Here is the map for August 19th. Notes are below (click map for bigger version):
Methodology
Numbers:
- Official count: Obama 233, McCain 151, Too Close to Call 154
- Strong states only: Obama 180, McCain 97
- Weak states only: McCain 54, Obama 53
- Count with "leaners": Obama 299, McCain 239
- Weeks until the Democratic Convention: 1 week
- Weeks until the Republican Convention: 2 weeks
- Weeks until Election Day: 11 weeks
All states with change of status:
- Alaska - Weak McCain to Too Close To Call
- Minnesota - Weak Obama to Too Close To Call
All states with new polling this week:
- Alaska - new poll August 6th-7th
- Colorado - new polls August 11th-13th & August 13th
- Florida - new poll August 11th
- Georgia - new poll August 14th
- Kansas - new poll August 11th
- Kentucky - new poll August 9th-11th
- Maine - new poll August 12th
- Minnesota - new polls August 13th & August 13th-14th
- Nevada - new poll August 11th
- New Jersey - new poll August 4th-10th
- New York - new poll August 11th-1th
- North Carolina - new polls August 9th-11th & August 13th
- Ohio - new poll August 12th-14th
- Pennsylvania - new poll August 4th-10th
- Tennessee - new poll August 10th-12th
- Texas - new poll July 18th-30th
- Virginia - new polls August 12th (x2)
- Washington - new poll August 11th-12th
- Wisconsin - new poll August 8th-10th
Also,
see the spreadsheet.
This Week's Notes
While there wasn't much change in the official count, in the deep down darkness of the numbers, this was definitely a win week for McCain.
McCain gained ground nearly everywhere on Obama, gaining enough in Virginia and Nevada to flip those states from lean Obama to lean McCain and very nearly did the same in Colorado (Obama still holds it by 0.1%). The tipping point for McCain to win the presidency is now Ohio, which Obama leads by only 0.4%. In other words, McCain is now thisclose from taking the Electoral College lead from Obama, at least when counting leaners.
The other bad sign for Obama is that states which previously were out of play are now well back into play. Minnesota, which used to be one of the bluest of the blue states now finds itself back in the Too Close To Call category, with Wisconsin heading in that direction as well.
In the end, McCain only has 2 states and 24 Electoral Votes within 1% - Indiana and Virginia - while Obama has 3 states and 32 Electoral Votes - Colorado, Montana, and Ohio. About the only good thing for Obama in the Too Close To Call count is that McCain still has more Electoral Votes within 5% with 88, compared to Obama's 66.
Obama appeared to enjoy a 2 week bump, or at least a lull, where his official numbers didn't change, and the count with leaners bumped him over the 300 mark again for 2 weeks, however, both of those numbers are now heading back down again.
Obama now has his lowest Electoral College total since June 24th, before I made my methodology change, while the count with leaners is close to where it was 2 weeks ago, and back under 300. The only comforting news for Obama may be that McCain hasn't been between 150 and 160 Electoral Votes in his official count ever since the first of July, so while Obama is losing ground, McCain isn't necessarily taking advantage of it in the official count, though both Missouri and North Carolina are both on the cusp of going into McCain's official count.
As for good news for Obama - there isn't a lot. A somewhat dubious poll in Alaska did put that state back into the Too Close to Call category, but Obama still lost that exchange by putting Minnesota there as well. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Jersey, and Washington, while not changing status, all lost ground this week as well.
Historical Graph
Click for bigger version:
Obama continues his tumble downward. The one positive thing on this graph, however, is that Too Close To Call has now overtaken McCain in Electoral Votes, though almost entirely at the expense of Obama.
Polling Wish List
Finally, my polling wish list for this week is:
- Delaware (7th week) - Weak Obama, no poll for 173 days
- Indiana (5th week) - Too Close To Call, no poll for 57 days
- South Dakota (3rd week) - Too Close to Call, no poll for 41 days
- West Virginia (5th week) - Weak McCain, no poll for 78 days
- Wyoming (3rd week) - Strong McCain, no poll for 97 days
On Deck: Maryland, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas
States which haven't had a new poll in over a month:
Arkansas, DC, Delaware, Hawaii, Indiana, Louisiana, Maryland, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Utah, Vermont, West Virginia, Wyoming.
Sister states
These are states for each candidate where the margin in those states are within 1% of each other and are within 3 total electoral votes or 33% of electoral votes of the smaller state of each other.
- Alaska (Obama, 3 EVs, +1.3%) and North Dakota (McCain, 3 EVs, +2.3%)
- New Hampshire (Obama, 4 EVs, +3.3%) and North Dakota (McCain, 3 EVs, +2.3%)
- New Hampshire (Obama, 4 EVs, +3.3%) and Nevada (McCain, 5 EVs, +2.4%)
- New Hampshire (Obama, 4 EVs, +3.3%) and South Dakota (McCain, 3 EVs, +4.2%)
- Michigan (Obama, 17 EVs, +3.8%) and North Carolina (McCain, 15 EVs, +4.6%)
- Delaware (Obama, 3 EVs, +9%) and West Virginia (McCain, 5 EVs, +8.1%)
- Washington (Obama, 11 EVs, +10.2%) and South Carolina (McCain, 8 EVs, +10.9%)
- Washington (Obama, 11 EVs, +11.9%) and South Carolina (McCain, 8 EVs, +10.9%)
- Maine (Obama, 4 EVs, +13.8%) and Wyoming (McCain, 3 EVs, +13.1%)
- Connecticut (Obama, 7 EVs, +14.4%) and Oklahoma (McCain, 7 EVs, +14.8%)
- Connecticut (Obama, 7 EVs, +14.4%) and Kentucky (McCain, 8 EVs, +15.4%)
Electoral-vote.com Map
August 19, 2004: Kerry 301 (+49), Bush 213 (-73), 24 Tied
Changes by election day: Colorado (tied), Florida, Iowa, New Mexico (tied), Ohio, West Virginia, Wisconsin (tied)
Today: Obama 275, McCain 250, 13 tied
Total with same EV shift as 2004: McCain 322, Obama 216, all 13 tied go to McCain
To see the current status, go to the Status of the Electoral College page.
Cross posted at Mad Wombat