Yes, I'm completely serious. McCain's new ad and campaign strategy is brilliant - evil, of course - but brilliant nonetheless. On the surface they seem juvenile and mock-able, which they are of course, but from a long-term strategy goal for John McCain, this new campaign approach is dangerously effective. No, I'm not being snarky. And you know I'm no concern troll.
My essential thesis is this:
John McCain's entire series of negative, sophmoric, attack ads are part of a coordinated strategy to firm up the Republican base of support by turning them against Barack Obama. And it's working.
Remember the first few weeks of the campaign? McCain tried to make a case for himself, but it wasn't working. He was showing up in front of green screens, nothing was going right for the guy. Then Steve Schmidt and the gang show up and what starts to happen? Attacking Barack Obama all-the-time, non-stop. Almost nothing pro-McCain. As the Times reported today:
After spending much of the summer searching for an effective line of attack against Senator Barack Obama, Senator John McCain is beginning a newly aggressive campaign to define Mr. Obama as arrogant, out of touch and unprepared for the presidency.
On Wednesday alone, the McCain campaign released a new advertisement suggesting — and not in a good way — that Mr. Obama was a celebrity along the lines of Britney Spears and Paris Hilton. Republicans tried to portray Mr. Obama as a candidate who believed the race was all about him, relying on what Democrats said was a completely inaccurate quotation.
The Republican National Committee began an anti-Obama Web site called "Audacity Watch," a play on the title of Mr. Obama’s book "The Audacity of Hope." And, in a concerted volley of television interviews, news releases and e-mail, campaign representatives attacked him on a wide range of issues, including tax policies and energy proposals.
The moves are the McCain campaign’s most full-throttled effort to define Mr. Obama negatively, on its own terms, by creating a narrative intended to turn the public off to an opponent. (emphasis mine)
We laugh and laugh about it, but in the meantime, McCain's poll numbers in national polls have consolidated in the mid-40s.
Battleground state polls are starting to show effect today. Today's Quinnipiac polls show some worrying trends as well (though Obama is still ahead). In Florida, for example:
Independent voters in the state have shifted toward McCain — 46 percent support him compared with 41 percent who prefer Obama. In the same poll taken last month, Obama led among independents, 47 percent to 37 percent.
And in the national bloodstream? The general meme of "presumptuous" or "celebrity" Obama - are they starting to leak out there? Well, take a look at today's Politico:
Perhaps one of the clearest indications emerged Tuesday from the world of late-night comedy, when David Letterman offered his "Top Ten Signs Barack Obama is Overconfident." The examples included Obama proposing to change the name of Oklahoma to "Oklobama," and measuring his head for Mount Rushmore.
And the snickers about Obama’s perceived smugness may have a very real political impact as McCain launched its most forceful effort yet to define him negatively. It released a TV ad Wednesday describing Obama as the "biggest celebrity in the world," comparable to Paris Hilton and Britney Spears, stars who are famous for attitude rather than accomplishments.
The harsher treatment from comedians and columnists – coupled with the shift by McCain from attacking on policy to character issues – underscores the fine line that Obama is walking between confident and cocky. Once at pains to present himself as presidential, Obama now faces criticism for doing it too well.
Now, let's take a step back and see where John McCain was:
- First, we have a candidate who was not exactly beloved in the Republican party.
- Second, he was having a great deal of trouble firming up his base and getting them excited enough to even bother to vote.
- Third, he tried moving towards them on policy, but that's proven to be a bit of a dud as none of them trust or believe him.
So, a major candidate without a strong base of support in his own party, and almost no way to encourage Republicans to vote FOR him.
The solution? Turn them against Barack Obama in a big way, and in doing so, consolidate a passionate base that, with enough stoking of the flames, will hate the liberal black candidate the Democrats have put up and will do whatever they can to vote against him.
He's presumptuous, an empty suit celebrity along the lines of young white girls like Britney Spears and Paris Hilton? Even worse. Man, we have to vote against that guy!
And what starts to happen? A guy like James Dobson, who previously said "no way" to voting for McCain "under any circumstances," now says:
"Neither of the candidates is consistent with my views," Dr. Dobson said, speaking as a private citizen. "But Senator McCain is certainly closer to them than Senator Obama by a wide margin.
And so they jump to some nasty attacks over and over:
Obama would rather lose a war, Obama is a celebrity, Obama is an empty suit, Obama won't visit the troops.
Repeat after me. Get Rush and the gang to repeat it (they are). Over and over again.
And what's starting to happen? Polls are solidifying. The right-wing base is starting to gel. You see "movement among independents" (many of them who were disaffected Republicans apt to lean right anyway, but these attacks are persuading them).
This is part of step one in McCain's strategy: SOLIDIFY THE BASE. That's what he's doing this summer. In the fall you'll start to see him pivot and try to go after the swing voters in hopes of getting 50.1%, but in the meantime, he's been very successful at firming up his base, and these ads are an essential part to that strategy.
WE ALL NEED TO STOP LAUGHING AT MCCAIN AND REALIZING WHAT HE IS DOING IS SMART AND EFFECTIVE.
The NYTimes calls it the "low road?" Perfect! The GOP base hates the NYTimes. Hell, the NYTimes went after Hillary late in the primaries when she was getting nasty (and more effective).
And what's the Obama campaign doing in all this? Taking the "high road."
Axelrod says "This isn't the McCain we expected." Robert Gibbs: "McCain is an honorable man, running an increasingly dishonorable campaign. Barack Obama: "You need to ask him what he's for, not what he's against."
Sigh.
We have a perfect storm for the GOP: an unpopular president, a declining economy, and a war everyone wants to see end - not to mention, an inherently weak candidate. The ONLY way they can win is to tear down Obama enough to firm up their base, then find a way to pivot and make themselves seem appealing to those last few percentage points. And that's exactly what they're doing. And the Obama campaign is letting them.
Get scrappy Obama, no more worrying about "looking Presidential." The high road is for suckers and we thought you knew this. Winning is really quite simple:
"John McCain is Bush's 3rd Term" and "John McCain is Completely Out of Touch and Knows Nothing about the Economy"
Repeat it over and over. Not just Obama, but a coordinated surrogate strategy with really tough talking points. Call his ads "pathetic" and what you'd expect from someone "who has nothing to offer but a 3rd Bush term and knows nothing about the economy."
Frame HIM instead of allowing yourself to be framed. Because don't be fooled Obama folks or Kossacks, that's what's starting to happen.
Victory may still be ours, but a landslide is increasingly unlikely and victory will be tougher to achieve. We have a very small window, a VERY small window to start pushing back aggressively. And accusing McCain of taking the "low road" won't do it. We need to get in the muck and define him.
Offense. It's what's for dinner.
UPDATE: Some people are missing my point and I still see two recurring points:
- That Obama should come up with a new way of "responding." My main point is not to worry about response, but to ATTACK. McCain gets his attack ads played on the media? Where are Obama's?
- I see a lot of "Obama's camp is waiting for the right time." There's no statement that makes me tear out my hair more. There is no magical "right time" to wait for. As has been pointed out a thousand times, Kerry was painted as an effete snobby flip-flopper during the 2004 summer. Waiting until the fall is a losing strategy.
There is only one right time to attack, and that's all the time. The camp that's always on the offensive will win. Right now it's not Obama. Get over your damn selves, get into the mud, and launch attack after attack.
Branding takes time and repetition. Two talking points: McCain is Bush's 3rd Term and McCain Knows Nothing About the Economy should be repeated by every surrogate, every ad, every speech from TODAY until November.
UPDATE 2: Great analysis by Chait of TNR in the L.A. Times. Money quote:
Here's the likely rationale: The public, by a wide margin, wants a Democrat to win the presidency. So all Obama has to do is make himself acceptable and he'll win. Hence the focus on building up his own credentials rather than tearing down McCain.
Perhaps that sounds familiar. Let me refresh your memory: it was the John Kerry campaign strategy in 2004. Four years ago, the conventional wisdom had it that a majority of the voters would reject President Bush, so winning was just a matter of Kerry proving himself as an alternative. People "are looking for some change," one pollster put it at the time, "but the change has to be acceptable. John Kerry has to prove he is acceptable."
So rather than attack Bush, Kerry focused on defining himself. The Democratic National Convention was a model of civility and positive focus. The Republican National Convention, on the other hand, was a full-throated assault on Kerry. I don't need to remind you how it all turned out.
CROSS-POSTED AT STRATEGY '08