We're all a little bit edgy since McCain started climbing in the polls and bloggers here and elsewhere have been fishing around for an explanation--things like, "Obama's too wimpy," or, "He shouldn't have gone bodysurfing," or "He threw his base under the bus." I have a completely different explanation: McCain's climb in the polls was inevitable and would have happened no matter what Obama did. If you like this faintly mavericky challenge to Left Blogistan's conventional wisdom, read on.
We're going into the time when voters are starting to pay attention and make their decisions, and the first to make those decisions are republican voters who don't like McCain but are now resigning themselves to the fact that if they don't vote for him, Obama is going to be president. I know we all hoped that the religious right would stay home on election day, but it wasn't going to happen--they're just as capable of holding their noses and voting as progressives are.
I just spent half an hour over at Pollster.com trying to figure out which states caused Obama to drop in the national poll numbers. (I want to re-emphasize what Kos keeps saying over and over again--national polls are worthless in a close race, because the electoral college decides the election.) Now, here's the weird thing--in most of the state races, Obama is actually gaining votes, not losing them, while McCain is also gaining votes, often in the states where Obama is gaining. This is a sign that the undecideds are starting to make their choices, but there are still plenty of undecideds still out there--enough to flip these states for Obama if the race is still close.
However, in a few states, McCain has peeled off a few percentage points of Obama's voters--enough to affect the national poll numbers. Does this matter? Probably not, because Obama's slight drop has only happened in states that (1) are unlikely to go red in the election, or (2) states so solid red that it doesn't matter whether he's dropped or not. In Washington he's lost 2% in the past month but still leads by 10%. In Minnesota he lost 1% in the past month but still leads by 7%. In Illinois he's lost a whopping 7% (which has to be affecting the national poll numbers) but still leads by a whopping 15%. In Utah Obama has dropped like a rock, but there's no way he was going to win Utah.
Now for the good news: take a look at states where the two candidates are within the margin for error of each other, meaning they're tied. These are Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, and New Hampshire. In Ohio, Obama was losing until a month ago, but has now pulled ahead of McCain. In Florida, McCain has stayed flat while Obama is climbing steadily and has almost reached him. Now look at Virginia and McCain's steady decline, Obama's steady climb, and that nice little X where they crossed a few weeks ago. Now go to Colorado, which is one we've really been fretting over. Yes, McCain has climbed, but so has Obama. Same goes for New Hampshire, which (much to my dismay) went from leans blue to leans red between yesterday and today. If Obama were losing votes in any state so close that it could tip the election, I'd be a lot more worried. And the good news for us is that ground game DOES matter in tied states--especially in tied states with large numbers of minority and young voters that Obama can bring to the polls for the first time.
The Obama campaign is working hard in other states where he's trailing but within 10%--Indiana, Georgia, North Carolina, and Missouri (which have lots of electoral votes up for grabs) and also Nevada, Montana, and North Dakota (which have very few EVs but could help in a "lose OH and FL but win VA and CO" scenario). Since Obama will have the money advantage after McCain shifts to public funding post-primary, trying to flip these states is definitely worth trying for. In IN, GA, NC, MO, NV and MT he's climbing, while only in ND has he lost voters (and not many). But in these states McCain has climbed in tandem with Obama as the republican base sighs and resigns itself to voting for Mr. McMaverick.
Finally, in my home state of Michigan, Obama has been pulling ahead of McCain steadily for weeks. Considering that Obama couldn't even campaign here until early summer because of the early primary debacle, he's doing fine. Romney as VP pick might change that equation, but knowing the mood of voters here in our economically depressed state, I believe that McCain's VP choice won't change things enough to flip it red.
So to my fellow worried dems on DailyKos--go ahead and worry, but worry rationally! This race has tightened up but in a way that was entirely predictable. Obama has lost voters in only four states and that loss isn't going to change which way those states flip in the electoral college. After the convention, the focus is going to shift from a 50-state strategy to intensive (and aggressive) campaigning in the states that are close. Watch Obama go for the jugular on McCain on economic issues like not remembering how many houses he owns, and watch for resulting changes in state poll numbers in states within 10%.
And please tell me WTF happened in Illinois.