Every State. Every race. Right here.
This is number 22 in a planned series of 50 entries between now and November, looking at each of the 50 states in terms of every race on that state's ticket--Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, House, State legislatures--the whole Colonel’s Big Bucket! Special attention paid to identifying and promoting the most important contests per state.
Today, put on your favorite bluegrass album, pull up a chair on the back porch, pour yourself a mint julep and prepare to discuss KENTUCKY!
The Bluegrass State is culturally diverse, from the Appalachian east to the river town west, with a lot of farm country in the middle. Like Ohio to the north and Missouri to the west, it is a potpourri of several kinds of American culture and something of a bellweather state, having voted with the declared winner in every Presidential election since I was born. however, while the Ohio and Missouri potpourris include prominent slices of the blue-favored urban rust belt, Kentucky's main colors are Appalachia, farm belt, Dixie and Twain country, and only the last of those can be described as pro-Dem, and it exists in the smallest proportion of the four. Therefore, it starts out with a GOP tilt overall.
Most Kentucky natives could stand to benefit from a dose of good old fashioned New Deal Liberalism. Their jobs are dropping in the shredder and the unregulated mine pollution and farm pesticides are poisoning their children. They should be marching in the streets demanding change. Instead...not so much. Part of our mission is to find out why and do something about it.
BLOGS: Bluegrass Roots is the blog of choice for Kentucky Progressives.
http://www.bluegrassroots.org/
A Note on Appalachia Regionally, the Appalachian mountain range hasn’t gone Democratic for President since 1976. Poorer, older, less educated and losing population compared to the rest of the US, this was a backbone of the New Deal coalition but has fallen away from us in a big way over the last 30 years. There are various theories running around, including "values voting", racism, the Democratic Party being out of touch with rural voters, or just people getting more conservative as they get older. I have no idea which is correct. In fact, I was hoping some 50-state strategy minded Kosters might put our heads together and work on the problem.
There’s about a dozen states fully or partly in Appalachia. Some of them, like Maryland and Pennsylvania, are so blue outside of their mountainous parts that it doesn’t matter. Other states, like Alabama, are so red that the bluing of Appalachia might not make a difference. And some states, like Ohio, Virginia and Tennessee, are swing states with some blue and red parts outside of the Mountains---and Appalachia, while not populous enough to decide an election by itself, might play kingmaker. For example, if a Democrat in Ohio won big in Cleveland and other cities and lost big in the western farm counties, the southeast, Appalachian area of Ohio (now represented by two Democrats, Charles Wilson and Zack Space), while having only 1/9 of the state’s population, could be enough to put the Dem over the top statewide—or to sink her.
The two exceptions, where Appalacha really does dominate the population and political landscape, are West Virginia (a bedrock blue state that still elects Democrats to everything but President, and which went easily for Clinton twice and even for Dukakis. And a mere two Presidential elections later, the CW is "completely unwinnable by any Democrat". More on this when we cover WV later)—and to a lesser extent Kentucky.
Of the six congressional districts, the first is a lot like east Missouri or south Illinois—Twainesque river country, moderately Democratic and blue, even. District 2 is a farm belt district, District 3 is mostly Louisville, and the other three are classic Appalachia. That’s half the state.
PRESIDENT: Clinton won here twice without having to work too hard. Gore tried to take it for granted, saw too late that it was in play, and failed to catch back up, and to my knowledge Kerry never even tried. Obama is using the 50-state strategy and is expected to fight everywhere. And yet—KY and WV represented the nadir of the primary season for him. He pulled out all the stops and still lost—badly—to Hillary Clinton in both states. Therefore, some say it would be a wise business decision for Obama to abandon Kentucky and use the resources to shore up Ohio and Missouri, or to make a bold play for North Dakota or Montana or Alaska where his win would be both possible and remarkable.
In fact, the argument sounds compelling to me, and I’m calling on Bluegrass Roots and other Kentucky progressives to make the case that it would be worthwhile for Obama to continue to compete here. And while we’re at it, to explain why Obama did poorly here in May. Here are the reasons I’ve heard so far, and I don’t swallow any of them:
"KENTUCKY IS RACIST". I call bullshit on this one. Also on similar claims about WV, TN, etc. A lot of Appalachia became Republican out of solidarity with the Union and Lincoln during the Civil War. Heck, WV became a state in the first place because it chose to split from Virginia rather than join the slavers in their own nation. Similarly, the rest of the South was Democratic for 100 years after that and switched Republican afterwards when it became clear that the Democrats were no longer the racist party. The silver lining should have been an equal and opposite shift to the Democrats in Appalachia districts that had been GOP for 100 years. And I’m still trying to figure out why that didn’t happen.
"KENTUCKY IS TOO CONSERVATIVE". That’s not a reason not to fight. If it was, we wouldn’t be competing in Nebraska, Texas, and Friggin’ IDAHO! Besides, it’s false. Kentucky is red of center, but nothing compared to, say, Alabama or Utah. And also, Kentucky is POPULIST—socially conservative but economically receptive to liberal ideas, especially in hard economic times. The Second Bush Recession is an IDEAL time to press for New Deal-style cash infusions for the poor, the rural, the hard-hit by gas prices and mill closures.
"THE BITTERNESS COMMENT DID OBAMA IN". No, it didn’t. And are you really going to tell me that hardscrabble voters will respond to charges of ‘elitism’ from a rich old white guy with eight vacation homes who flies his wife’s private plane everywhere?
"IT’S THE GUN NUTS". Except Obama isn’t calling for gun control, and McCain talks out of both sides of his mouth.
And I don’t have a plausible alternative. In fact, I’m surprised at Appalachia’s rejection of Obama. My evidence says they should be welcoming him, so clearly there’s a flaw in my views.
Anyhow, I’m calling KY likely McCain. I welcome discussion in the comments.
SENATE: Bruce Lunsford (D) v. Mitchell "Thew Penguin" McConnell (Inc R).
THE BIG ONE for Kentucky 2008.
I call the incumbent Senator Penguin for short because the first time I saw him, I thought I was looking at Burgess Meredith portraying the little monocled waddler on the old Batman series. It stuck. Penguin has been trying to run bluegrass politics with an iron fist ever since he became Senator, and now the cracks are showing. He went to the mat to get corrupt Governor Fletcher replaced by Ann Northrup, and failed in the primary, and then Fletcher failed too. He is loathed by Democrats. Let’s lose this guy.
Lunsford has enough of his own money to make this race competitive, and polls have shown him within striking distance. He’s on the CQ, Cook and Clizilla top ten Senate races to watch lists. This one can be done, and would be a crucial, crucial step in the quest to get to 60 Senate seats. Since Penguin is the GOP Senate leader, this would also be payback for Tom Daschle 2004.
Lunsford is a blue dog who would sit with the Democrats and probably vote with the Republicans more often than the purists would like. If that bothers you, no problem—I’ve got a different Kentucky race downticket that might suit your interest better. Just please, if you can’t bring yourself to support a blue dog, just ignore it, go concentrate on a race you can support, and don’t go tearing Lunsford down. McConnell will spend GOP money doing that for you.
I support Lunsford because even the most conservative Democrat is more liberal than the most liberal Republican. We’ve seen that over and over. And Penguin is not the most liberal Republican. He’s a First Class piece of penguin guano! I would gladly support Joe Lieberman himself if he had moved to Kentucky (where his views are probably more in line with the voters) and opposed Penguin as a Democrat. Heck, even as the "Kentucky for Traitor Joe" party candidate. Penguin is THAT bad.
Also, Lunsford is a wise business decision. A hardcore pure liberal wouldn’t make it here, and wouldn’t have the money to compete. Plus, we’ve already had the primary. Lunsford is our candidate. Up with Bruce and down with Penguin. That’s all there is to it, and it’s the most important race in Kentucky in 2008.
http://www.bruce2008.com/
GOVERNOR AND OTHER STATEWIDE: Not up in 2008, though we’re doing good in the state government. In 2007, Governor Steve Beshear ate the corrupt Ernie Fletcher for lunch and didn’t even need an antacid. Democrats also control the offices of Lt. Governor, Attorney General and State Treasurer, with the GOP Sec of State being the only statewide office held by a Republican (besides the two Senators).
STATE LEGISLATURE: Divided, with one party firmly in control of each body.
Democrats control the House of Representatives, 63D-37R.
Republicans control the Senate, 15D, 22R, with one Independent. Need to flip four senate seats to control the Senate, and all of Kentucky’s state government.
CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS:
District 1—Heather Ryan (D) v. "Exxon Ed" Whitfield (Inc R).
OK, up above, I said I had a downticket race for the purity Kosters who don’t want to support a blue dog against Senator Penguin. This is that race. And best of all, you can blacken Penguin’s eye by supporting this one, as well.
Heather Ryan is a navy veteran, all-American mother and a red white and blue progressive. She is one of us. And her teeth-gnashing story was all over Kos a few months back, how she was the director of a non-profit movie theater, who tried to ask a few inconvenient questions to Senator Penguin during his visit to Paducah, and how Penguin retaliated by calling local officials and threatening to withdraw federal funding for Paducah riverfront projects if Ryan wasn’t fired. That was low, even for a Republican Senator!
So if you want to send a message to the GOP, hurt The Penguin, and send a true progressive to Washington from Kentucky, this is the race to do it. Show those blue dogs that a real progressive can win!
http://www.ryanforkentucky.com/
District 2—David Boswell (D) v. S. Brett Guthrie (R). An open, agricultural district including Bowling Green. Recent polls show this one surprisingly neck and neck. Retiring Rep. Ron Lewis caused a minor scandal trying to handpick his successor by announcing his retirement as the filing deadline was passing, leaving only one candidate. He failed, and Guthrie, a neophyte, ended up as their nominee. This won’t be easy to win, but thanks to Boswell, it is very much on the map as a pickup opportunity. Kentucky natives who want to make a difference should give this one a look.
http://davidboswellforkentucky.com/
District 3— John Yarmuth (Inc D) v. Ann Northrup (R, two-time loser). Picking up the Louisville district was a big feather in our cap in 2006, and the GOP was scrambling for revenge. Too bad for them, their heavy hitters said no to running, and they were stuck bringing back Northup from her loss in the Governor’s primary, under circumstances that made it look like the party had to settle for her since nobody better wanted to be the sacrificial lamb. Yarmuth’s not quite out of the woods, but this district looks safer for him with every new poll.
http://yarmuth.house.gov/
District 4—Michael Kelley (D) v. Geoffrey Davis (Inc R). We’ve had some heartbreaking losses trying to take back this Covington-based district in 2004 and 2006, and a lot of Democrats were ready to give up and concentrate on the Senate race and the first three congressional districts. However, a recent poll showing this one very close may have put the 4th back into play.
http://kelley08.com/
District 5—Jim Holbert (Independent) v. Harold Rogers (Inc. R). This coal district has one of the lowest median incomes in the nation, and yet the people here regularly choose Republican Harold Rogers to represent them, even though he screws their economic interests every time. Rogers has been here since before I started keeping track in the Reagan era, and even since before the South started voting regularly Republican. This is also one of just a doxen or so seats out of 435 where the Democrats didn’t even bother to field a candidate. However, progressive Independent Jim Holbert is there to give the voters an alternative. If you look at the "issues" section of his website, I believe you’ll like what he stands for.
https://www.jimholbert2008.com/
District 6—Ben Chandler (Inc. D) is safe in this central KY district that straddles the mountains to the east and the farm belt to the west and includes Lexington. His special election in 2004 was an early Kos success story.
REDISTRICTING KENTUCKY: We could have the redistricting trifecta by 2010. If we do, the best action if we don’t take the 2nd this year would be to lose the long stretch of rural TN border in the 1st and instead add Owensboro and/or Bowling Green to the 1st, making it a decisively blue district. If we do control the 2nd, add Henderson to it and make the 1st more rural.
I would also add most of the eastern, mountainous 4th to the existing 5th, so that the 5th was completely Appalachian and the 4th snaked down from Covington on the west side of the 6th. Harold Rogers is getting a little old, and when he leaves, the best way to make the seat go Democratic is to have it completely in the mountains.
That would leave Democrats with one of the first two districts, and the 3rd, 6th, and an eventual shot at the 5th. Four of six is likely the best we could do.
If Kentucky loses a district, then DEFNITELY make the 1st compact and Democratic, and the 5th sprawl across the whole east. The 4th would probably be the one to go, with the existing 6th becoming much smaller geographically, and containing Covington, Frankfort, Lexington and not much else except what’s in between. The 3rd would expand a bit ut of Louisville and the 2nd would extend to TN and everything left over. Democrats would have reasonable shots at everything except the 2nd.
What do YOU think?
Previous diaries in this series:
Delaware: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Arkansas: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Illinois: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Texas, Part One: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Texas, Part Two: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Utah: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Massachusetts: http://www.dailykos.com/...
North Carolina: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Hawaii: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Mississippi: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Oregon: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Ohio: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Maryland: http://www.dailykos.com/...
North Dakota: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Alabama: http://www.dailykos.com/...
California, Part one: http://www.dailykos.com/...
California, Part two: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Vermont: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Iowa: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Virginia: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Wyoming: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Pennsylvania: http://www.dailykos.com/...
New Mexico: http://www.dailykos.com/...