In all of the talk of the Sarah Palin pick and her effect on the race, I think people may be missing the fundamental dynamic that has always defined and will ultimately decide this race: if the Democrats can convince people that President John McCain will be equal to four more years of George Bush, then Barack Obama will win. Indeed, it is his only chance. If, on the other hand, John McCain can convince voters that he will govern in a significantly different way than the current incumbent, then we might as well start buying our Schweitzer '12 bumper stickers now. Because ultimately, a young black man from the city named Barack Hussein Obama only ever had a chance of winning by running against our country's worst president, George W. Bush. But in a race with two reformers trying to clean up Washington, America is not going to take a flyer on the young black guy with an Arabic name; in that case, they'd be more than willing to pull the lever for the white war hero. That is and has always been the underlying dynamic of the race, and it will be until election day.
Unfortunately for us, John McCain went a long way in the last week in convincing voters that he is not like George Bush. First was the Palin pick. The significance there is not so much her identity as a moose-hunting hockey mom; instead, by putting a cipher like Palin on the ticket, McCain was able to reinforce his newly minted persona as a cannonball coming in to wreak havoc on corrupt Washington - regardless of whether or not that is actually going to be the case, people now see McCain differently than they saw him two weeks ago. Unlike us, they don't see the pick as reckless and rash - they see it as proof that he is serious about grabbing someone from completely outside the system to change the system. THAT is the dangerous narrative of the Palin pick that must, at all costs, be killed.
Then came McCain's speech, in which he stated in not so subtle terms that the fault of the failure in Washington rests with the Republican Party, and that it is his intent to ride into the White House on a white steed with sword held high and restore dignity and honor to our nation's executive branch, and to restore honor and dignity to his own party, which has fallen prey to sin and gluttony and needs a savior - needs, above all, John McCain. Everybody loves a story of redemption, and John McCain is offering it, if only the voters of America give him the chance.
So forget about Palin. Palin exists only to reinforce this new narrative in which John McCain is a maverick who is intent on reforming Washington. It's not Sarah Palin who is giving John McCain his bump in the polls, it is John McCain. He has made his pitch and it is: "I am so, so, so not like that guy, George Bush."
The way to win this race for Obama has not changed from day one. Make John McCain own the failures of George Bush. He's spent the last couple of weeks trying his damnedest to wriggle out of the headlock that his own extremely unpopular party has put him in, and he's doing a good job of it so far. The goal now for Obama, Biden, and Dem surrogates on the trail and on TV is to make a convincing case to the American people that John McCain will not change Washington. He is not a reformer. He is, in fact, just like George Bush. Maybe worse than Bush. Certainly not better than Bush. And if he tells you that he's different? Well, he is lying to you. He thinks you're stupid. Palin? Palin is a gimmick. A sideshow. Just proves that he's like George Bush, makes decisions from his gut. Don't buy it. He's trying to hustle you, don't let him. We need to pin him down.
Sadly, the very real and very visceral pull of tribalism, or race - the appeal of compelling personal narratives and ethnic and cultural identity are all very strong factors dictating the direction of this election. The only thing stronger than all of that is the sad state of affairs that this administration has left this country. Everybody in the country knows it. They know that Bush has been an awful President, and if it means voting for the weird black guy, then so be it, Americans will do that because they are ready to kick Bush out.
If McCain can skirt the responsibility of owning Bush's mistakes, he will win purely on identity and comfort. On the other hand, if the millstone that is Bush can be made to hang from his neck, then the unlikely candidate named Barack Hussein Obama has a pretty decent shot of being our next President.