Sarah Palin, the gift that keeps on giving, may've handed 27 EVs to Team Obama (TO). At the very least, she has made it much harder for Team McCain (TM) in a must-have state.
The importance of FL to TM can't be overstated. Calvin Coolidge was the last Gooper to win w/o being credited w/ carrying FL. As I addressed in detail a month ago, odds are heavily against McCain getting to 270 w/o FL.
A month ago, using projections from Nate Silver, McCain was down to 204 EVs w/o FL. Today, Nate projects TM at 207 EVs w/o our state. Even w/ VA (which Nate currently gives to Obama), TM would be at 200 EVs w/o FL. They'd still be 9 EVs short even if they picked up PA (a fairly solid TO state) and OH while losing FL.
Given the criticality of FL, one would presume that Gov. Crist would be an ace in the hole here for McCain. Crist was the key McCain supporter in the FL primary, and he was long rumored to be on McCain's VP short list. Crist, however, is not going to the RNC. He apparently isn't even addressing the delegates via video link.
Yes, the RNC is occurring during what appears to be the peak week of hurricane season. Last time I checked, however, Crist hasn't sold his state plane on Ebay. Since Fay has long since passed, and since the center of Hanna isn't projected to make landfall before the RNC ends, one would think that a strong McCain supporter from a key state might find the time to make a quick trip to and from the Twin Cities. He certainly could at least speak via video.
Even assuming Crist is still an enthusiastic TM member, Palin helps TO even more w/ a critical voting bloc. No Dem can win statewide w/o piling up landslide margins in the predominantly Jewish condo belt that runs from the southern half of Palm Beach County through Broward into the northern portion of Miami-Dade. It was a bloc that was considered to be a potential problem area for TO. Thanks to Palin, those worries should now largely be over.
As was noted here on Saturday, Palin's open support of Pat Buchanan will not play well in the condo belt. The recent disclosure of comments from her pastor will play even more poorly:
Much of his support for the current administration has come in the realm of foreign affairs. Kalnins has preached that the 9/11 attacks and the invasion of Iraq were part of a "world war" over the Christian faith, one in which Jesus Christ had called upon believers to be willing to sacrifice their lives.
What you see in a terrorist -- that's called the invisible enemy. There has always been an invisible enemy. What you see in Iraq, basically, is a manifestation of what's going on in this unseen world called the spirit world. ... We need to think like Jesus thinks. We are in a time and a season of war, and we need to think like that. We need to develop that instinct. We need to develop as believers the instinct that we are at war, and that war is contending for your faith. ... Jesus called us to die. You're worried about getting hurt? He's called us to die. Listen, you know we can't even follow him unless you are willing to give up your life. ... I believe that Jesus himself operated from that position of war mode. Everyone say "war mode." Now you say, wait a minute Ed, he's like the good shepherd, he's loving all the time and he's kind all the time. Oh yes he is -- but I also believe that he had a part of his thoughts that knew that he was in a war.
As a lifelong Cafeteria Catholic, these comments send a shiver down my spine. They turn Palin's candidacy from an entertaining freak show to something genuinely scary. These comments are a disgusting perversion of the Gospel message that utterly boggle the mind. They should even be more threatening to those of the Jewish faith.
I'm sure that JoeMentum (JM) will be sent into the condo belt to shill for his old ally. I will be curious to see how he will address Palin's beliefs if he is asked about them. I know that JM has steadily sold what was left of his political soul over the past 2 years, but shilling for a ticket that has someone like Palin on it will probably be tough for even him to swallow.
Rep. Wexler should be a very happy man this week. His job as the chief representative of TO in the condo belt has now gotten much easier. Whatever reservations his constituents may have had about Obama should pale in comparison to the dread that they should feel about the prospect of Palin as VP. Once that base is nailed down, efforts can be intensified to break the crumbling GOP monolith in the Cuban Exile Community, and the I-4 corridor can be vigorously pursued.
Nate's model currently gives McCain a 2 pt (49.8-47.8) advantage here. That margin should be easily capable of erasure given the factors I've cited above and given the strength of the Obama field operation. If Obama does win FL, he will likely get >300 EVs nationwide.
If that blessed event occurs, we may have the Palin choice to thank for it.