Attack him where he is unprepared, appear where you are not expected. - Sun Tzu
Hence that general is skillful in attack whose opponent does not know what to defend; and he is skillful in defense whose opponent does not know what to attack. - Sun Tzu
Sun Tzu, in the Art of War, laid out these important principles. I have been pondering how Obama can use such tactics to take back the campaign narrative.
My solution: Announce the Vice Presidential nomination on the first night of the Convention.
Follow me after the jump to find out why I think this is a logical action to take for the campaign and some questions for those of you more politically savvy than myself.
Fo
Rationale 1:
What better way to reinforce the change message during a change year?
One of the narratives that has become apparent over the summer is that the Obama campaign is risk-averse. I am not making a judgment, I am just stating a clear fact that has been demonstrated on multiple occasions. However, that does not mean they shouldn't maintain the appearance of being game changers. An announcement during the convention would recreate the idea that Obama is not willing to play the traditional game. It would have great optics.
Rationale 2:
It could potentially force the networks to broadcast larger portions of the convention than originally planned and it would create a tremendous buzz around convention nights other than Obama's Thursday acceptance speech. I think it would dramatically increase the first nights viewership. Those are viewers that the campaign could take advantage of later in the election cycle.
It would also get people to watch Michelle Obama's give a speech, which will be a great way to address a lot of the nonsense the RNC has been spewing due to her great speech making ability.
Here is a cheesy, but possibly effective idea. Continue announcing that you will be the first to hear about the VP by signing up for a text notification. Plaster it all over the bottom of the screen like American Idol voting information the entire first night of the convention. And then, at the end of Michelle Obama speech, make the announcement that a VP has been selected.
Going into commercial, announce the VP over the cell phones. Then come back from commercial with Obama in a surprise appearance, announcing the VP who then makes his/her first appearance The pictures would be priceless, and the media would go into VP overdrive, and not be able to talk about any unity controversy going into Tuesday.
That is driving the message and it would vastly increase the cell phone number database. I know this may not dramatically increase the DB if people know the announcement is coming, but maybe you somehow make it a surprise? Maybe you hold off, but send a text at the beginning of prime time to tune in. I would be interested in your thoughts.
Rationale 3:
As stated above, it would keep something on the media's mind other than any potential controversy around the Clinton nomination or other issues that the media will try to use to create their own narrative.
Enough said....
Rationale 4:
It leaves McCain guessing, which is critical. My sense is the McCain campaign is looking to counterpunch in their selection. If a woman is not chosen, McCain could try choosing a woman. McCain may try to go with a Democrat is Obama goes to the center. Overall, I suspect McCain choice may be reactionary. A late announcement may negate some of this at least from a polling standpoint.
More importantly, RNC and McCain would love to try to hammer the VP candidate and define him/her prior to the convention. This limits some of their ability to create ads and begin their whisper campaigns.
Rationale 5:
It would drive the media crazy. They would not be able to define the dance. And that is reason enough for me to support the idea.
Downsides:
Obviously, this would leave some planning items in a lurch. But I think this can be overcome. Signs and programs can be printed relatively quickly. I suspect many of the on-site signs will be digitial (see Olympic opening ceremony), which will make re-programming relatively easy. There may be other items that I may be missing. That is where i need your help.
What is the lead up used for? Is there any other reason to announce the VP sooner than the convention other than tradition and to try to build excitement?
If building excitement is the only reason, I can see no way better than to create a buzz and excitement than to keep something in the bag. If a Colin Powell endorsement is the potential surprise, I would offer this as an even better option.
I now open the floor for debate.
I will leave you with a few other Sun Tzu gems:
If your opponent (McCain) is of choleric temper, seek to irritate him. Pretend to be weak, that he may grow arrogant.
Hence, though an obstinate fight may be made by a small force (PUMA), in the end it must be captured by the larger force.
Therefore the clever combatant (Obama) imposes his will on the enemy, but does not allow the enemy's will to be imposed on him.
I hope the Obama campaign figures this one out quickly.