To expand upon a comment I made in a thread today, this is really the central issue I've been worrying about for the entire summer. I'd like to know what people think of how the Obama campaign is approaching this election, and where they hope it's going to get them come January. I know there's a million diaries about the merits of this strategy vs. that strategy, but I'd like to get to something I rarely hear discussed, something that I hope will help me understand those who disagree with myself and others who think there's an urgent need to go on the offensive in a more forceful way. I want to know - If we're running a straight, 'honorable' campaign, and the idea is to take the 'high road' all the way, no matter how much mud to opposition slings; What's the upside if we win?
Update:(Yes, I've seen the Rec List - Instant Gratification! Now let's keep it up!)
Think about it. Say we manage, despite all the masterful GOP slime merchants' best efforts, to win this election on all fronts. Dems pick up 20-30 House seats, 5-7 Senate seats, and the Presidency, plus big gains on State and Local levels. And we do it all without Obama resorting to the dirty tactics we readily acknowledge the Republicans are using now, and will continue using. I think you can make a couple assumptions about such a win; firstly, that the popular vote margin in the Presidential election will not be as wide as it would be if the Democrats go on the offensive. If we're already assuming we've won the election, and if current numbers are showing that the recent McCain attacks haven't impacted his favorables (in fact, they seem to have mobilized his base and increased his numbers to a certain extent,) we can infer that the public would be at least somewhat forgiving to Obama for attacking, particularly since we have the facts on our side, and could frame such a strategy as a response to GOP smears. Also, some Democrats would love to see a more aggressive strategy from Obama, and it would probably get people excited in a similar way to what's been going on with the Republicans since the 'Celebrity' ads started. Therefore, at best it's going to mean more votes for Obama, and at worst, anyone you alienate will be replaced by someone who changes or makes up their mind.
Anyway, with a 'Positive' campaign, I assume a smaller margin of victory. I'm open to being disproved on this position, but I leave that to the reader. Now, George Bush claimed a 'Mandate' after the last election, even with a tiny fraction of a majority. But we all know that was BS, and Obama probably wouldn't make such a claim if he won by less than 2-3%, to avoid comparisons to GW. But a real mandate is unquestionably better.
The second issue, and the one that really bothers me, is: What about the GOP? By that I mean - What is the reaction going to be from the Republican lawmakers that remain after a Democratic win? Is there any rational reason to believe that they will react more favorably to a 'Positive' Democratic win than a 'Negative' one? Is the goal of running a campaign that attempts to transcend mudslinging to encourage a more bipartisan atmosphere for the incoming Administration? If so, what evidence is there that Republicans beaten 'fairly' or 'positively' are going to be any more likely to cooperate with Democrats? In fact, aren't the Republicans we beat by definition out of the picture anyway? Seriously, can anyone explain this reasoning to me? Because it's an important point, if you're talking about how the campaign is being run at a National level, especially if you consider what's likely to happen at State and Local levels in the next few months.
Tired of local political ads yet? Are you noticing a 'positive' tone to your Congressional races? What about State Senate and Congress races? Of course not. The smaller the office, the greater the stakes, as they say. These contests are perennially catfights of the highest order, and with media coverage that's orders of magnitude smaller than the Presidential election, they can afford to get dirtier and dirtier the further downticket they are.
What does all this mean? To me, it means that even if we win big in November by taking the 'high road' in the Presidential election, Senate seats are going to be won or defended a little further in the 'low road' direction, Congress even more so, and on it goes. It's politics as usual. Some races may be exceptions, but this is mostly how it works. Dems can't all just ride Obama's coattails to victory, they've got constituencies of their own to please, appease, and impress. They're going to win any way they can, and if that means responding forcefully to GOP attacks, or coming up with a few attacks of their own, you better believe they're going to do it. Any moral high ground you gain in the National Election is likely to be lost by remaining Republican lawmakers taking State and Local losses personally.
So where does that put us in January? Assuming we win, the Republican brand will have suffered a great blow. This is one upside I see of staying 'Positive;' if we beat them honorably, the public will be even more impressed, and even more disenchanted with Republicans in general. But the public has a short memory. And the way you keep them happy is by passing legislation that makes their lives better in an immediate way. The ultimate goal, though it's easy to lose sight of amidst the navel-gazing and infighting that's accompanied this election (and I say that lovingly, acknowledging that it's what I'm doing right now,) is to pass those laws. Health care. Ending the war. Protecting those in need. All that good stuff we dream of. And how does all that stuff get accomplished? It gets done by Senators, Congresswomen, and local lawmakers. And that's my second problem, the major concern I have.
I worry about all the Republicans whose jobs are safe, the ones who we have to deal with for at least 2 more years. Think of how infuriatingly obstructionist the GOP has been since 2006. Granted, they've had the advantage of a President ready with a Veto pen, but the point remains. These people still have their own agenda, and they're going to fight like hell for it. There are, as I see it, two possible mindsets the remaining GOP'ers can enter into an Obama Administration with. The first, which in my opinion is more likely if they lose to a 'Positive' campaign, is basically the status quo. They are insulted at the Democratic win, and are going to fight tooth and nail to prevent our agenda from being furthered. They are egotistical enough to think that they represent the 'will of the people' They proceed as usual, thinking; "The Democrats won, but if we keep them from doing anything useful, maybe our jobs will be safe and we can take back some seats in 2010 and 2012. After all, they won't fight back. Everyone is hyped up for 'change' and they expect it sooner rather than later." They will continue stupid stunts to distract the public like their Oil Slumber Party, and just generally cause trouble and prevent progress. They will do this knowing that the public has a short attention span, and two years from now, after holding up (to whatever degree they are able) all the good things Democrats will have tried, they will attack us for having done nothing, assuming that we will not fight back. It's happening now, think about all the winger nonsense you hear lately about "What has the Democrat majority done since 2006?" It's a reality we have to face, and at the moment, we don't have a bargaining chip. Looking forward, we need leverage against the GOP, at least until we pick up 60 Senate seats.
Where can that leverage come from? This brings me to my point, I guess. I know much of what I've written above is speculation, my opinion and nothing more, but it's what I feel and the most logical outcome I can see from the current situation. It is my belief that a much more aggressive strategy from the Obama campaign will have the greatest long-term benefit. My reasoning has to do with the second possible mindset the GOP could have come January. That mindset is fear and respect.
Not in an Orwellian way, mind you, but the healthy, self preserving fear that comes with having had your ass handed to you by someone you know is a superior opponent. I want the GOP cowed by this election, and ready to cooperate with an administration that, by all indications I've seen, is ready to cooperate with them, at least to an extent. They need to be made to understand that America is ready for a new direction, and if they're not onboard, they can find a new line of work. (I personally hope they all get voted out eventually anyway, but I want them to fall in line in the meantime.) I want Republicans running away from Neoconservatisim like they were on fire. And before you chalk this up to my own grandiose delusions, remember that this attitude, by and large, was exactly that of Democratic lawmakers during much of the buildup to the current clusterfuck we find ourselves in. They folded time and time again, and much of it was in the interest of self-preservation. They wanted to keep their jobs. No party, no ideology is perfect. All I'm saying is that it happened to our detriment in '94, and it can be reversed to our benefit and that of our country in '08. But they have to know we're serious, and they have to understand that if they keep up their old tricks, we'll crush them. There have to be some claws behind that threat, and now is the time to make an example of the people who have screwed up our country so badly, so that anyone thinking of continuing their ideology will understand that the American public will not accept it any more. There have to be consequences. And they must be brought to bear on the people who want to continue selling the citizens of the United States of America the same policies that have so completely failed us in the last 8 years. And it needs to be done while the affronts to our society committed by the Bush Administration are fresh in the public consciousness.
So, it remains to be seen what direction the campaign will move in from here on out. And I am not of the opinion that staying above the mudslinging is a surefire recipe for a loss in November. But I think it's important to consider what position our party will be in after the election. What is the benefit of staying the course, keeping positive, and fearing a backlash that might not exist? Does it outweigh the benefits of pointing out the failings of the GOP, and the reasons John McCain is not fit to lead this country through what will certainly be a critical period of our history? What, as I asked before, is the upside, now and after election day?
I wrote this diary because I genuinely want to know what people think. What is the strategic benefit in the long and short term of keeping the gloves on? Does it outweigh the cost of taking them off? Is the Obama campaign doing the right thing?
A final thought: I'm publishing this diary for all of you waiting for the Veep announcement, since, if I click 'publish' on this thing I took a couple hours to write, the next sound I hear will be Barry texting me, followed by 200 "Breaking" diaries that will push this out of existence. I hope you're happy! :)