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Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 9/8-10. Likely voters. MoE 4% (7/21-23 results)

Wicker (R) 48 (45)
Musgrove (D) 43 (44)

Wicker has the current advantage. This one is still tight, however, and well within striking range. The only other pollster polling this race, Rasmussen, last polled it August 21, and had Wicker with a 52-43 lead.

On the presidential front, Obama's single-digit deficit in July has given way to a big McCain post-conventions lead this time around:

McCain (R) 52 (51)
Obama (D) 39 (42)

Only 14 percent of white Mississippi voters currently support Obama. That number was 19 percent in the previous poll. If Obama could break the 20 percent mark, he would have an outside chance of picking off this state. Right now, that's not looking very possible.

Full crosstabs below the fold.

Update: I'd listed the McCain/Obama numbers incorrectly. They've been fixed.

MISSISSIPPI POLL RESULTS - SEPTEMBER 2008

The Research 2000 Mississippi Poll was conducted from September 8 through September 10, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the ?true? figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.


Sample Figures:

Men        287       49%
Women      313       51%

Dem        241       40%
Rep        270       45%
Ind         89       15%

White      378       63%
Black      222       37%

18-29      107       18%
30-44      184       31%
45-59      194       32%
60+        115       19%

Delta/Jack 224       37%
NE         161       27%
SE         215       36%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ronnie Musgrove? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not)?

         Very      Very       No
         Fav       Fav       Unfav     Unfav     Opinion

All       17%       33%       30%       13%        7%

Men       15%       30%       33%       16%        6%
Women     19%       36%       27%       10%        8%

Dem       28%       46%       14%        6%        6%
Rep        7%       22%       46%       20%        5%
Ind       18%       34%       27%       12%        9%

18-29     20%       37%       26%       10%        7%
30-44     17%       33%       29%       13%        8%
45-59     16%       32%       31%       14%        7%
60+       15%       30%       33%       16%        6%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Roger Wicker? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not)?

         Very      Very       No
         Fav       Fav       Unfav     Unfav     Opinion

All       18%       36%       28%       13%        5%

Men       21%       40%       24%       11%        4%
Women     15%       32%       32%       15%        6%

Dem        8%       21%       41%       21%        9%
Rep       26%       51%       16%        5%        2%
Ind       17%       34%       30%       13%        6%

18-29     14%       31%       34%       17%        4%
30-44     17%       35%       29%       15%        4%
45-59     20%       38%       25%       11%        6%
60+       21%       40%       25%        5%       11%


QUESTION: If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Ronnie Musgrove or Roger Wicker?

         Wicker    Musgrove  Undecided

All        48%       43%        9%

Men        52%       40%        8%
Women      44%       46%       10%

Dem         7%       84%        9%
Rep        86%        6%        8%
Ind        46%       45%        9%

White      73%       23%        4%
Black       7%       75%       18%

18-29      42%       49%        9%
30-44      49%       44%        7%
45-59      51%       41%        8%
60+        50%       39%       11%

Delta/Jack 42%       50%        8%
NE         52%       37%       11%
SE         52%       40%        8%


QUESTION: If the election for President were held today, would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Republican ticket of? John McCain and Sarah Palin, or another candidate?

         McCain    Obama     Other     Undecided

All        52%       39%        3%        6%

Men        55%       37%        4%        4%
Women      49%       41%        2%        8%

Dem        12%       79%        2%        7%
Rep        89%        4%        3%        4%
Ind        50%       39%        4%        7%

White      81%       14%        3%        2%
Black       5%       80%        2%       13%

18-29      47%       44%        2%        7%
30-44      54%       38%        4%        4%
45-59      53%       39%        4%        4%
60+        55%       35%        2%        8%

Delta/Jack 45%       48%        1%        6%
NE         57%       34%        5%        4%
SE         56%       34%        3%        7%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 12:11 PM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Ahh (10+ / 0-)

    Poll porn

    "For the love of god learn to think on your own" Me

    by givemhellHarryR on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 12:12:04 PM PDT

  •  Lies!! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sgilman

    Lies, Damned Lies And Sarah Palin

    She - along with the Iraq war - is the embodiment of McCain's claim to presidential judgment and experience. If she is a fraud, and has been proven a demonstrable liar in ways that a competent campaign would have vetted six months ago, McCain's campaign is over, and deserves to be over. As is the election.

    Do We Need Change, You're Damn Right We Do, And The World Needs Us To Change, Now!!

    by jimstaro on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 12:14:07 PM PDT

    •  Republicans adhere to the lie (3+ / 0-)

      that they are superior.

      That there is lying involved is not shocking.

      It is what they support.

      •  Yep (0+ / 0-)

        And one was just called out abit ago on MSNBC, just as I was waking from a nappy.

        Seems he didn't want to Actually Commit to his Charges on National TV, but the cat was outta the bag!!

        Do We Need Change, You're Damn Right We Do, And The World Needs Us To Change, Now!!

        by jimstaro on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 12:24:30 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  MS is alive and in play (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      kefauver, jimstaro, peteri2, wendyg

      I live here in probably the most progressive area in MS, Hattiesburg, which means still very conservative, NO ONE is talking about the election except the liberals.  We need more attention on Barbour's illegal move to put the federal Senate race on the bottom of the ticket, please people, I am not very computer literate but anyone who can spread the word on this egregious, illegal act it would be much appreciated.  IF there was a Justice Department in this country, I would have already contacted the US Attorney's office, but I have no confidence in that.

      "Is he ready to lead, my answer is no, Barack Obama is a gifted, eloquent young man [who should know his place and stay there] Joe "Racist" Liebermann

      by 4CasandChlo on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 12:18:49 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Looking decent. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wendyg

    It's probably our ninth best opportunity for a pick-up, which is pretty good, considering how close it is.

  •  Sen Webb - Congress Pushing Back (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SciVo, wendyg

    Senator seeks more say in Iraq agreement

    Sen. Jim Webb introduced an amendment Tuesday hoping to get Congress a place at the negotiating table in any security agreements with Iraq.

    Do We Need Change, You're Damn Right We Do, And The World Needs Us To Change, Now!!

    by jimstaro on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 12:14:42 PM PDT

  •  That is actually quite amazing (7+ / 0-)

    I can't believe we can't find 1 out of 5 Caucasian voters in MS to vote for Obama.  Is the place really that racially divided?

    Obama/Biden '08 - I see a landslide in our future. Give here!

    by nsfbr on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 12:15:12 PM PDT

    •  Yes it is (0+ / 0-)

      Mississippi is one place where a 3rd party run by Ron Paul or Bob Barr could pick off a lot of votes.

    •  I would not call that divided (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      FenderT206, kefauver, expatinparis

      I think the state made up its mind

      "For the love of god learn to think on your own" Me

      by givemhellHarryR on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 12:16:12 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  to be fair Kerry got about that too (0+ / 0-)

      so it's not just racial issues.....Bill Clinton probably didn't break 20% either or else he would have won the state.

      After Obama's eighth straight victory, Penn told reporters: "Winning Democratic primaries is not a qualification or a sign of who can win the general election.

      by nevadadem on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 12:19:56 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Poor education. (0+ / 0-)

      White voters in Mississippi are no where near as diverse in thought and educated as african-american and LGBTQ voters. White voters in Mississippi are ignorant to the information provided by stars of stage and screen and wonderful college professors as to our important people powered issues. I wonder soemtimes if Misssippi cable providers even carry MSNBC with KO and Rache?

      People power = LGBTQ marital rights = OBAMA '08!

      by kevinspa on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 12:32:58 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Obama isn't for Gay marriage rights. He barely (0+ / 0-)

        agrees with the whole civil union concept.  To be honest, I'm gay and I am not for gay marriage either.

        Sarah Palin is just another Karl Rove in stilettos.

        by uc booker on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 12:39:12 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Obama has promised a SCOTUS (0+ / 0-)

          Who will give us people powered fundamental rights. I was disheartened as well when Sen. Obama stated he doesn't "support LGBTQ marriage"; but was relieved when he told smaller groups that he will properly determine that a potential nominee supports LGBTQ marital rights before nominating her or him to the federal court. He has promised us people powered court victories at the federal level like we've got at the people powered state level courts.

          People power = LGBTQ marital rights = OBAMA '08!

          by kevinspa on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 12:42:46 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  they do (0+ / 0-)

        stop bashing my home state, my home state is no different from Kentucky IMO.  And yes we have MSNBC because my mother loves KO and Rachael.  They have Comcast.  Since I moved from MS I've encountered more racists people in Ohio than I have when I was at home.  So that's bullshit you're talking bud!  Dont' get me wrong there are stupid ignorant racist people for sure but they stay out in the country.  I don't go out there.  You'd get hanged if you're black.

        "this election is not about the issues it's about personalities" - Rick Davis

        by Hot Monkey on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 01:33:47 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  14% of white voters back ... (9+ / 0-)

    ...Obama in Mississippi. Wow. I'm not sure it was any worse than that when Freedom Summer was registering black voters 44 years ago. The New South still has a ways to go.

    I am an anti-imperialist. I am opposed to having the eagle put its talons on any other land. -- Mark Twain

    by Meteor Blades on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 12:15:20 PM PDT

    •  a long way nt (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      kefauver

      Government for the people, by the people

      by axel000 on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 12:17:54 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yeah but, (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Meteor Blades, kefauver

      the 14% is probably composed of 25% of the youth vote and 0% of those over 40.  Does that help?

      Seriously, I think it will take at least another generation in the deep south for the racial divide to be more like the rest of the US.  

      I was a bit more hopeful in the aftermath of Katrina, when the compelete meltdown of FEMA meant that the churches handled most of the relief and rebuilding, and there were generally good racial relations then.

      •  But Even A Generation From Now.... (0+ / 0-)

        ....when racial issues matters less, there will still be a whole new set of culture wars issues to keep the "New South" permanently distracted and passionately supporting politicians whose life's purpose is to destroy them.

      •  I'm 24 and White (0+ / 0-)

        and my wife and I are obviously Obama all the way.  And there's actually quite a few over 40 yr old white supporters for Obama, but it's extremely regional.

        There's extremely, extremely poor AA areas of the state, with incredibly bad school and work opportunities, with fairly reliable voter turnout in the democratic column.  

        There's very rural, very white, extremely conservative and equally uneducated areas of the state that are very reliable voters, plenty of voter fraud with voters going to multiple precincts, voting for dead people, etc.  There's just too damn many of these counties, and these are truly the unreachable types (my grandparents, God bless em, are unfortunately part of this category), and I have no idea what Democrats can do to reach these people.  From my experience, many of them are very elderly counties, so maybe things will change in the future.

        The only urban area in the state, the Jackson metro area, is predominantly Democratic.

        As far as Katrina goes, most people were obviously irritated at FEMA, but our Governor really did an OK job at handling things - yes, there's obviously been issues, but he did OK and most of the credit has gone to him, not to the Feds.  The reconstruction has also been a boon to tax revenues and jobs on the coast, shoring up Barbour even farther.

        John McCain on Iraq. Not leaving. Ever.

        by DargInMS on Fri Sep 12, 2008 at 02:15:16 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  With regard to the senate campaign (0+ / 0-)

          I'm going to say the DSCC is doing a REALLY SHITTY job of putting out anti-Wicker ads.  They've all been very weak, identical ads that make very lazy comparisons to Bush.  They mention he supports "NAFTA-which-ships-jobs-overseas," which I don't think is even resonating with Mississippians, especially in light of Musgrove being governor when NAFTA actually did the damage.  The 'guilt by association to Bush' campaign isn't going to just give the Dems a freebie Senate seat here.

          The Wicker campaign and the RSCC has had some GREAT ads against Musgrove, which are obviously McCain style untruths and distortions, but do a much better job of telling a story and actually assigning blame to Musgrove, particularly for this beef plant debacle from several years back.  The Dems really need to find a better way to combat that particular argument, I think.

          One race related comment, our state is very segregated still, with the exception of Central MS, and that's a generational thing, I'm afraid.  It is getting better, though, slowly.  Electing Barack will go a long way with that!

          John McCain on Iraq. Not leaving. Ever.

          by DargInMS on Fri Sep 12, 2008 at 02:24:43 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Come on Mississippi! (0+ / 0-)

      We can do better!  Let's go! Let's go! Let's go!  

      This campaign needs an enema and a shot in the arm!  Not a shot of bourbon.  Let's get rid of the crap, get focused and talk about why our candidate is the best choice again.  

      And OBAMA!  Bring back the Change speeches.  We need the high-minded rhetoric.  They're just roving you off of it.  It' s your greatest strength!

      "Do I contradict myself? Very well, then I contradict myself, I am large. I contain multitudes!" Walt Whitman

      by Batensmack on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 12:25:22 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I wonder (0+ / 0-)

      if we can calculate what % of white 18-29 yr olds are of Barack. Given he is doing better in that demo, it seems like more whites are voting for him. So maybe there's hope in 40 yrs.

  •  You listed the wrong figures re Obama (3+ / 0-)

    55 to 37 is among men only.
    It is 52 to 39 among all voters, men and women, according to your own charts.

  •  Perhaps women in MO (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Greasy Grant, axel000

    would be interested in hearing that Mayor Palin's police department charged women for their own rape kits.

  •  When do the dKos trackers begin? (4+ / 0-)

    Wasn't there a front page post a few days ago about a dKos tracker poll?  I'd like to see that... even though I know the national trackers are a lot less meaningfull than the state and congressional level polls.

  •  Looks interesting, high AA undecided in the (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    cjallen, vets74

    south. Which is not unusual. Let's say Obama wins 90% of the African American vote in Mississippi (a far assumption). It ends up being 52-44. Much better than Kerry did. If that is the case, it does have implications for the national popular vote. Even if Obama doesn't win any southern states, he's clearly going to do better in NC, MS, and VA than Kerry.

  •  When will you post the National tracking poll? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    RussTC3, axel000, tapu dali
  •  One oddity: Fundie backlash at Palin's church. (3+ / 0-)

    Those guys are into internecine warfare.

    As the details of her little coven get out, the Southern Baptist folks are gonna find lots of reasons to stay home.

    McCain is thought to be a member for convenience only.

    Meanwhile the living "ghost" of Carol McCain is worth a good 10% of turnout against the GOPpers.

    Carol McCain 2008

    The Hero dumped three kids, same time he dumped his wife to marry his rich hottie.

    Make sure all the GOPpers and DINO -whiteys know all about this.

    Character is what matters. In fact, its most of what matters.

    Droogie is as Droogie does....

    by vets74 on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 12:18:18 PM PDT

  •  the 13% black undecided voters (0+ / 0-)

    are all Obama voters but that means a 55-45 type loss in the state.

    After Obama's eighth straight victory, Penn told reporters: "Winning Democratic primaries is not a qualification or a sign of who can win the general election.

    by nevadadem on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 12:18:20 PM PDT

  •  NOTE ERROR IN DIARY #'s !!! (0+ / 0-)

    See my comment above.
    Your own figures show Obama down by only 13, not 18

  •  Breaking - Live Large Hadron Collider Webcam (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SLKRR, vets74
    - experiment underway

    http://www.cyriak.co.uk/...

  •  Here is yet (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    vets74, wendyg
    another example of how Obama's unwillingness -- or inability -- to fight back is costing us.

    If he aired an ad slamming McCain for his repeated lying, that would be enough to show he has some balls, and give him a boost with those white voters.

    Sure, the EC votes aren't much. But coattails might be enough to win that Senate seat, too, and that's a valuable prize.

    It's time for him to take the gloves off.

  •  Jeebus those numbers freaked me out (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    housesella, vets74, kkmama

    until I realized they were for MS. Man, I need a vacation.

  •  I wish it broke out married white Christians. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    kevinspa, kkmama

    They're the Republicans' one solid (albeit shrinking) demographic base. (Their opposition to gay marriage is self-defeating; they could really use the demographic boost.) So, I think it would be more telling to look at how is Obama doing with the unmarried and/or non-Christian whites than just lumping them all together.

    Doesn't John McCain look tired?

    by SciVo on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 12:20:42 PM PDT

    •  makes no sense! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SciVo

      I don't get why married white Republicans do not support people power. They need more education and information regarding the beauty and passion of LGBTQ relationships, but they are kept in ignorance by their own doing.

      People power = LGBTQ marital rights = OBAMA '08!

      by kevinspa on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 12:35:07 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  A downside to the Plain effect for the GOP: (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SadTexan, terjeanderson, vets74

    What if there are some really close Senate races in places like Mississippi and Norh Carolina?

    There will be tremendous pressure on John McCain to allow Plain to campaign in those states to help out the GOP senate candidates.

    This taking her from swoing states where McCain needs her to solid red states where he gains no advantage.

  •  I wonder how much of McCain's (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    vets74

    post-convention/Palin "bounce" is happening in states like MS, where, let's face it, we weren't going to get a majority anyway.

    •  Its mostly in the South. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SadTexan

      In fact, Obama is better off than before the two Conventions in both the Midwest and the West.

      There's also a desperation factor that'll drive GOTV in Midwest and West.

      We gotta win the EC.

      Period.

      Droogie is as Droogie does....

      by vets74 on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 12:26:43 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Your numbers make no sense, KOS (0+ / 0-)

    You show McCain ahead 55 to 37, but in the crosstabs you show him ahead 52 to 39.  That's a big difference.

  •  Good numbers. (0+ / 0-)
    A large part of the undecided vote are Blacks Musgrove currently leads Blacks by 75% to 9%. If you adjust out and divide the undecideds up according to the race trends then Musgrove is ahead by more than 1%
  •  Intrade now phony (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    givemhellHarryR, vets74, wendyg

    Its been depressing watching Obama's 60/40 advantage over McCain slip away. Today McCain took a big lead. I could hardly believe it but then I saw a new trade about Biden being replaced as VP and it's about the size of McCain's new lead. This is a paid psychout.

  •  I would be worried if (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    vets74, kkmama

    the state of Mississippi supported my candidate.

    So I see only tatters of clearness through a pervading obscurity - Annie Dillard -6.88, -5.33

    by illinifan17 on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 12:22:37 PM PDT

  •  Looks good if we can get the senate race back on (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    vets74

    the top of the ballot. This sure is depressing though:

    Only 14 percent of white Mississippi voters currently support Obama.

    I'd like to say think that this is simply because it's such a red state but when you look at the Musgrove #'s it makes you wonder.

  •  1966 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    vets74

    Mississippi has two Senate races this year--Sen. Thad Cochran (R) is a shoo-in for reelection for a full term, and Wicker will face Musgrove for the final four years of Trent Lott's term.

    Not since 1966 (in South Carolina), however, has a state simultaneously elected Senators of different parties. This bodes well for Wicker.

  •  I believe that there is a "reverse bradley effect (6+ / 0-)

    This place is so backward, that I would honestly believe that there could be a "reverse Bradley effect" in that white people tell pollsters that they are voting for McCain, for fear of shame (it is that bad, still).  My white grandmother in law, will not tell her husband that she is voting for Obama.  I think Obama will do better than he polls, and that more than 1 in 5 white men will vote for him.  But I believe in Hope also.

    "Is he ready to lead, my answer is no, Barack Obama is a gifted, eloquent young man [who should know his place and stay there] Joe "Racist" Liebermann

    by 4CasandChlo on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 12:24:08 PM PDT

    •  Men know instinctively that Palin's a fraud. (0+ / 0-)

      Maybe particularly in Mississippi.

      They still roll 'em dogs down there.

      Michael Vick style....

      The guys in MS know what a fighting dog is.

      For real.

      Palin's no goddam pit.

      She thinks she gonna sink her teeth in and tear something's front leg off ????

      Take a bone-breaking bite and keep fighting ???

      She's got her head up her ass.

      One of my pit bitches took on a pack of coyotes out in Wyoming, up between the Parks. She had dropped 11 pups and we had to leave her overnight. All 65 pounds of her.

      We found 6 carcasses. 3 right in front of the welping pen. Calamity tore the coyotes to pieces. Killed 'em and then went back when she ran out of enemies and broke bones till she got tired.

      Palin ain't no fuckin' pit.

      Droogie is as Droogie does....

      by vets74 on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 12:35:59 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  As the white guy in MS voting for Obama (7+ / 0-)

    there is only so much I can do.  I'm registering mainly African-American voters but so far have only one family member on board (and that under the condition that I don't tell our father about it-- he's still paying for her tuition).  It seems like the rest of the white population has their collective mind made up.  That's what you get when you're last in education and 2 out of the 5 radio stations in town are conservative talk.

  •  MSNBC 2003: Biden endoresed WHO?! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    vets74

    This probably won't help either. In it, Joe Biden is quoted as saying, ""I think that this is time for unity in this country, and maybe it is time to have a guy like John McCain — a Republican — on the ticket with a guy he does like. They do get along. And they don't have fundamental disagreements on major policies."

    Biden endorses a fusion ticket: Kerry-McCain

  •  McCain 52, Obama 39... (0+ / 0-)

    are the actual numbers, right?

  •  13% Black Undecided???? (0+ / 0-)

    Are they undecided on the candidate they want, or undecided whether they will really be allowed to vote this year?

  •  You MUST Watch This Video (0+ / 0-)

    This is unbelievable. McCain is really stupid and insane.

    Listen:

    http://www.youtube.com/...

    McCain: Palin Has National Security Experience Because She Knows About ‘Energy’

    Yesterday in an interview with an NBC affiliate in Portland, ME, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) was questioned about Gov. Sarah Palin’s (R-AK) national security experience. First, he tried changing the subject to the economy. When the reporter refused to let him slide away, McCain then offered platitudes about how Palin is "right" on every single issue while Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) is "wrong." Frustrated, the reporter again pressed him for a specific example. McCain simply replied, "Energy":

       Q: Well, you say you’re sure that she has the experience, but again, I’m just asking for an example. What experience does she have in the field of national security?

       McCAIN: Energy. She knows more about energy than probably anyone else in the United States of America. .... And we all know that energy is a critical and vital national security issue.

  •  5 Dollar Fridays for Obama (0+ / 0-)

    This Friday, take 2 minutes to donate your $5 for change.
    http://my.barackobama.com/...

  •  I was going to all Mississipp voters in 2 weeks (0+ / 0-)

    But am taking the advice of fellow kossacks and coordinating with the Obama/Biden campaign first. I have reluctantly agreed not to mention our priorities of LGBTQ marital rights, a strong separation of church and state, sensible gun laws and a strong stand against state sponsored murder, but look forward to perhaps persuading voters with less important issues to us as kossacks, but that might persuade the voters of Mississipp to support Obama/Biden and Gov. Musgrove.

    People power = LGBTQ marital rights = OBAMA '08!

    by kevinspa on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 12:31:09 PM PDT

    •  Ask what's important to the people you meet. (0+ / 0-)

      and tailor what you say to that.  Or ask a series of "What do you want more X or Y?" kinds of questions.  Understand what spending 12B/mo in Iraq actually means.  NASA's 2008 budget is 17B.  6 weeks in Iraq.  When they talk about what they perceive as waste, put it in perspective.

      -7.75 -4.67

      "Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose."

      by Odysseus on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 05:21:46 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Not Surprised. It's Mississippi. (0+ / 0-)

    I never thought Obama would win down there to begin with. Time to move on to states that are more realistic and not spread ourselves thin. However, the senate race still seems winnable.

    Owning a home is a success. Owning seven homes is excess.

    by kefauver on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 12:31:20 PM PDT

  •  Election Shenanigans in MS (0+ / 0-)

    Knowing the race is close, the Republicans are playing with the ballot.  See Digby.

    http://digbysblog.blogspot.com/...

    The theft of the election is my biggest concern.  How are we going to prevent it?

  •  MS-Sen. Note to diarists. DONATE buttons (0+ / 0-)

    I'm like Pavlov's dog.

    If you put a quick-and-easy
    DONATE
    button

    I respond.

    If I don't see one, I wait until ......something strikes me......mood......other donate buttons......?

    Media Reform Action Link http://stopbigmedia.com/

    by LNK on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 12:33:06 PM PDT

  •  Thanks for fixing the numbers, BUT (0+ / 0-)

    Kos, your reporting of the Presidential results ("Obama's single-digit deficit in July has given way to a big McCain post-conventions lead") is ridiculous.  First, it's only a change of 4 points.  Second, both numbers are well within the margin of error.  It may represent a slight shift to McCain (or it may not) but it certainly isn't as you described it.

  •  Mississippi, SC, NC, ND, SD, GA & every solid red (0+ / 0-)

    state, reliably red state was going to go home and vote republican.

    Anyone who thought for a second that Obama was going to carry SC, NC, GA, or Mississippi or other solid and reliable red states is just plain stupid or doesn't understand a freaking clue of how elections are won and on what basis they are won on.

    I just can't understand why Obama wasted all that money on advertisement in GA, SC, Mississippi and so forth for the whole month of June/July and part August. His campaign should heavily invested in Florida and Ohio. For god sake, Florida is moving in Obama's direction without him almost ever campaigning down here.

    These are stupid strategic mistakes and usually they are costly one too.

    Don't give a damn a/t each & every politician currently alive in the US. Last time i voted for the top part of the ballot was 1972. Never missed SB election

    by Mutual Assured Destruction on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 12:37:19 PM PDT

    •  Right on! (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      terjeanderson, Hamlets Father

      Any volunteers in SC, NC, ND, SC, and GA get your head out of your ass and quit right now. Stop registering voters. Stop making phone calls. Stop believing. Did you think you even had a chance?

      Go do something else, anything else, but please stop trying to win! Please close those dumb ass field offices. Please stop talking to your neighbors, family, and friends! Just stop it now.

      Kennedy beat Nixon by 0.1%, and won the EC 303 to 219

      by jamtown on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 12:44:40 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It is not about trying, it is about pure math. It (0+ / 0-)

        isn't there. The numbers are not there no matter how you square them, unless there is some kind of exogenous shock to the campaign such as a major scandal and so forth.

        Now, as for senate or gubernatorial races, that's another story. Those races are more local than anything else.

        And sarcasm is not a solution for hiding weak argument.

        Don't give a damn a/t each & every politician currently alive in the US. Last time i voted for the top part of the ballot was 1972. Never missed SB election

        by Mutual Assured Destruction on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 01:15:03 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  No, you're a demoralizer. (0+ / 0-)

          You're telling folks to not even try, and if they do they're "stupid." Your comments are demoralizing and help nothing. This is why progress isn't made. This is why folks in red and purple states don't bother to try. You're telling them their votes won't amount to a hill of beans.

          Kennedy beat Nixon by 0.1%, and won the EC 303 to 219

          by jamtown on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 01:37:42 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Well, that is why the Obama campaigned scaled (0+ / 0-)

            down their operation in the states i listed above.

            Yes, and Jim Martin in Georgia is very "happy" about that too.

            Don't give a damn a/t each & every politician currently alive in the US. Last time i voted for the top part of the ballot was 1972. Never missed SB election

            by Mutual Assured Destruction on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 07:50:27 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  I am sorry, but i'm a realist. Sources are scarce (0+ / 0-)

            in campaign and wasting them on state(s) that add nothing to your EV column is stupid and a waste time, energy and resources.

            State party do not need the campaign to spend money in their state(s) to be competitive. Let the DNC do its job and spend money in GA, SC, NC and so forth.

            Don't give a damn a/t each & every politician currently alive in the US. Last time i voted for the top part of the ballot was 1972. Never missed SB election

            by Mutual Assured Destruction on Fri Sep 12, 2008 at 01:52:03 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Uh he did NOT put up ads in SC or Mississippi (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      terjeanderson
  •  Doing a little math.... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    vets74

    In the Senate race, if you  assign the undecided Whites and Blacks proportional to how the decided people in both groups are voting....

    then Whites are 76-24 in favor of Musgrove and Blacks 91-9 in favor of Wicker.  Which would mean that Wicker wins if Blacks are 39% or more of voters.  In 2004, Blacks were 36.9%.  So that's within reach, I agree.

    On the POTUS race, Blacks are 92-6 for Obama, Whites are 83-14 for Bush.  For Obama to win, Blacks would have to be about 47% of the electorate, which isn't likely.

  •  http://www.democratbydesign.typepad.com (0+ / 0-)

    Download high res partisan posters that tell the truth about Republican poli-tricks. New poster every day!

  •  PUSH POLLING WHY NO CALL TO ACTION (0+ / 0-)

    Opinion Access Corp.
    47-10 32nd Place, Long Island City, New York, 11101
    888.489.DATA

    These people are push smearing obama all over the phones.

    Please call them and tell them to stop this illegal action meant to suvert our Democracy

    Dial # for company directory, then type 7232 to talk to the boss.

    Why no Rec diary or FP here on this, dont really get it?
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

  •  My white Mississippi relatives . . . (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, terjeanderson, degringolade

    . . . are votin' Obama. Not real happy about it -- they liked Hillary way more -- but they're votin' Obama.

    Except Ralph, but that's to be expected. But even Ralph supports Travis Childers.

    -4.25, -4.87 "If the truth were self-evident, there would be no need for eloquence." -- Cicero

    by HeyMikey on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 12:44:33 PM PDT

  •  Kerry only got 14% of the white vote (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    terjeanderson, degringolade

    Frankly, I am surprised Obama is even getting that much. With some people still undecided, he could get up to 15-17%. Would that put it in play? Probably not, but it seems insane that a state with such a large black population is so out of reach. We ought to start a relocation program where we give Democratic voters in the deep south relocation assistance to move where their votes will count!

    •  I attended (0+ / 0-)

      Boston University for a year (1996) before I ran out of money.  It is the only year that I felt my vote counted for anything.

    •  or more progressive voters should move to Miss (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      democrattotheend, Odysseus

      and augment our black and white allies there and change the politics of the state? Relocation can go both directions (but I'm not volunteering to move to Mississippi)

      Migration changes state politics -- the great migration of African-Americans from the deep south (due to racism and lack of opportunity) to the North means these states are less black than they used to be, and harder for Democrats to win in a post-voting rights era. We're seeing the same thing happening post-Katrina in Louisiana.

      But that same migration also created huge black populations in Chicago/Gary, Detroit, St Louis, Baltimore, Cleveland, Philadelphia, DC, New York, Newark, etc -- and changed the politics of those cities and states.

      And today, we hear that moderate white migrants from the north and (in some cases) Latino newcomers are making states like North Carolina and Virginia competitive, starting to change some of Georgia's politics, and maybe someday we'll see the same thing in Texas, Mississippi, Alabama, SC...

      Once social change begins,it cannot be reversed. You cannot uneducate the person who has learned to read...You cannot oppress people who are not afraid anymore.

      by terjeanderson on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 02:07:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Looks like TPM got the wrong MS-Pres numbers (0+ / 0-)

    On the plus side, they're listing these polls on their Election Central Poll Tracker.

    © sardonyx; all rights reserved

    by sardonyx on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 12:53:55 PM PDT

  •  From the number of ads I'm seeing (0+ / 0-)

    both of them pretty negative, but Wicker's more so, I'd say both sides think this one is close. I'm particular fond of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce pretending to care about Mississippi jobs.

  •  I notice 13% of AAs saying don't know... (0+ / 0-)

    that was a feature of the primaries. They all voted Obama in the end. Still Obama has a huge wall of white resistance in the State and he ain't gonna win it.

  •  MS (0+ / 0-)

    Has many colleges, my college Mississippi State, has lots of democrats.  What surprises me is that Missisppi, as a state, has the highest AA population in the country so why are they losing?  Ugh, see I don't believe this poll.

    "this election is not about the issues it's about personalities" - Rick Davis

    by Hot Monkey on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 01:28:58 PM PDT

  •  Is it just me or is a 4 pt bounce for McCain in M (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ILDem

    ississippi not a "big" bounce as kos writes it to be.  Plus look at the crosstabs a very high percentage of undecideds in this poll are African Americans.  Tells me that among those left to decide most come from Obama friendly demographics.  Not so sure kos should cast all hope aside just quite yet.  

  •  Musgrove Needs Our Help (0+ / 0-)

    This race is so much closer than I ever thought it could be, especially since the government of Mississippi seems to be against Musgrove.  I think we should help him out in whatever way we can- attention and money especially.

    Contribute To Musgrove

  •  Much depends on what Obama campaign does (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus

    The Musgrove folks are very much watching to see what the Obama campaign does in MS.  They need to see Obama open multiple offices in the state (at least three).  The thinking is that this presence drives up minority turnout, which pushes Musgrove over the line.  If Obama does not invest in the state in any significant degree, the thinking is that the seat is Wicker's to sneak off with...  The ballot location issue will play out in court across the next few days and weeks.

    If they had this race in March, the way Musgrove first sought, Wicker would have won it easily.  Perhaps Haley & co. were a tad too smart for themselves?

  •  Well (0+ / 0-)

    It looks like Wicker will probably eke out a narrow win here.

  •  musgrove/wicker race could tighten (0+ / 0-)

    After only negative ads slung at each other for what seems endless weeks, Musgrove has come out with a very moving personal story ad.  This should have a definite and positive effect on his numbers.

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