As good Democrats, we should focus on our Convention in Denver. But at the same time, Democrats, Independents, and Republicans from Texas to Florida need to keep a weather eye on Hurricane Gustav.
At 11 a.m. EDT yesterday, Gustav was still an unnamed tropical depression. As of 5 a.m. this morning, it is now a Category 1 hurricane, with winds near 85 mph. The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Gustav will become a Category 2 hurricane before it crosses Haiti's southwestern peninsula.
Haiti's deforested countryside can ill endure the torrential rains that Gustav will bring. Even worse is what Gustav could do after it leaves Haiti.
UPDATE: 8am public advisory from Nat'l Hurricane Ctr. puts winds at 90mph, almost cat 2 . . .
UPDATE 2: Five computer model runs at 8am show Gustav heading for Louisiana or Texas . . .
The big news this morning is that Gustav may not traverse the length of Cuba over land. Instead, computer models now show Gustav remaining south of Cuba, and entering the Gulf of Mexico between the Yucatan Peninsula and the Cuba's western tip. This means that Gustav will have a lot of time over very warm water. It will intensify. The question is, how much.
To quote the National Hurricane Center:
The official intensity forecast is increased and now calls for Gustav to be a major hurricane in the Northwest Caribbean Sea. It is worth noting that both the GFDL/HWRF forecast[s] show an even stronger hurricane. Most indications are that Gustav will be an extremely dangerous hurricane in the Northwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days.
I read this to mean that Gustav will be at Category 3 or higher before it enters the Gulf of Mexico.
Over at Weather Underground, meteorologist blogger Dr. Jeff Masters explains why Gustav could strengthen dramatically as it leaves the Caribbean and enters the Gulf:
Once Gustav reaches central or western Cuba, it will be underneath an upper-level anticyclone. These upper atmosphere high pressure systems can greatly intensify a tropical storm, since the clockwise flow of air at the top of the storm acts to efficiently vent away air pulled aloft by the storm's heavy thunderstorms. With high oceanic heat content also present in the waters off western Cuba, the potential for rapid intensification exists should the center stay more than 50 miles from the Cuban coast.
If memory serves, an upper-level anticyclone was key to Katrina's rapid strengthening as well.
Now, I am not a weather doctor. I'm just passing on what I'm reading. And as we all know, hurricanes' intensity and track can be hard to predict.
But if you live on or near the Gulf Coast, please keep an eye on this storm over the next few days.