Hang onto your hats Dems, this press release from the Smith/Newhouse Analytical Review Kiosk anticipates that Republicans are going to clean up in Minnesota. It's looking pretty bad right now, as the think tank says they should come out of this convention with a lead over Obama unless something has gone horribly, horribly awry.
John McCain's Sarah Palin VP pick was a wild and risky gamble by the man who would be president of the United States that, much like Mel Gibson's last dramatic bet in the Hollywood film "Maverick", we expect will pay off for him next week at the Republican convention. If it has truly rallied the GOP base he should easily surpass the stunning 40 million viewers who tuned in to see Barack Obama accept the Democratic nomination at his own acceptance speech. We anticipate that McCain's maverick style, his effervescent energy and charm will reinvigorate the GOP and gain accolades from across the aisle. In his speech, the expectation is that John McCain will stick to the basic policy issues of our time: Vietnam, the U.S.S.R, and the rising risks to the economy due to the OPEC embargo.
In the first matter, we expect him as is his custom to downplay his former status as a prisoner of war, with a scant 40 references or so in an eighty minute speech. In the second, we expect he will take a strong, hawkish stance and pre-emptively declare war on Kruschev and the communists using his authority as the presumptive GOP nominee. We anticipate that McCain will be gently reminded by Senator Joseph Lieberman that the USSR no longer exists, Vladimir Putin is the Russian leader, and that McCain does not, in fact, have authority to declare war yet, but that he would fully support him when he does. In the third matter, we expect McCain to stare blankly for a moment and then remind the audience that for five years he didn't have a car, and that he'd have to ask his staff before he could tell them how many he had now.
Joe Lieberman will speak for and to all Democrats in endorsing McCain, the Connecticut senator will betray no disappointment at being left off the ticket, but instead will appear obliviously blissful for the opportunity to be used as a Republican tool speak in front of his friends.
A journalism major herself, Sarah Palin comes from the media elite establishment and knows how how to use cameras to her political advantage. Her acceptance speech prior to McCain's should show a confident and poised woman with the gravitas and political savvy needed to guide a deeply divided and partisan Senate. We expect she will show why McCain has chosen her to become one of his most trusted advisers in matters of national security after just two brief meetings. Because she is an energy expert, we expect she will also be able to fully expound and fill us in on the details of McCain's energy policy, and how it differs from or improves on the naivete of the Bush "Drill Here, Drill Now" doctrine.
While we feel that Palin's celebrity will do well with evangelical fanatics, we feel that fiscal conservatives might need reassurance that her vast expansion of the Alaskan budget in nearly every department except construction, and her costly mishandling of a sports complex project as mayor of the world class metropolis of Wasilla resulting in increased taxes were not indicative of executive failure on her part, but instead were part of some underhanded left wing conspiracy. Failing this, we anticipate she will win over conservatives of all stripes by smiling, shrugging and saying "shucks" a lot.
Add this to speeches by both President Bush (who will also regain Republicans trust by smiling, shrugging, and saying "shucks" a lot) and Vice-President Cheney, who will pass the torch of their legacy on to McCain/Palin, we expect the divided and factional Republican party to coalesce around the top ticket. For these reasons a post convention bounce in the polls in the 8 to 10 percent range seems likely. And the only reason it seems low to Obama's anticipated bounce is because Obama had the virtue of a convention without a hurricane, Minnesota, Bush or excuses. Less than this would show a Republican party in disarray, one that hasn't bought into Palin's experience and will tacitly endorse the theme that John McCain is out of touch with the problems of real, 21st century Americans.
Eldon Smith, S/NARK
Yep, I'm quaking in my boots.
Behind the snark, though, is a real message that we can't let them lower the bar. If they say Palin is an energy expert, then we should expect an expert presentation on energy policy. If she is a real fiscal conservative, then we should expect her to explain clearly how she qualifies beyond canceling a bridge that was a political no-brainer. McCain can no longer be allowed to be portrayed as running to victory when he hasn't once led after both parties nominees were made clear. While many in the media are partisan hacks, many more pander to how they think typical Americans are responding, the right wing talking points take over because too often we fall into the trap of responding to them on their terms. They want Palin to be seen as neophyte on our side right now and a somehow secretly qualified expert on theirs, don't let them on either count. Play up her media expertise, it doesn't seem bitter or petty, it raises expectations on her she probably won't meet, and nobody on either side trusts the media. Stick to the out of touch, more of the same messaging on McCain. It's that simple.