OK, so we Democrats had a good convention. The Republicans had a good convention. The race is pretty much all tied up, which is where it was before both conventions started.
So, how do we win this thing? What tactical messages can you expect to see from the Obama Campaign that will vault him over the finish line to 270 electoral votes first?
Well, it's really much more simple than you might think...
First, let me start by saying it's not remotely panic-time. All conventions, even Walter Mondale's in 1984 and Bob Dole's in 1996 (and they were both doomed to lose), produce a bump in the polls. And all convention bumps recede. This year, Democrats have a great environment, a terrific candidate, and a superb message to run with. Even better, the architecture of the state by state setting is such that the Democratic base of power is expanding far beyond the states that John Kerry won in 2004 - so John McCain has to spend lots of time defending his turf (while Barack Obama can expand his reach into competitive states like FL, OH, MO, VA, NV). In fact, there are even more battleground states this year, and all the new ones are traditionally Republican.
So, given all this, how does the Obama camp deal with the Republican ticket? Well, here are the messages I think you are likely to see (and are already seeing to some of) between now and election day. And they are very, very powerful indeed.
- John McCain = 4 More Years of George W. Bush
McCain can crow, "Change is Coming," until he's blue in the face, but his record is well - his record. Everybody knows McCain is a Republican, and everybody knows he supports 90% of the Bush policies. His one big maverick policy moment, campaign finance reform, was years ago. Sarah Palin may be exciting - for a Republican - but news reports are clearly beginning to crumble her maverick image. And polls show (regardless of bounce) that the vast majority of voters feel he would follow the same policies as Bush - and that's worth reminding them of.
- Sarah Palin = Everything you hate about the GOP in a Hockey Mom
She was for the Bridge to Nowhere before she was against it. She exercises her power to wreak revenge on her enemies. She thinks God sent us into Iraq and supports her idea of an oil pipeline. She even bilked the Alaska state Government for travel expenses while staying in her own house. How about Dick Cheney, Pat Buchanan and Jack Abramoff in a dress - all at the same time!
- Maverick = Reckless
By passing over dozens of well-qualified men and women as his VP pick, McCains choice of Palin is just the latest in a series of non-thought-out decisions McCain has made as an elected official. Cowboys invade countries that didn't attack us. Presidents defend the country strongly and responsibly.
- Obama and Biden = Authenticity
The entire Republican campaign may be very clever, but it's also very transparent. Barack Obama and Joe Biden may have very different backgrounds, but their greatest commonality is that they are exactly who they claim to be. That asset makes their assertion of change less risky and more hopeful.
You can already hear a good deal of this coming from the Obama campaign, and as the days go on, these messages will be honed. Expect no mercy from Senator Obama - in spite of what the media tells you. Barack Obama wants to win, and he will be forceful in getting there. These messages are the weapons he'll use, and very effectively. You can count on it.