You freaked out with today's Zogby poll. According to Pollster.com you shouldn't have.
So, here is what the latest Zogby poll tell us:
This time, it's Zogby's turn to confuse the masses. His latest Reuters/Zogby poll, based on a sample of 1,089 "likely voters" drawn from listed telephone numbers, conducted Aug. 14-16, 2008, shows McCain over Obama by 46% to 41%.
Listed telephone numbers? We know what that means, don't we? And then there is this.
Two days earlier, Zogby reported substantially different results. His online poll (of self-selected people who want to be part of his Internet polling sample) of 3,339 "likely voters," conducted Aug. 12-14, showed Obama with a three-point lead, 43% to 40%.
By Zogby's own calculation of the margins of error of each poll, the difference between the two polls in McCain's support (46% in the later telephone poll vs. 40% in the earlier online poll) is statistically significant. The difference in Obama's support (41% vs. 43% respectively) would not be statistically significant. Still, the 8-point difference in the margin of McCain's lead would be significant - a McCain 5-point lead vs. an Obama 3-point lead in the earlier poll.
So if we were to believe both polls...
If we believe both polls, the period of Aug. 13-14 must have been a real bummer for Obama and an electoral high for McCain. Whatever it was that caused millions of voters to "change" their minds and gravitate toward the Republican candidate in the two-day period, however, escaped my notice. Perhaps others have been more observant.
So there you go. A worthless poll. At best, this has shown that victory will not be easy, and McCain is a tough opponent. Obama has what it takes to win it - he wants to win it. After defeating Clinton and going through his pastor and still being in the lead, do you think you know more than him?
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As an aside, I am in Portugal on holidays - and the local news reported that McCain was ahead in a new poll! That's how you get international coverage - by producing a result so out of the ordinary (outlier) that it becomes news.