These last 24 hours may really be some of the best I'll ever live through in politics -- at least until the 24 hours of election day this November.
And why?
-- Obama's Speech: I was nervous as we drew closer to the time of the speech. How could he possibly live up to the expectations and the hype? The pressure on Senator Obama last night -- much of it self imposed -- couldn't be greater. The speech itself had to address the questions of the American people, lay out specific policies, and at the same time inspire -- and also had to close the deal with millions of disappointed Clinton supporters. One man surrounded by tens of thousands of people hanging on his every word and millions viewing every moment. So the speech didn't have to just address all those issues, but be delivered convincingly. The delivery itself had to tell the story of Senator Obama: I can handle the pressure. I'm comfortable with this, because I know who I am and what I'm saying is what I believe.
And of course, he delivered brilliantly on all counts. This is a remarkable leader who people will follow, and who will take us as a country where we need to go. I think many were waiting to see it (which explains the enormous 38 million viewers, not even counting CSPAN and PBS.) And now I think for many more, the decision has been made.
And if that were not enough, John McCain has lain down a gift of his own -- by nominating Sara Palin, the untested governor from Alaska.
I think it's important that we not allow the Palin nomination to distract us from John McCain. She is not, in herself, the problem -- we must focus on what her nomination says about McCain's judgment, rather than Palin. So what does Palin's nomination tell us about McCain?
- McCain is a cynical politician. McCain's maverick image, carefully cultivated over years in Washington, is just an act. McCain's pick can only have been motivated by the short term question of how to put enough states in play that he could be competetive in the election. Can anyone claim that 19 months as governor of a small (in population) state is sufficient preparation for the most important job on earth?
- McCain has poor judgment. The Palin choice is not working. As Angry Mouse's strong Post argues, few Clinton supporters are going to support McCain/Palin because Governor Palin is a woman. There may well be a backlash as people recognize the cynicism with which this decision was made. It is an insult.
- McCain cannot foresee the likely consequences of his actions. While I'm sure that Governor Palin is a smart, energetic woman and may have some gubernatorial successes, there is a predictability and inevitability to what will happen with this nomination.
McCain appeared to be assuming that we would not dare to question her credentials, since in McCain's view her credentials are just as good or better than Senator Obama's. But the governor of Alaska represents only about 100,000 more people than the Mayor of Des Moines. And Mayor of Des Moines is actually the harder job, because unlike Alaska, the Mayor of Des Moines has to balance a budget without relying on abundant oil revenue pouring into the coffers allowing the only question to be how much money should we send out to the population this year. And Obama is not where he is because some elderly politician picked him -- he was chosen by the people of the Democratic party from sea to sea. He's tested and proven.
I thought Palin was OK in her first appearance, and she seemed comfortable using a TelePrompTer. But the learning curve between here and election day is steep.
Not only does Palin need to learn enough about federal policy and McCain's positions that she doesn't create a gap or contradiction or gaffe, in the face of a determined and focused national press corps whose entire professional life is devoted to creating these gotcha moments; she also needs to be aware of any offhand remark that could be taken out of context. She needs to be on guard that some acquaintance of hers -- a relative or friend with a controversial past -- could pop up at any moment, and drag their ticket off message for a day, or a week, or a month. And she can't afford to appear scripted or managed by campaign staff. This is a tricky balancing act for career professional politicians in Washington; can she manage it, flawlessly, for months?
And McCain's lack of foresight extends also to his failure to understand the outrage of supporters of Mittens and Pawlenty. Obama did not consider Clinton for VP, and made no pretense that he was going to do so. His goal, after all, was to find a partner who he could govern with, and there was too much animosity, bad blood and distrust between the Obama and Clinton camp by campaign's end for that to happen. But unlike McCain, Obama did not string along her supporters -- the signals were clear that she was not in the running.
Romney and Pawlenty were rumored to be finalists, and they and their funders and supporters are wondering today what this little known, untested governor from state with a tiny population brings to the ticket that they didn't? Is this simply "reverse discrimination," so often decried by the Republican base? Were the VP nominees kept busy with a surrogate schedule and then cast aside?
I think that between these factors, the choice will end up costing McCain votes, and there's no way he could change the new ticket now without seeming vacillating. In the long run, the vice presidential choice rarely matters much, with Lyndon Johnson in 1960 the last who arguably played a make-or-break roll in a presidential election -- but what it says about McCain's cynicism, judgment and lack of foresight just confirms that he cannot be allowed to become President.