Every State. Every race. Right here.
This is number 27 in a planned series of 50 entries between now and November, looking at each of the 50 states in terms of every race on that state's ticket--Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, House, State legislatures--the whole Springsteen tour. Special attention paid to identifying and promoting the most important contests per state.
This time, we look at the Garden State (in need of a new gardener). New Jersey, COME ON DOWN!
http://www.nationalatlas.com/...
New Jersey used to be something of a swing state, but has become noticeably blue in recent years, voting Democratic for President in every year since 1988 and for Senate in every election since 1980.
Statewide, the parties are seriously concentrated, with Democrats in the southern tip, the dense northeast, and a strip from the Northeast down towards Trenton; and Republicans in the south-central and northwest. Take a look at the breakdown in the State Senate:
http://en.wikipedia.org/...
A bigger threat than the Republicans is infighting among New Jersey Democrats themselves, with the South Jersey political machine fighting with the North Jersey/Statewide party. Hence Rob Andrews giving up his South Jersey congressional seat for a failed and pointless primary attack on our Senator Lautenberg. I have no idea what caused this infighting, what it’s about, or who’s in the right, but I will note that part of the result has been the continued existence of Republicans taking up space in South Jersey US House districts 2, 3 and 4, when any or all of them lean blue and are competitive for Democrats (this year, the 3rd, at least, will turn, but jeez, youse guys! Don’t make me turn this state around!)
BLOGS: BLUE JERSEY and You: Perfect Together!
http://www.bluejersey.com/
PRESIDENT: : Safe Obama, like most of the Northeast.
SENATE: (Frank Lautenberg (Inc D) v. Dick "The Dick" Zimmer (R). To TeamDemocrat’s credit, this absolutely safe seat is really the second most competitive Senate seat (after Louisiana) already held by the Democrats—which says more about the absolute safety of ten other Democrats than it does about Lautenberg, who isn’t going anywhere. People pointing to this race cite three reasons: The primary with Rob Andrews (in which Lautenberg ate Andrews for lunch with no discernible damage); Lautenberg’s age (which is laughable, considering that many Senators are comfortably re-elected at similar or more advanced ages, and that the Republican Party, given the codger at the top of their ticket, is in no position to throw stones); and a smattering of polls, all of which show Lautenberg leading, but not by a whole lot (quite similar in fact to those of the Kean-Menendez Senate contest of 2006, in which Menendez, though not as well known as Lautenberg, handily whupped a much more popular Republican than Zimmer). But go ahead, Republicans, please throw your money away on this one. Our Democrats in more competitive races in states with Republican incumbents won’t mind a bit.
http://www.lautenbergfornj.com/...
GOVERNORS AND OTHER STATEWIDE: New Jersey apparently has only one statewide elected office in the whole state, and that’s the Governor, John Corzine (D), up for re-election in 2009. Nothing to do here this year.
STATE LEGISLATURE:
General Assembly: 48D, 32R. That’s a 16 seat majority for Team Democrat.
Senate: 23D, 17R, for a 6 seat Democratic majority. 3 flips to the Repugs would tie the chamber; 4 would lose it.
However, those are races to look at in 2009. None of them are up this year.
http://en.wikipedia.org/...
http://en.wikipedia.org/...
CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS:
District 1—Camille Andrews (D). A safe blue district directly across the state line from Philadelphia. Andrews is the wife of Incumbent Congressman Rob Andrews, who stunned everybody earlier in the year by giving up his safe seat to run, and lose, against Frank Lautenberg in the US Senate primary. Camille Andrews filed for the seat, leaving the question, is she running in her own right, or is she just being a placeholder, intending to step aside and let her husband back in? Either way, the seat is safe Democrat; however, the whole stunt raises issues about the political system.
http://www.camilleandrews08.com/
District 2—David Kurkowski (D) v. Frank LoBiondo (Inc R). The 2nd, 3rd and 4th districts are the shame of New Jersey: southern +D PVI districts that are held by Republicans. The 2nd, in particular, is one that the GOP has no basis for occupation. Look at the State Senate map above; every part of NJ-02 is within the southern patch of solid blue, which means that every legislative district within the 2nd is itself Democratic-leaning. And yet, there’s LoBiondo, with the Democrats not even giving him much of a fight. State Senator Jeff Van Drew is a Democratic rock star who would surely take the seat; however, he’s not running. Kurkowski is a councilman from Cape May (the little nipple-peninsula at the southern tip of NJ), and ought to make the race at least interesting; however, he’s doing it with zero help from the DCCC or the NJ Democratic party. It could be that they’re preoccupied by the 3rd, 5th and 7th districts, but I don’t see any other excuse.
http://www.kurkowskiforcongress.com/
District 3—John Adler (D). Now we’re talking! The second of the 3 blue districts held by Republicans is now open, and Adler is poised to give it the Democratic representation it deserves. In a year in which Democrats are competing all over the country, this district is usually listed as the very most likely district of them all to flip to the Democrats.
http://www.adlerforcongress.com/
District 4—Josh Zeitz (D) v. Christopher Smith (Inc R). Another +D district still represented by a Republican. Smith got his nose in the tent after the early 80s ABSCAM scandal, and hasn’t been seriously challenged since. Zeitz is looking to change that, but this one isn’t on the map yet, in part due to the neighboring 3rd and 7th sucking ALL of the energy out of the race. As with the 2nd, the day isn’t far when we’ll win this one for the Dems, but the Joisey Dems need to stop their civil war first.
http://joshzeitz.com/
District 5—Dennis Shulman (D) v. Scott Garrett (Inc R)
Now, THIS one really intrigues me! Shulman, a blind psychologist and rabbi, is one of our more colorful candidates of the year, which is saying a lot. He has a gentle, sonorous, serious voice that I could probably listen to for hours, just for the tonal quality, even if he was speaking Hebrew and I couldn’t understand a word. If you can understand him, he is also clearly a wise man (as opposed to the typical "wise guy" in congress) who feeds the deep hunger for meaning and honor that the American people have. He’s endorsed by unions, receiving help from the DCCC (and he should get some from you, too), and Cook and other race rankers have been taking notice and moving the race out of "safe GOP’-ville, based on Shulman’s efforts. He’s done the work to show he’s competitive; now it is our turn to meet him partway.
Good God. America NEEDS a Congressman like Shulman doing sensible things for America. Needs his voice. And yes, I for one am proud enough of my country that I dare say we DESERVE him.
The district is not easy to win; it’s been gerrymandered pro-Republican by adding a long tail around the north edge of NJ and deep down the west edge along the PA border. The good news is that the incumbent Gooper is the kind of wingnut more appropriate for west Texas than for a quiet NJ district that would be happier with a Chris Shays type. He’s too far to the right for the northeast and will ALSO have a hard time staying in office.
http://shulmanforcongress.com/
District 6—Frank Pallone (Inc D)—Safe Democrat from Bruce Springsteen’s stomping grounds.
District 7—Linda Stender (D) v. Leonard Lance (R). A central Jersey district going from the urban suburbs out to the PA border near Allentown. And I love Adler and especially Shulman, but I have to call NJ-7 THE BIG ONE if I can choose only one, just in terms of political possibility. The 3rd is already close to in the bag, and the 5th is too much of an uphill climb to justify knocking out the 7th.
You may remember Linda Stender from 2006, where she almost took out the incumbent. Now the seat is open, and she has an edge, albeit a small one. It’s a solid, top tier pickup opportunity for a Better Democrat.
http://www.lindastenderforcongress.com/
District 8—Bill Pascrell (Inc D). Now we come to the four Northeast, urban Joisey districts (8, 9, 10, and 13) where no Republican need apply. The suburbs can be swing districts, but these four are where we get our victory margins statewide. Pascrell is safe.
District 9— Steve Rothman (Inc D). See #8 above. Safe Dem
District 10—Don Payne (Inc D) An African American district, including Newark, that will have a surge of turnout for Obama. Safe Dem
District 11—Tom Wyka (D) v. Rodney Freylingheylinghuylingsen (Inc. R) I think I stuck a couple extra syllables in that guy’s name; it’s hard to keep track. He can pass for an actual human being if you squint, but there’s a little panel at the back of his neck where all the wires are.
The 11th is the closest thing to a safe Republican red district anywhere northeast of Pennsyltucky, which STILL would make the affluent commuters to the executive suites of NYC be considered dangerous commies if they were transplanted to the gulf coast, but still, this one isn’t on the map for now. Concerned Democrats are turning to the Shulman race in the 5th, which almost surrounds the 11th, and they’re saving this one for another year.
Pay Wyka a visit, though. He ran last year and got whupped, and he’ll probably get whupped again, and he keeps getting up and continuing to fight and one day Freylingwhatsisname will decide he’s had enough and we can get the open district. That’s what you do in a district like this.
http://www.tomwyka.com/
District 12—Rush Holt (Inc Dem). Ah yes, the good Rep. Holt. He first got my attention before even being elected, in 1998, because his GOP incumbent opponent got up on his hind legs on the House floor during the Clinton impeachment and sang his own original song, "Twinkle Twinkle Kenneth Starr, now we know how brave you are"! Really SANG it! Isn’t it precious when Republicans who took "business poetry" as their one required Humanities elective try to get creative in public? Holt’s cheapest-ever campaign ad consisted entirely of video footage of that song, followed by the voiceover "Congressman Blohardt: Out of touch...and out of tune!"
I’ve been in love with Holt ever since. He won a landslide in a swing central NJ district and hasn’t looked back since. Safe Dem
District 13—Albio Sires (Inc D)—the district that Bob Menendez held before moving up to Senator. Safe Dem.
REDISTRICTING NEW JERSEY: It’ll be done by a nonpartisan commission, so no point in getting too creative here. They say NJ will lose a district, and I’d like it to be the 4th. Add Trenton to the 3rd, so that it doesn’t sprawl across the whole state; bring the Pallone district down to Toms River and Ocean County on the east like it did in the 1980s when it was the 3rd district, and then squeeze the 2nd and 12th together to meet in the middle. Or just have the 3rd and 6th (Pallone’s would be the new 4th and Sires’ the new 6th) touch.
Also, if Shulman wins the 5th district, we can nonpartisanly remove Warren and South Sussex Counties from it. They don’t geographically belong there. The 11th can go against the PA border, the 5th go down a little into NE NJ, and the four east NJ districts each come out a little to fill in the gap.
That’s the result I pray for, anyhow. It might not be possible to eliminate a southern district, since the bulk of Jersey’s population growth has been in the southern half of the state. The good news is, the growth has favored Democrats.
Here is an article from Blue Jersey concerning redistricting as it applies to the State Senate: http://www.bluejersey.com/...
What do YOU think?
Previous diaries in this series:
Delaware: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Arkansas: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Illinois: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Texas, Part One: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Texas, Part Two: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Utah: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Massachusetts: http://www.dailykos.com/...
North Carolina: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Hawaii: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Mississippi: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Oregon: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Ohio: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Maryland: http://www.dailykos.com/...
North Dakota: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Alabama: http://www.dailykos.com/...
California, Part one: http://www.dailykos.com/...
California, Part two: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Vermont: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Iowa: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Virginia: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Wyoming: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Pennsylvania: http://www.dailykos.com/...
New Mexico: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Kentucky: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Nebraska: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Friggin’ IDAHO: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Maine: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Wisconsin: http://www.dailykos.com/...