Right now on the Intrade prediction markets, Evan Bayh is the current favorite to be Barack Obama's running mate and thus the next Vice President of the United States.
Bayh would add a lot to the ticket. He's a popular Senator and former Governor from a state that Obama would love to pick off this November. He also supported Hillary Clinton in the primary, so his selection would go a long way towards uniting the party and bringing in stray Clinton supporters.
The problem? A story in the New York Times today called "Indiana Senator Offers Risks and Rewards" pointed it out best -- he supported and voted for the Iraq War.
I'm not going to aruge that makes him a terrible person or a terrible Senator, but it does make things very difficult for Obama. He just spent over a year hammering Hillary Clinton's judgment on that vote, how is he supposed to now say that Evan Bayh has the judgment to be President when he cast the same vote that she did?
The other problem? The Governor of Indiana would appoint Bayh's replacement Senator and the Governor is question is a Republican. Getting Obama's progressive agenda passed in the Congress solely depends on having as close to 60 Democratic Senators as possible. Bayh's selection would hand a Senate seat to the Republicans in Indiana.
One man who has surged in the past several days on Intrade is General Wesley Clark, and for good reason.
The good General does not have this same problem that Evan Bayh has. He consistently spoke out against the war in 2002, saying on CNN that an invasion of Iraq would be "at best a diversion, and at worst it risks the possibility of strengthening Al Qaeda and undercutting our coalition at a critical time." (8/30/2002).
It's all about messaging, folks. Wes Clark fits the message. He has stellar foreign policy credentials (like Joe Biden), but has not spent his whole life in Washington DC (unlike Joe Biden). He supported Hillary in the primary (like Evan Bayh), but did not support the Iraq War (unlike Evan Bayh). He's from the South (like Tim Kaine), but does not hold an important elected position that will be filled by a Republican (unlike Tim Kaine).
Clark has the foreign policy cred that Obama needs.
Clark fits the change message because he opposed the war and is not a DC insider.
Clark has the southern roots Obama could use without the possibility of losing an important postition to republicans.
Is there really any question who the best pick is anymore? We've got some AMAZING options for VP, but only one of them is the perfect fit for the ticket.
www.ObamaClark.com