have come through a period of loose thinking, descending morals, an era of selfishness, among individual men and women and among Nations. Blame not Governments alone for this. Blame ourselves in equal share. Let us be frank in acknowledgment of the truth that many amongst us have made obeisance to Mammon, that the profits of speculation, the easy road without toil, have lured us from the old barricades. To return to higher standards we must abandon the false prophets and seek new leaders of our own choosing.
(See the video by David Ritchie for more about the campaign)
He travelled the country speaking to exuberant hopeful crowds while Hoover spoke to such somber crowds that he compared his train to Hardings funeral train. He would taylor make his speeches to fit the location at which it was to be given and his speeches would often represent the work of many individuals with conflicting beliefs. This would lead to his opponents referring to his speeches as self contradictory and his goals difficult to pin down. Hoover referred to Roosevelt as a "Chameleon on plaid"
He wasn't free from attack from the left either. The Liberals were upset regarding his statement of lack of support for the League of Nations, despite the fact that he privately supported it.
He focused on issues that while important were hardly the fundamentals of what he would later do.
From wikipedia:
Economist Marriner Eccles observed that "given later developments, the campaign speeches often read like a giant misprint, in which Roosevelt and Hoover speak each other's lines."[28] Roosevelt denounced Hoover's failures to restore prosperity or even halt the downward slide, and he ridiculed Hoover's huge deficits. Roosevelt campaigned on the Democratic platform advocating "immediate and drastic reductions of all public expenditures," "abolishing useless commissions and offices, consolidating bureaus and eliminating extravagances reductions in bureaucracy," and for a "sound currency to be maintained at all hazards."
Hope, unity, attacks from the left and right on specific issues as well as charges that his plans aren't specific enough and perhaps contradictory; emphasis on a balanced budget and deficits; the appearance of trying to please everyone.... In many ways this sounds similar to what Obama and his detractors are putting forward. In both cases the lack of clarity could both be due to political machinations as well as a lack of knowledge as to exactly what will work to deal with the problems present in such a difficult and uncertain time.
In Roosevelt's case his underlying principles showed through when he was finally given the chance to lead. He rebuilt our infrastructure, gave opportunity to those who didn't have it, propped up unions and created social security. It can be argued that his policies helped lead to the period of equality and prosperity that followed the completion of the war. Most important were the underlying strong principles that he (as Obama hopefuly will) carried into office.
My point is not that Obama will rise to the level great men such as Roosevelt and Lincoln, that remains to be seen. My point is that before we judge him we need to see how he behaves once he has power. He will likely enter office with a strong and growing mandate and a strong democratic majority in congress behind him. We won't be discussing Obama caving to the republicans because the republicans won't be powerful enough to be worth caving to! Right now we need to make sure that the democrats solidly take this election and when we enter that new world that exists on the other side of January's inauguration we will get to see what his true colors are.