A 400 person, demographically balanced, independent poll shows that even in the reddest district, Republicans are in trouble. See the results of the poll in California's 48th District with a 26% Democratic registration.
www.SteveYoungforCongress.com
An independent pollster conducted a viability poll in California's 48th district. The poll sampled 400 voters demographically balanced to the make up of the district (Dems, GOP and decline to state). The margin of error is 5%.
One of the first questions asked of each person was, "Who would you vote for?" At the end of the poll, the pollster asked, "Now that you know more about both candidates, who would you vote for?"
The results surprised the pollster, and led him to conclude I CAN WIN THIS ELECTION.
On the "first ballot" John Campbell, the Republican, was ahead of me 46% to 32%.
On the "Second Ballot" after going through the issues, the response was staggering . . . 43% FOR ME AND 37% FOR CAMPBELL.
The fact that my numbers moved so much is remarkable. The experts best hope for me was that I would be within 5 to 7 points of Campbell . . . no one thought I would overtake the incumbent – No one expected me to win.
Something else important happened for our campaign Saturday – a well known political power in our area attended the report meeting. When the consultant heard the numbers, he told me, "I will work for your campaign for free." I am staggered that he thinks my race is worth working on. It says to me the poll is real, it says to me, this is not a lark.
Imagine a truly competitive race for congress in one of the reddest districts in the country. Imagine a Republican on the run in our area. Imagine a fully funded campaign that meets the Republican blow for blow and wins.
I asked, "What do I need to do to win?"
He said, "Your viability poll is the first step. It identified issues that moved the voters. Now you need to conduct a messaging poll to figure out how to present those issues to voters. With that information, I can put a properly stated message into the right voters’ hands to win this."
The path to my victory is clear – I need a second poll that will cost $30,000.00. I have to raise the money to do that second poll. I need to raise $30,000.00 in 30 days to conduct the messaging poll. Can you help me?
I need contributions, and I need to expand my reach beyond you. Please hit the Contribute arrow on the thermometer now – don’t wait – and make a contribution. Then I hope you can give me the names of your friends that I can meet, hopefully at a "Meet Steve" event at your home – this will allow me to multiply my reach by 20 times.
If you can host a lunch or dinner for 20 donor prospects or more that will help. Please call us to schedule a time when you can invite your friends and contacts to come a Steve Young "Meet and Greet." Our number is (949) 640-4400 – ask for Marion.
With gratitude and best wishes,
Steve Young, Democrat for Congress [Ca-48]
"For a fresh start"
www.SteveYoungforCongress.com
PS: The first question the press always asks me is, "How much money have you raised?" The question isn't about money. It's really asking, "How strong is your support in the district?" Your contribution, no matter the amount shows support for my campaign. Please contribute now, so I can tell the press, "My district supports me." Hit the Contribute Link now. $100, $500 or more to Steve Young for Congress. Thank you.
Steve
UPDATE
Newspaper coverage is beginning in our district. Tomorrow's Daily Pilot will run the following story:
POLL: YOUNG CAN DO IT
An internal poll from Democrat Steve Young’s campaign is claiming the challenger has a shot in November of taking down incumbent Republican Rep. John Campbell.
The poll that Young commissioned showed that when respondents were first asked whom they would vote for, Campbell took a lead of 46% to 32%. But the tides changed.
When respondents were briefed on issues and later asked whom they would support, Young came out the victor, 43% to 37%.
The poll sampled 400 voters in South Orange County, with 47% Republicans and a margin of error at 5%, according to Young.
Young’s campaign is using the poll for fundraising.
"The political landscape is changing in our area, and apparently voters are tired of taxation without representation since Campbell won’t bring anything to our district for the projects that we need," Young said.
Efforts to reach Campbell for comment were unsuccessful Wednesday.
Young said the results surprised him, as he expected to be about nine points away from Campbell, nowhere near where he ended up.
"I fell off my chair when we got to the end of the poll," Young said.