This is the first in a three-part series on the state of the race in Indiana. Part I will focus on the presidential race. Part II will be about the congressional races in Indiana. Part III will focus on the importance of local races in Indiana and how they can impact the next decade of elections and the future of our Congressional delegation.
Cross posted from www.blueindiana.net and at www.mydd.com.
Indiana for Obama
Anyone who thinks Barack Obama isn’t competing to win in Indiana is going to be very surprised on Election Day. The Obama campaign recently opened its 20th field office in the state, twenty more than John Kerry or Al Gore had in 2004 and 2000. Of course he has offices in Indianapolis and Gary, but most of them are located in Republican strongholds such as Hamilton County (one of the whitest, richest and most Republican counties in the state). Indiana’s batshit crazy right-wing blogger Advance Indiana (also known for pushing the ‘Obama is gay’ theme, the ‘Obama is a Muslim’ theme, and the ‘Obama forged his birth certificate’ theme) is offended by the Obama presence in our state, and calls it a "smoke and mirrors" campaign.
A visual survey of a majority of the Obama offices around the state reveals that they are nothing more than an assortment of vacant spaces, offices for other candidates, and county party headquarters. In other words, the Obama presence in Indiana is a myth, a campaign of smoke and mirrors designed to give the impression that Indiana is up for grabs and Obama is investing millions to win here.
Of course this claim is false. Barack Obama has visited Indiana 42 times this year. Obama has many paid staffers in the state, including one for each of the townships in Marion County (Indianapolis—that’s 8 paid staffers). Obama has aired almost $2 Million in advertisements since the primary ended, including most recently this one that hits McSame on the economy:
The Obama campaign has a very active presence in the state, and at least one of the "offices" the right-wingers took photos of wasn’t even an Obama office, but a vacant storefront with Obama posters on it left over from the primary. While they obsess over Obama and his "lack of presence" in Indiana, they say nothing about their geriatric, cancer-stricken nominee and his true, honest-to-goodness lack of infrastructure in Indiana.
John McSame has zero campaign offices in Indiana. He has come to the state twice this year, both times for fundraisers. He has not released a single ad in Indiana. He has no paid staff in the state. Although, as Blue Indiana notes, he did recently get a telephone number at the state party headquarters. I guess that’s a step in the right direction.
Despite the disparity in the activity level of the two campaigns, Indiana is still John McCain’s to lose. Our state hasn’t voted for a Democrat since the Lyndon Johnson landslide in 1964 (the only other state to achieve this feat is Virginia). Indiana went for George Bush over John Kerry by 19 points in 2004. But Obama is the first Democrat in a long time to even think about competing here, and showing up counts in the Hoosier state.
The competitive primary in May was a great thing for Democrats in Indiana. Even though he lost the primary to Clinton, Obama has led McSame in most public polls since then. Voters in my state are nervous about the worsening economy, and with 6.3% unemployment and the second straight month of leading unemployment growth in the nation, Indiana is ready for change. The ads attacking McSame’s weakness on economic issues will be effective. Obama should be painting McSame as out of touch. 10 houses. $500 shoes. $100 Million bank account. Thinks "rich" means you earn $5 Million a year. Etc.
The one thing that could almost ensure and Indiana victory for Obama would be the selection of our beloved Senator Evan Bayh. While he has garnered some opposition with liberals (and lets face it, who among the potential VPs hasn’t?), Bayh is a loyal Democrat and an effective surrogate. He had a 79% approval rating when he left office as governor in 1996 and went on to win supermajorities in his two Senate races in 1998 and 2004, when he received more votes than George Bush. There is no question that he would put Obama over the top here. And it would be good news for down-state Democrats as well.