Two days ago I posited the question - how big do you think the bounce is going to be?
I guessed +10, and out of 212 votes, the consensus guess was +4 to +6
I think things have changed yet again in this race yet again ,so I'm revising to a +12 bounce
Here's what I thought was in our favor before, with updates:
==The Delayed Biden Effect==
+ 2
I'm betting that we saw a non-bounce (or negative bounce) out of the Biden announcement for a couple reasons. 1) I think people were really expecting a surprise - Clinton, Clark, Powell, Hagel, Gore - something other than a name that was already out there. I think this cause a bunch of folks to shrug at Biden as a non-story.
But as it has sunk in--and as the Biden story has gotten out there--I think more and more people are warming to him.
His first wife and daughter killed in a car wreck? I had no idea. Overcame a stutter? I had no idea. Architect of the Violence Against Women act? I had no idea. This is an effing awesome guy, who connects well with people, and has a charming lovely family. If I didn't know this stuff, I can only imagine what other people are going to think as they find out.
In all - it took some intro, but I think that now that his story and creds are getting out, people will like him on the ticket, and we'll get a delayed bump.
==The United Clintons==
+ 3
President Clinton said tonight that Hillary told us on night two that "She'd do everything in her power to elect Barack Obama." And then spiked that setup with "That makes two of us!" And the house erupted.
The Clinton's have truly stepped up and shown a united front for Obama. Hillary's speech was phenomenal. A home run. Bill's was a solid triple. With batting like that, we've got a great lineup out on the stump.
I honestly believe they know that their future in the party rests with getting Obama elected. I suddenly saw tonight a Secretary of State Bill Clinton, and a Senate Majority Leader Hillary Clinton working hand in hand with President Obama.
==Obama at Mile-High Stadium==
+ 3
I don't know about you, but I'm dying to see what Obama speaking in front of 70,000 people at Mile-High tomorrow night looks like. I suspect it will make great political theatre, and between whatever tear-inducing eloquence he comes up with, and the pics of the Obamas and Bidens on that stage in front of all those people, the pics are going to be amazing.
This was pre-speech: I think that now that the speech is history--and History--I think +3 is the low end of what we'll see.
==Democrats United Storyline==
+ 1
The rollcall today helped put this to bed - Clinton released her delegates, and you could see in the state totals that Clinton delegates were actually crossing over to vote for Obama. The interruption for acclimation was awesome. Planned and plotted, perhaps, but really great to watch. The headlines tonight are proving it - the Democrats "splintered" meme is being put to bed, and the "Democrats United" theme is going to get us a point or two in the polls.
==Gustav, Katrinaversary, Other==
+1
The fact that there is a Tropical Storm--Gustav--projected to hit NOLA as a Cat 2 storm on the exact anniversary of Katrina, and a day before the RNC kicks off, is bound to push that memory of Republican failure back into the public awareness. I think this story will get us a point in polling.
Gustav is even more on target for NOLA and the oil platforms of the LA/TX border shore. This is a huge story, and hitting so close to the Katrina anniversary and the idea that the Rs might postpone the RNC is a big deal. I'm upping this to +2.
NEW: The Palin Choice
+1
I think McCain biffed on his choice of Palin, and I think that in two days the buzz of this choice will have mellowed into a general disgruntlement that she is not ready to be VP or Pres. This will give us another point in our bump.
CONCLUSION
Between all these factors, I think that we'll be coming out of tomorrow night and going into the weekend with a +10 [ed: now +12 for me] bounce in polling. It might not last long--the RNC is the next week after all, and they'll get some bounce too--but I think this whole week has bumped this race into a new level.
We'll be heading strong, with a solid lead, into the final 60 days of this race.
The Gallup Daily and Rassmussen are starting to show this. Some great diaries last night retro-calc'ed what the dailies must be to affect the 3 day rolling like they are. This could be amazing!