The new Rasmussen state polls are out and here we go
[Note - if you don't like polls or think they're worthless, please feel free to back your way out of this diary.]
Link when it's provided - this is off the tv report (link is now provided):
Ohio
McCain 51
OBama 44
Virginia
McCain 49
Obama 47
Florida
McCain 48
Obama 48
Colorado
Obama 49
McCain 46
Pennsylvania
Obama - 47
McCain - 45
Rasmussen Reports conducted five state telephone surveys in partnership with Fox News Channel on September 7, 2008. The surveys were conducted in Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. A total of 500 Likely Voters were interviewed in each state using the Rasmussen Reports automated telephone survey methodology.
The margin of sampling error for the full sample in each state poll is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Caution should be used in interpreting subsets of the data as such results will have an even larger margin of sampling error. It is anticipated that larger sample sizes will be used later in the election season which will allow for a more detailed examination of demographic distinctions.
Also out today:
SUSA, Virginia conducted September 5th-7th, 2008
McCain 49%
Obama 47%
within the survey's 3.7 percentage point margin of sampling error and effectively unchanged from an identical SurveyUSA poll 4 weeks ago, conducted before both political conventions, which showed McCain 48%, Obama 47%.
Today's data reveals new polarization among young and old, and among Pro-Life and Pro-Choice voters, but the rest of the data is striking for its lack of movement. Among voters younger than Barack Obama, Obama had led by 2 points, now by 9. Among voters older than John McCain, McCain had led by 9, now by 26. Among Pro-Life voters, McCain had led by 37, now leads by 49, a 12-point gain. Among Pro-Choice voters, Obama had led by 26, now leads by 35, a 9-point gain.
There is zero indication in this data that the selection of Sarah Palin has altered how women view the race. McCain got 44% of the female vote a month ago, before picking Palin, today gets 43% of the female vote.
Public Policy Polling, Michigan
Obama 47%
McCain 46%
PPP surveyed 1,147 likely voters on September 6th and 7th. The survey’s margin of error
is +/-2.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce
additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
CNN/Opinion Research conducted September 5-7, 2008
Obama - 48%
McCain - 48%
Interviews with 1,022 adult Americans conducted by telephone
by Opinion Research Corporation on September 5-7, 2008. The
margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is
plus or minus 3 percentage points....BASED ON 942 REGISTERED VOTERS -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 3% PTS.
Diageo/Hotline Daily Tracker Poll
Obama - 44%
McCain - 44%
ABC
Obama - 47
McCain - 46
This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone
Sept. 5-7, 2008, among a random national sample of 1,133 adults, including an
oversample of African Americans (weighted to their correct share of the national
population), for a total of 211 black respondents. Results among the 961 registered voters
have a 3-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of
Horsham, PA.
And of course, the much discussed USA Today/Gallup poll, which is now looking like an outlier:
McCain - 54
Obama - 44